On a simplified solution of  climate-carbon dynamics in idealized flat10MIP simulations

Brovkin, Victor; Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Brizuela, Noel G.; Hajima, Tomohiro; Ilyina, Tatiana; Jones, Chris D.; Koven, Charles; Lawrence, David; Lawrence, Peter; Li, Hongmei; Liddcoat, Spencer; Romanou, Anastasia; Séférian, Roland; Sentman, Lori T.; Swann, Abigail L. S.; Tjiputra, Jerry; Ziehn, Tilo; Winkler, Alexander J.

doi:10.5194/esd-16-2021-2025

Articles | Volume 16, issue 6

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2021-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Earth resilience in the Anthropocene

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2021-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 16, issue 6

Research article

|

18 Nov 2025

Research article |

| 18 Nov 2025

On a simplified solution of climate-carbon dynamics in idealized flat10MIP simulations

Victor Brovkin, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Noel G. Brizuela, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Charles Koven, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Hongmei Li, Spencer Liddcoat, Anastasia Romanou, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Abigail L. S. Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, Tilo Ziehn, and Alexander J. Winkler

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Jul 2025	192	34	10	236
Aug 2025	636	40	10	686
Sep 2025	1,794	32	20	1,846
Oct 2025	156	26	10	192
Nov 2025	292	63	19	374
Dec 2025	388	117	18	523
Jan 2026	559	64	16	639
Feb 2026	279	39	12	330
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Jun 2026	27	11	4	42
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Aug 2026	49	32	35	116
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Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 16 Jul 2025)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Jul 2025	192	34	10	236
Aug 2025	636	40	10	686
Sep 2025	1,794	32	20	1,846
Oct 2025	156	26	10	192
Nov 2025	292	63	19	374
Dec 2025	388	117	18	523
Jan 2026	559	64	16	639
Feb 2026	279	39	12	330
Mar 2026	187	74	17	278
Apr 2026	184	54	10	248
May 2026	127	19	5	151
Jun 2026	27	11	4	42
Jul 2026	60	52	10	122
Aug 2026	49	32	35	116
Sep 2026	309	65	82	456
Oct 2026	165	83	33	281
Nov 2026	58	16	6	80

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Short summary

Idealized experiments with Earth system models provide a basis for understanding the response of the carbon cycle to emissions. We show that most models exhibit a quasi-linear relationship between cumulative carbon uptake on land and in the ocean and hypothesize that this relationship does not depend on emission pathways. We reduce the coupled system to only one differential equation, which represents a powerful simplification of the Earth system dynamics as a function of fossil fuel emissions.