Articles | Volume 15, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-763-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The impacts of elevated CO2 on forest growth, mortality, and recovery in the Amazon rainforest
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- Final revised paper (published on 13 Jun 2024)
- Supplement to the final revised paper
- Preprint (discussion started on 01 Feb 2024)
- Supplement to the preprint
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
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RC1: 'Comment on esd-2024-5', Anonymous Referee #1, 28 Feb 2024
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Yitong Yao, 09 Apr 2024
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RC2: 'Comment on esd-2024-5', Anonymous Referee #2, 09 Mar 2024
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Yitong Yao, 09 Apr 2024
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (13 Apr 2024) by Anping Chen
AR by Yitong Yao on behalf of the Authors (13 Apr 2024)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (15 Apr 2024) by Anping Chen
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (19 Apr 2024)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (22 Apr 2024)
ED: Publish as is (22 Apr 2024) by Anping Chen
AR by Yitong Yao on behalf of the Authors (25 Apr 2024)
Manuscript
The study uses a new version of the ORCHIDEE model to study elevated CO2 impact on forest growth and mortality in the Amazon in the past decades. The model was previously calibrated at several Amazon sites and was applied at regional scale with and without historical CO2 increase. The simulations with elevated CO2 can better reproduce the temporal trend of C gain and C loss estimated from long-term field plots. Comparison between the simulations with and without CO2 effects show that elevated CO2 increased both growth and mortality while the latter is caused by increased competition and elevated CO2 reduced drought-induced mortality. Further spatial analysis reveals that the CO2 effect is stronger in drier regions.
Overall, it is neat to use a model to separate the processes (CIM and DIM) over the Amazon. The manuscript is clear and well written. I feel the mortality response makes sense but I am not sure how much we should trust simulated growth responses to eCO2 as outlined below.
I am concerned that models overestimated average carbon gain and carbon loss by ~30% or more (3.0-3.5 Mg/ha/yr vs observed 2-2.5 Mg/ha/yr, Fig.3) in simulation A2 but not in A1. To me, this means simulations with elevated CO2 greatly overestimated baseline growth (and thus mortality), suggesting the CO2 fertilization effect might be overestimated. It would be important to explain this difference in baseline values.
In addition, the positive trend of carbon gains in observation is mainly due to increase from 1980s to early 1990s. I believe the trend is much weaker after 1990s and in the same Hubau et al. study, there was not growth trend in Africa, suggesting CO2 fertilization effect on growth is quite uncertain. For instance, van der Sleen et al. 2014 reported no growth simulation by CO2 from tropical tree rings. More recently, Jiang et al. 2020 reported eCO2 increased GPP but not woody NPP in an Eucalyptus woodland. Such allocation changes are briefly mentioned in Discussion (line 415 - 425) while I think it should be highlighted as one of the major limitation/uncertainty of the study. For example, how would your conclusion change if the CO2 effect on growth is overestimated by 50% - 100%?
Finally, since AmazonFACE is mentioned, it would be interesting to provide results from some short-term (e.g. 5-10 years, single site) simulation results using similar magnitude of CO2 increase. This can serve as a priori estimate of AmazonFACE results (not necessarily correct).