Articles | Volume 14, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-697-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-697-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
30 Jun 2023
Research article |
| 30 Jun 2023
| 30 Jun 2023
Modelling the effect of aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing on the South Asian and East Asian monsoons with an intermediate-complexity climate model
Lucy G. Recchia
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, RG6 6AH, UK
Centre for the Mathematics of Planet Earth, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, RG6 6AH, UK
Valerio Lucarini
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, RG6 6AH, UK
Centre for the Mathematics of Planet Earth, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, RG6 6AH, UK
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Valerio Lembo, Federico Fabiano, Vera Melinda Galfi, Rune Grand Graversen, Valerio Lucarini, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1037–1062, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022, 2022
Short summary
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Eddies in mid-latitudes characterize the exchange of heat between the tropics and the poles. This exchange is largely uneven, with a few extreme events bearing most of the heat transported across latitudes in a season. It is thus important to understand what the dynamical mechanisms are behind these events. Here, we identify recurrent weather regime patterns associated with extreme transports, and we identify scales of mid-latitudinal eddies that are mostly responsible for the transport.
Valerio Lucarini, Larissa Serdukova, and Georgios Margazoglou
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 29, 183–205, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-183-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-183-2022, 2022
Short summary
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In most of the investigations on metastable systems, the stochastic forcing is modulated by Gaussian noise. Lévy noise laws, which describe jump processes, have recently received a lot of attention, but much less is known. We study stochastic versions of the Ghil–Sellers energy balance model, and we highlight the fundamental difference between how transitions are performed between the competing warm and snowball states, depending on whether Gaussian or Lévy noise acts as forcing.
Yumeng Chen, Alberto Carrassi, and Valerio Lucarini
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 633–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-633-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-633-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Chaotic dynamical systems are sensitive to the initial conditions, which are crucial for climate forecast. These properties are often used to inform the design of data assimilation (DA), a method used to estimate the exact initial conditions. However, obtaining the instability properties is burdensome for complex problems, both numerically and analytically. Here, we suggest a different viewpoint. We show that the skill of DA can be used to infer the instability properties of a dynamical system.
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Short summary
Simulations are performed with an intermediate-complexity climate model, PLASIM, to assess the future response of monsoons to changing concentrations of aerosols and greenhouse gases. The aerosol loading is applied to India, Southeast Asia, and eastern China, both concurrently and independently, to assess linearity. The primary effect of increased aerosol loading is a decrease in summer precipitation in the vicinity of the applied forcing, although the regional response varies significantly.
Simulations are performed with an intermediate-complexity climate model, PLASIM, to assess the...
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