Articles | Volume 16, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1267-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1267-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Beyond tipping points: risks, equity, and the ethics of intervention
Laura M. Pereira
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Global Change Institute, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Steven R. Smith
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity, University of Surrey, Brighton, UK
Lauren Gifford
Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, USA
Peter Newell
School of Global Studies, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK
Sebastian Villasante
EqualSea Lab-CRETUS, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain
Therezah Achieng
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Azucena Castro
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Department of Iberian and Latin American Cultures, Stanford University, Stanford, USA
Sara M. Constantino
School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs, Northeastern University, Boston, USA
Tom Powell
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Ashish Ghadiali
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Ben Smith
Department of English, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Coleen Vogel
Global Change Institute, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
Caroline Zimm
International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
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Narratives around tipping points, such as the need for
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Large-scale, accelerated societal transformation is required to address today's global challenges and to improve long-term sustainability. Human agency, the capacity to influence the outside world, is key in achieving societal change. We present a framework that examines the determinants of agency, the relationship between individual and collective agency and how collective agency can trigger large-scale transformation. We use the case of dietary change to exemplify our framework.
Friedrich J. Bohn, Ana Bastos, Romina Martin, Anja Rammig, Niak Sian Koh, Giles B. Sioen, Bram Buscher, Louise Carver, Fabrice DeClerck, Moritz Drupp, Robert Fletcher, Matthew Forrest, Alexandros Gasparatos, Alex Godoy-Faúndez, Gregor Hagedorn, Martin C. Hänsel, Jessica Hetzer, Thomas Hickler, Cornelia B. Krug, Stasja Koot, Xiuzhen Li, Amy Luers, Shelby Matevich, H. Damon Matthews, Ina C. Meier, Mirco Migliavacca, Awaz Mohamed, Sungmin O, David Obura, Ben Orlove, Rene Orth, Laura Pereira, Markus Reichstein, Lerato Thakholi, Peter H. Verburg, and Yuki Yoshida
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An interdisciplinary collaboration of 36 international researchers from 35 institutions highlights recent findings in biosphere research. Within eight themes, they discuss issues arising from climate change and other anthropogenic stressors and highlight the co-benefits of nature-based solutions and ecosystem services. Based on an analysis of these eight topics, we have synthesized four overarching insights.
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Narratives around tipping points, such as the need for
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negativeEarth system tipping points, do not take into account the entire spectrum of impacts the proposed interventions could have or still rely on narratives that maintain current unsustainable behaviours and marginalize many people. We unpack these ideas in the context of what they mean for the concept of tipping points, using a critical decolonial view from the Global South.
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Franziska Gaupp, Sara Constantino, and Laura Pereira
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1533, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1533, 2023
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Garry D. Hayman, Edward Comyn-Platt, Chris Huntingford, Anna B. Harper, Tom Powell, Peter M. Cox, William Collins, Christopher Webber, Jason Lowe, Stephen Sitch, Joanna I. House, Jonathan C. Doelman, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, and Nicola Gedney
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Topics: Sustainability science | Interactions: Human/Earth system interactions | Methods: Other methods
A global threshold model of enabling conditions for social tipping in pro-environmental behaviours – the role of sea level rise anticipation and climate change concern
The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to majority
Cross-system interactions for positive tipping cascades
Positive tipping points for accelerating adoption of regenerative practices in African smallholder farming systems: What sustains adoption?
E. Keith Smith, Marc Wiedermann, Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 545–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-545-2025, 2025
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Social tipping dynamics have received recent attention as a potential mechanism for effective climate actions – yet how such tipping dynamics could unfold remains largely unquantified. We explore how social tipping processes can develop by enabling necessary conditions (exemplified by climate change concern) and increased perceptions of localized impacts (sea level rise). The likelihood of social tipping varies regionally, mostly along areas with the highest exposure to persistent risks.
Jordan P. Everall, Fabian Tschofenig, Jonathan F. Donges, and Ilona M. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 189–214, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-189-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-189-2025, 2025
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A social tipping process is a large change in a social group that can be started by few people. Does the 80/20 rule apply here? We see if this is the case for human social groups. We find that, if the social conditions allow, change occurs when around 25 % of people engage. While tipping can happen between 10 % and 43 %, most cases tip by 40 %. However, tipping is not guaranteed: when people are resistant, trusted friend groups and context-appropriate messaging help the process along.
Sibel Eker, Timothy M. Lenton, Tom Powell, Jürgen Scheffran, Steven R. Smith, Deepthi Swamy, and Caroline Zimm
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 789–800, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-789-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Cascading effects through cross-system interactions are one of the biggest promises of positive tipping points to create rapid climate and sustainability action. Here, we review these in terms of their interactions with sociotechnical systems such as energy, transport, agriculture, society, and policy.
Antony Philip Emenyu, Thomas Pienkowski, Andrew M. Cunliffe, Timothy M. Lenton, and Tom Powell
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2531, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2531, 2023
Short summary
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This paper explores what processes could boost adoption rates for regenerative agriculture programs in Africa and draws on insights from successful rapid scaling of TIST in east Africa. Found that the cultivation of reinforcing feedback processes that strengthened the social capital around adoption and elimination of barriers to carbon accreditation for RA projects to be key success factors and possible opportunities new and ongoing RA programs to boost their adoption rates.
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Short summary
Earth system tipping points pose existential threats requiring urgent action. However, this imperative should neither increase risks nor perpetuate injustices. We argue that considerations of what needs to change, who is asked to change, and where the impacts will be felt and by whom are fundamental questions that need to be addressed in decision-making. Everyone has a role to play in ensuring that justice and equity are incorporated into actions towards a more sustainable future.
Earth system tipping points pose existential threats requiring urgent action. However, this...
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