Articles | Volume 15, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-589-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Applying global warming levels of emergence to highlight the increasing population exposure to temperature and precipitation extremes
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- Final revised paper (published on 03 May 2024)
- Supplement to the final revised paper
- Preprint (discussion started on 16 Oct 2023)
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
| : Report abuse
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2126', Anonymous Referee #1, 12 Nov 2023
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', David Gampe, 16 Nov 2023
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2126', Anonymous Referee #2, 29 Nov 2023
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', David Gampe, 07 Dec 2023
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RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2126', Anonymous Referee #3, 30 Nov 2023
- AC3: 'Reply on RC3', David Gampe, 07 Dec 2023
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (24 Dec 2023) by Anping Chen
AR by David Gampe on behalf of the Authors (18 Feb 2024)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (19 Feb 2024) by Anping Chen
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (28 Feb 2024)
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (03 Mar 2024)
ED: Publish as is (05 Mar 2024) by Anping Chen
AR by David Gampe on behalf of the Authors (22 Mar 2024)
Manuscript
Review of "Applying global warming levels of emergence to highlight the increasing population exposure to temperature and precipitation extremes"
This study uses large single model ensembles to explore projections of climate extreme indices at global warming levels using an emergence-based methodology. The authors not only look at emergence of climate extremes, but also exposure to emergence and examine effects of methodological choices (order of operations).
This is a robust analysis and a well-presented study. I'm confident that it will make a useful contribution to the literature. I do have three major comments for the authors to consider though:
Major comments:
- A benefit of SMILEs is that they can be used to explore sampling as well as structural uncertainties. I think with Figure 3 in particular it would be useful to show a range of area of emergence as a function of GWL for each SMILE. This could be derived from bootstrapping the simulations and computing a confidence interval based on the resampled ensembles.
- Some SSP population projections aren't particularly compatible with some emissions pathways. As such, SSP1 population projection is unlikely to be compatible with having a high GWL. I would suggest that SSP5 populations are used in Figure 4 and that uncertainty estimation through bootstrapping (as discussed in the previous comment) is shown instead.
- The results shown are applicable to the climate under a very high rate of global warming, but it should be noted that they aren't applicable to slower warming or stabilised climate states (e.g. King et al. 2020 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0658-7) and Mitchell et al. 2016 (https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3055)).
Minor comments:
Figure 1: Could you check that the lines are plotted correctly. For some models the range appears considerably smaller than due to interannual variability alone in the observations. In Maher et al. 2019 (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019MS001639), the MPI range looks larger than is plotted here.
L190: There's a strange space that should be removed.
L200: "less" should be "fewer"