We show that recent assessed updates to the future abundance and radiative forcing (RF) of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and tropospheric aerosols result in a 0.2 to 0.4 ⁰C rise in global mean surface temperature by the end of the century, relative to prior projections. For society to have confidence in achieving the 2 ⁰C warming limit of the Paris Agreement, the RF due to GHGs and aerosols must be placed close to the primary 2.6 W m⁻² Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenario (SSP1−2.6) over the coming decades.