Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 15, issue 3
Articles | Volume 15, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-763-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-763-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 15, issue 3
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
13 Jun 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 13 Jun 2024

The impacts of elevated CO2 on forest growth, mortality, and recovery in the Amazon rainforest

Yitong Yao, Philippe Ciais, Emilie Joetzjer, Wei Li, Lei Zhu, Yujie Wang, Christian Frankenberg, and Nicolas Viovy

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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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Cited articles

Adams, H. D., Williams, A. P., Xu, C., Rauscher, S. A., Jiang, X., and McDowell, N. G.: Empirical and process-based approaches to climate-induced forest mortality models, Front. Plant Sci., 4, 438, https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2013.00438, 2013. 
Aleixo, I., Norris, D., Hemerik, L., Barbosa, A., Prata, E., Costa, F., and Poorter, L.: Amazonian rainforest tree mortality driven by climate and functional traits, Nat. Clim. Change, 9, 384–388, 2019. 
Anderegg, W. R., Klein, T., Bartlett, M., Sack, L., Pellegrini, A. F., Choat, B., and Jansen, S.: Meta-analysis reveals that hydraulic traits explain cross-species patterns of drought-induced tree mortality across the globe, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 5024–5029, 2016. 
Anderegg, W. R., Konings, A. G., Trugman, A. T., Yu, K., Bowling, D. R., Gabbitas, R., Karp, D. S., Pacala, S., Sperry, J. S., and Sulman, B. N.: Hydraulic diversity of forests regulates ecosystem resilience during drought, Nature, 561, 538–541, 2018. 
Birami, B., Nägele, T., Gattmann, M., Preisler, Y., Gast, A., Arneth, A., and Ruehr, N. K.: Hot drought reduces the effects of elevated CO2 on tree water-use efficiency and carbon metabolism. New Phytol., 226, 1607–1621, 2020. 
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The Amazon rainforest plays a crucial role in global carbon storage, and even a minor destabilization could result in considerable carbon loss. This study uses a process-based model to show that elevated CO2 concentrations have multiple and sometimes contrasting effects on the Amazon forest's carbon dynamics and vulnerability. The study thus provides valuable insights into the rainforest’s evolution in the context of more frequent and intense future climate extremes.
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Elevated CO2 concentration (eCO2) is critical for shaping the future path of forest carbon uptake, while uncertainties remain about concurrent carbon loss. Here, we found that eCO2 might amplify competition-induced carbon loss, while the extent of drought-induced carbon loss hinges on the balance between heightened biomass density and water-saving benefits. This is the first time that such carbon loss responses to ongoing climate change have been quantified separately over the Amazon rainforest.
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