Articles | Volume 15, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-589-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-589-2024
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
03 May 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 03 May 2024

Applying global warming levels of emergence to highlight the increasing population exposure to temperature and precipitation extremes

David Gampe, Clemens Schwingshackl, Andrea Böhnisch, Magdalena Mittermeier, Marit Sandstad, and Raul R. Wood

Related authors

flat10MIP: an emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO2 emissions
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Victor Brovkin, Rosie A. Fisher, David Hohn, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Torben Koenigk, Charles Koven, Hongmei Li, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Andrew H. MacDougall, Nadine Mengis, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O'Rourke, Anastasia Romanou, Marit Sandstad, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Isla R. Simpson, Chris Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Abigail L. S. Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5699–5724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5699-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5699-2025, 2025
Short summary
Uncertainties in carbon emissions from land use and land cover change in Indonesia
Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Michael O'Sullivan, Maria Carolina Duran-Rojas, Thais Michele Rosan, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Louise P. Chini, and George C. Hurtt
Biogeosciences, 22, 3547–3561, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3547-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3547-2025, 2025
Short summary
Emergence of climate change signal in CMIP6 extreme indices
Nina Schuhen, Carley E. Iles, Marit Sandstad, Viktor Ananiev, and Jana Sillmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3331,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3331, 2025
Short summary
Biogeochemical versus biogeophysical temperature effects of historical land-use change in CMIP6
Amali A. Amali, Clemens Schwingshackl, Akihiko Ito, Alina Barbu, Christine Delire, Daniele Peano, David M. Lawrence, David Wårlind, Eddy Robertson, Edouard L. Davin, Elena Shevliakova, Ian N. Harman, Nicolas Vuichard, Paul A. Miller, Peter J. Lawrence, Tilo Ziehn, Tomohiro Hajima, Victor Brovkin, Yanwu Zhang, Vivek K. Arora, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 803–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025, 2025
Short summary
Sensitivity of climate effects of hydrogen to leakage size, location, and chemical background
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Marit Sandstad, Srinath Krishnan, Gunnar Myhre, and Maria Sand
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4929–4942, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4929-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4929-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Abatzoglou, J. T., Williams, A. P., and Barbero, R.: Global emergence of anthropogenic climate change in fire weather indices, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 326–336, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080959, 2019. 
Bador, M., Terray, L., and Boé, J.: Emergence of human influence on summer record-breaking temperatures over Europe, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 404–412,  https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066560, 2016. 
Blanusa, M. L., López-Zurita, C. J., and Rasp, S.: Internal variability plays a dominant role in global climate projections of temperature and precipitation extremes, Clim. Dynam., 61, 1931–1945, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06664-3, 2023. 
Ciavarella, A., Cotterill, D., Stott, P., Kew, S., Philip, S., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Skålevåg, A., Lorenz, P., Robin, Y., Otto, F., Hauser, M., Seneviratne, S. I., Lehner, F., and Zolina, O.: Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence, Climatic Change, 166, 9, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03052-w, 2021. 
Deng, X., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., Alexander, L. V., and Stark, C.: Projected Changes and Time of Emergence of Temperature Extremes over Australia in CMIP5 and CMIP6, Earth's Future, 10, e2021EF002645, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002645, 2022. 
Download
Chief editor
This study finds that >85% of the global population is exposed to warming nighttime temperatures robustly beyond natural variability, at a Global Warming Level of 1.5°C. This increases to >95% at 2.0°C. Daily maximum temperature follows a comparable trend. Thus, every small additional warming substantially increases human exposure to potentially detrimental climate conditions.
Short summary
Using a special suite of climate simulations, we determine if and when climate change is detectable and translate this to the global warming prevalent in the corresponding year. Our results show that, at 1.5°C warming, >85 % of the global population (>95 % at 2.0° warming) is already exposed to nighttime temperatures altered by climate change beyond natural variability. Furthermore, even incremental changes in global warming levels result in increased human exposure to emerged climate signals.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint