Articles | Volume 14, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1295-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1295-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Dec 2023
Research article |
| 13 Dec 2023
| 13 Dec 2023
Scenario choice impacts carbon allocation projection at global warming levels
Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK
Ranjini Swaminathan
National Centre for Earth Observation, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Richard P. Allan
National Centre for Earth Observation, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Jerry C. Blackford
Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK
Douglas I. Kelley
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Phil Harris
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Chris D. Jones
Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Colin G. Jones
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9PH, UK
Spencer Liddicoat
Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Robert J. Parker
National Centre for Earth Observation, Space Park Leicester, University of Leicester, Leicester, LE4 5SP, UK
Earth Observation Science, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Leicester, Leicester, LE1 7RH, UK
Tristan Quaife
National Centre for Earth Observation, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Jeremy Walton
Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Andrew Yool
National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
Model code and software
ESMValTool: Scenario Choice Impacts Carbon Allocation Projection at Global Warming Levels ESMValTool repository & co-authors https://zenodo.org/record/8335060
Video abstract
Scenario Choice Impacts Carbon Allocation Projection at Global Warming Levels - Video Abstract Lee de Mora, Ranjini Swaminathan, Richard P. Allan, Jerry C. Blackford, Douglas I. Kelley, Phil Harris, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Spencer Liddicoat, Robert J. Parker, Tristan Quaife, Jeremy Walton, and Andrew Yool https://doi.org/10.5446/63240
Short summary
We investigate the flux of carbon from the atmosphere into the land surface and ocean for multiple models and over a range of future scenarios. We did this by comparing simulations after the same change in the global-mean near-surface temperature. Using this method, we show that the choice of scenario can impact the carbon allocation to the land, ocean, and atmosphere. Scenarios with higher emissions reach the same warming levels sooner, but also with relatively more carbon in the atmosphere.
We investigate the flux of carbon from the atmosphere into the land surface and ocean for...
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