Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 15, issue 4
Articles | Volume 15, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-987-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-987-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 15, issue 4
Research article
 | 
06 Aug 2024
Research article |  | 06 Aug 2024

Exploration of diverse solutions for the calibration of imperfect climate models

Saloua Peatier, Benjamin M. Sanderson, and Laurent Terray

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Annan, J. D., Lunt, D. J., Hargreaves, J. C., and Valdes, P. J.: Parameter estimation in an atmospheric GCM using the Ensemble Kalman Filter, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 12, 363–371, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-12-363-2005, 2005. a
Balaji, V., Couvreux, F., Deshayes, J., Gautrais, J., Hourdin, F., and Rio, C.: Are general circulation models obsolete?, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 119, e2202075119, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2202075119, 2022. a
Bellprat, O., Kotlarski, S., Lüthi, D., and Schär, C.: Objective calibration of regional climate models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D23115, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD018262, 2012. a, b
Bodman, R. W. and Jones, R. N.: Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity using observationally constrained simple climate models, WIRes Clim. Change, 7, 461–473, 2016. a
Chang, W., Haran, M., Olson, R., and Keller, K.: Fast dimension-reduced climate model calibration and the effect of data aggregation, Ann. Appl. Stat., 8, 649–673, 2014. a
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The calibration of Earth system model parameters is a high-dimensionality problem subject to data, time, and computational constraints. In this study, we propose a practical solution for finding diverse near-optimal solutions. We argue that the effective degrees of freedom in the model performance response to parameter input is relatively small. Comparably performing parameter configurations exist and showcase different trade-offs in model errors, providing insights for model development.
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