Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1739-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1739-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
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16 Oct 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 16 Oct 2025
| 16 Oct 2025
AR6 updates to RF by GHGs and aerosols lowers the probability of accomplishing the Paris Agreement compared to AR5 formulations
Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Maryland at College Park, College Park, MD 20740, USA
Laura A. McBride
Science and Technology Corporation, Columbia, MD 21046, USA
Austin P. Hope
Science and Technology Corporation, Columbia, MD 21046, USA
Timothy P. Canty
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland at College Park, College Park, MD 20740, USA
Brian F. Bennett
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland at College Park, College Park, MD 20740, USA
Ross J. Salawitch
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Maryland at College Park, College Park, MD 20740, USA
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland at College Park, College Park, MD 20740, USA
Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland at College Park, College Park, MD 20740, USA
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Megan J. Lickley, John S. Daniel, Laura A. McBride, Ross J. Salawitch, and Guus J. M. Velders
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13081–13099, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13081-2024, 2024
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The expected ozone recovery date was delayed by 17 years between the 2006 and 2022 international scientific assessments of ozone depletion. We quantify the primary drivers of this delay. Changes in the metric used to estimate ozone recovery explain ca. 5 years of this delay. Of the remaining 12 years, changes in estimated banks, atmospheric lifetimes, and emission projections explain 4, 3.5, and 3 years of this delay, respectively.
Laura A. McBride, Austin P. Hope, Timothy P. Canty, Brian F. Bennett, Walter R. Tribett, and Ross J. Salawitch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 545–579, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-545-2021, 2021
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We use a reduced-complexity climate model trained by observations to show that at the current rate of human release of CO2, total cumulative emissions will pass the 66 % likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5° or 2°C in about 10 and 35 years, respectively. We also show that complex climate models often used to guide policy tend to warm faster than observed over the past few decades. To achieve the Paris Climate Agreement, CO2 and CH4 emissions must be severely curtailed in the next decade.
Sarah E. Benish, Hao He, Xinrong Ren, Sandra J. Roberts, Ross J. Salawitch, Zhanqing Li, Fei Wang, Yuying Wang, Fang Zhang, Min Shao, Sihua Lu, and Russell R. Dickerson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14523–14545, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14523-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14523-2020, 2020
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Airborne observations of ozone and related pollutants show smog was pervasive in spring 2016 over Hebei Province, China. We find high amounts of ozone precursors throughout and even above the PBL, continuing to generate ozone at high rates to be potentially transported downwind. Concentrations even in the rural areas of this highly industrialized province promote widespread ozone production, and we show that to improve air quality over Hebei both NOx and VOCs should be targeted.
Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Malte Meinshausen, Jared Lewis, Robert Gieseke, Dietmar Dommenget, Kalyn Dorheim, Chen-Shuo Fan, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Thomas Gasser, Ulrich Golüke, Philip Goodwin, Corinne Hartin, Austin P. Hope, Elmar Kriegler, Nicholas J. Leach, Davide Marchegiani, Laura A. McBride, Yann Quilcaille, Joeri Rogelj, Ross J. Salawitch, Bjørn H. Samset, Marit Sandstad, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Christopher J. Smith, Steve Smith, Katsumasa Tanaka, Junichi Tsutsui, and Zhiang Xie
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5175–5190, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020, 2020
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Computational limits mean that we cannot run our most comprehensive climate models for all applications of interest. In such cases, reduced complexity models (RCMs) are used. Here, researchers working on 15 different models present the first systematic community effort to evaluate and compare RCMs: the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). Our research ensures that users of RCMs can more easily evaluate the strengths, weaknesses and limitations of their tools.
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Chief editor
Climate models are some of our best tools for understanding future changes, especially how likely it is that we accomplish the goal of the Paris Agreement to keep warming to well below 2.0°C. Recent updates to radiative forcing estimates from greenhouse gases and tropospheric aerosols result in an increase in projected warming, substantially reducing the likelihood that we will meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.
Climate models are some of our best tools for understanding future changes, especially how...
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We show that recent assessed updates to the future abundance and radiative forcing (RF) of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and tropospheric aerosols result in a 0.2 to 0.4 ⁰C rise in global mean surface temperature by the end of the century, relative to prior projections. For society to have confidence in achieving the 2 ⁰C warming limit of the Paris Agreement, the RF due to GHGs and aerosols must be placed close to the primary 2.6 W m−2 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenario (SSP1−2.6) over the coming decades.
We show that recent assessed updates to the future abundance and radiative forcing (RF) of...
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