Applying global warming levels of emergence to highlight the increasing population exposure to temperature and precipitation extremes

Gampe, David; Schwingshackl, Clemens; Böhnisch, Andrea; Mittermeier, Magdalena; Sandstad, Marit; Wood, Raul R.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-589-2024

Articles | Volume 15, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-589-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-589-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 15, issue 3

Research article

| Highlight paper

|

03 May 2024

Research article | Highlight paper |

| 03 May 2024

Applying global warming levels of emergence to highlight the increasing population exposure to temperature and precipitation extremes

David Gampe, Clemens Schwingshackl, Andrea Böhnisch, Magdalena Mittermeier, Marit Sandstad, and Raul R. Wood

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-589-2024-supplement

Data sets

Applying global warming levels of emergence to highlight the increasing population exposure to temperature and precipitation extremes - Data & Codes David Gampe et al. https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.25428100

ISIMIP2b population input data Franziska Piontek and Tobias Geiger https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.892838

Model code and software

Applying global warming levels of emergence to highlight the increasing population exposure to temperature and precipitation extremes - Data & Codes David Gampe et al. https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.25428100

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This study finds that >85% of the global population is exposed to warming nighttime temperatures robustly beyond natural variability, at a Global Warming Level of 1.5°C. This increases to >95% at 2.0°C. Daily maximum temperature follows a comparable trend. Thus, every small additional warming substantially increases human exposure to potentially detrimental climate conditions.

Short summary

Using a special suite of climate simulations, we determine if and when climate change is detectable and translate this to the global warming prevalent in the corresponding year. Our results show that, at 1.5°C warming, >85 % of the global population (>95 % at 2.0° warming) is already exposed to nighttime temperatures altered by climate change beyond natural variability. Furthermore, even incremental changes in global warming levels result in increased human exposure to emerged climate signals.