Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1739-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1739-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
Research article
 | Highlight paper
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16 Oct 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 16 Oct 2025

AR6 updates to RF by GHGs and aerosols lowers the probability of accomplishing the Paris Agreement compared to AR5 formulations

Endre Z. Farago, Laura A. McBride, Austin P. Hope, Timothy P. Canty, Brian F. Bennett, and Ross J. Salawitch

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Climate models are some of our best tools for understanding future changes, especially how likely it is that we accomplish the goal of the Paris Agreement to keep warming to well below 2.0°C. Recent updates to radiative forcing estimates from greenhouse gases and tropospheric aerosols result in an increase in projected warming, substantially reducing the likelihood that we will meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.
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We show that recent assessed updates to the future abundance and radiative forcing (RF) of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and tropospheric aerosols result in a 0.2 to 0.4 ⁰C rise in global mean surface temperature by the end of the century, relative to prior projections. For society to have confidence in achieving the 2 ⁰C warming limit of the Paris Agreement, the RF due to GHGs and aerosols must be placed close to the primary 2.6 W m−2 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenario (SSP1−2.6) over the coming decades.
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