Articles | Volume 14, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1277-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1277-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Dec 2023
Research article |
| 12 Dec 2023
| 12 Dec 2023
Synchronization phenomena observed in glacial–interglacial cycles simulated in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity
Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, 85521 Ottobrunn, Germany
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Matteo Willeit
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Niklas Boers
Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, 85521 Ottobrunn, Germany
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Department of Mathematics and Global, Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Related authors
Takahito Mitsui, Shunji Kotsuki, Naoya Fujiwara, Atsushi Okazaki, and Keita Tokuda
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-987, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-987, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics (NPG).
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme weather poses serious risks, making prevention crucial. Using the Lorenz 96 model as a testbed, we propose a bottom-up approach to mitigate extreme events via local interventions guided by multi-scenario ensemble forecasts. Unlike control-theoretic methods, our approach selects the best control scenario from available options. Achieving up to 99.4 % success, it outperforms previous methods while keeping costs reasonable, offering a practical way to reduce disasters with limited control.
Takahito Mitsui, Peter Ditlevsen, Niklas Boers, and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-39, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-39, 2024
Preprint under review for ESD
Short summary
Short summary
The late Pleistocene glacial cycles are dominated by a 100-kyr periodicity, rather than other major astronomical periods like 19, 23, 41, or 400 kyr. Various models propose distinct mechanisms to explain this, but their diversity may obscure the key factor behind the 100-kyr periodicity. We propose a time-scale matching hypothesis, suggesting that the ice-sheet climate system responds to astronomical forcing at ~100 kyr because its intrinsic timescale is closer to 100 kyr than to other periods.
Takahito Mitsui and Niklas Boers
Clim. Past, 20, 683–699, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In general, the variance and short-lag autocorrelations of the fluctuations increase in a system approaching a critical transition. Using these indicators, we identify statistical precursor signals for the Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling events recorded in two climatic proxies of three Greenland ice core records. We then provide a dynamical systems theory that bridges the gap between observing statistical precursor signals and the physical precursor signs empirically known in paleoclimate research.
Takahito Mitsui, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, and Eric W. Wolff
Clim. Past, 18, 1983–1996, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1983-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1983-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We provide simple quantitative models for the interglacial and glacial intensities over the last 800 000 years. Our results suggest that the memory of previous climate states and the time course of the insolation in both hemispheres are crucial for understanding interglacial and glacial intensities. In our model, the shift in interglacial intensities at the Mid-Brunhes Event (~430 ka) is ultimately attributed to the amplitude modulation of obliquity.
Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Akira Oka, Takahito Mitsui, and Fuyuki Saito
Clim. Past, 17, 1919–1936, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1919-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1919-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial periods underwent climate shifts between warm states and cold states on a millennial timescale. Frequency of these climate shifts varied along time: it was shorter during mid-glacial period compared to early glacial period. Here, from climate simulations of early and mid-glacial periods with a comprehensive climate model, we show that the larger ice sheet in the mid-glacial compared to early glacial periods could contribute to the frequent climate shifts during the mid-glacial period.
Takahito Mitsui, Shunji Kotsuki, Naoya Fujiwara, Atsushi Okazaki, and Keita Tokuda
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-987, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-987, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics (NPG).
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme weather poses serious risks, making prevention crucial. Using the Lorenz 96 model as a testbed, we propose a bottom-up approach to mitigate extreme events via local interventions guided by multi-scenario ensemble forecasts. Unlike control-theoretic methods, our approach selects the best control scenario from available options. Achieving up to 99.4 % success, it outperforms previous methods while keeping costs reasonable, offering a practical way to reduce disasters with limited control.
Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, Neil R. Edwards, and Stefan Rahmstorf
Clim. Past, 20, 2719–2739, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2719-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2719-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using an Earth system model that can simulate Dansgaard–Oeschger-like events, we show that conditions under which millennial-scale climate variability occurs are related to the integrated surface buoyancy flux over the northern North Atlantic. This newly defined buoyancy measure explains why millennial-scale climate variability arising from abrupt changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation occurred for mid-glacial conditions but not for interglacial or full glacial conditions.
Nils Bochow, Anna Poltronieri, and Niklas Boers
The Cryosphere, 18, 5825–5863, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5825-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5825-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using the latest climate models, we update the understanding of how the Greenland ice sheet responds to climate changes. We found that precipitation and temperature changes in Greenland vary across different regions. Our findings suggest that using uniform estimates for temperature and precipitation for modelling the response of the ice sheet can overestimate ice loss in Greenland. Therefore, this study highlights the need for spatially resolved data in predicting the ice sheet's future.
Takahito Mitsui, Peter Ditlevsen, Niklas Boers, and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-39, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-39, 2024
Preprint under review for ESD
Short summary
Short summary
The late Pleistocene glacial cycles are dominated by a 100-kyr periodicity, rather than other major astronomical periods like 19, 23, 41, or 400 kyr. Various models propose distinct mechanisms to explain this, but their diversity may obscure the key factor behind the 100-kyr periodicity. We propose a time-scale matching hypothesis, suggesting that the ice-sheet climate system responds to astronomical forcing at ~100 kyr because its intrinsic timescale is closer to 100 kyr than to other periods.
Clara Hummel, Niklas Boers, and Martin Rypdal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3567, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3567, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We revisit early warning signals (EWS) for past abrupt climate changes known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. Using advanced statistical methods, we find fewer significant EWS than previously reported. While some signals appear consistent across Greenland ice core records, they are not enough to identify the still unknown physical mechanisms behind DO events. This study highlights the complexity of predicting climate changes and urges caution in interpreting (paleo-)climate data.
Matteo Willeit and Andrey Ganopolski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1417–1434, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1417-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using a fast Earth system model we trace the stability landscape of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the combined freshwater forcing–atmospheric CO2 space. We find four different Atlantic meridional overturning circulation states that are stable under different conditions and a generally increasing equilibrium Atlantic meridional overturning circulation strength with increasing CO2 concentrations.
Christine Kaufhold, Matteo Willeit, Bo Liu, and Andrey Ganopolski
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2976, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2976, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study simulates long-term future climate scenarios to examine how long CO2 emissions will persist in the atmosphere. It shows that the effectiveness of carbon removal processes varies with the amount emitted. The removal of CO2 through silicate weathering is faster than previously thought, leading to a quicker reduction over time. The combined behaviour of different carbon cycle processes emphasizes the need to include all of them in models, as to better predict long-term atmospheric CO2.
Vasilis Dakos, Chris A. Boulton, Joshua E. Buxton, Jesse F. Abrams, Beatriz Arellano-Nava, David I. Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Lana Blaschke, Niklas Boers, Daniel Dylewsky, Carlos López-Martínez, Isobel Parry, Paul Ritchie, Bregje van der Bolt, Larissa van der Laan, Els Weinans, and Sonia Kéfi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1117–1135, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tipping points are abrupt, rapid, and sometimes irreversible changes, and numerous approaches have been proposed to detect them in advance. Such approaches have been termed early warning signals and represent a set of methods for identifying changes in the underlying behaviour of a system across time or space that might indicate an approaching tipping point. Here, we review the literature to explore where, how, and which early warnings have been used in real-world case studies so far.
Chenzhi Li, Anne Dallmeyer, Jian Ni, Manuel Chevalier, Matteo Willeit, Andrei A. Andreev, Xianyong Cao, Laura Schild, Birgit Heim, and Ulrike Herzschuh
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1862, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1862, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a global megabiome dynamics and distributions derived from pollen-based reconstructions over the last 21,000 years, which are suitable for the evaluation of Earth System Model-based paleo-megabiome simulations. We identified strong deviations between pollen- and model-derived megabiome distributions in the circum-Arctic areas and Tibetan Plateau during the Last Glacial Maximum and early deglaciation, as well as in North Africa and the Mediterranean regions during the Holocene.
Stefanie Talento, Matteo Willeit, and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 20, 1349–1364, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1349-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1349-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To trigger glacial inception, the summer maximum insolation at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere must be lower than a critical value. This value is not constant but depends on the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Paleoclimatic data do not give enough information to derive the relationship between the critical threshold and CO2. However, knowledge of such a relation is important for predicting future glaciations and the impact anthropogenic CO2 emissions might have on them.
Maya Ben-Yami, Lana Blaschke, Sebastian Bathiany, and Niklas Boers
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1106, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1106, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent work has used observations to find statistical signs that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may be approaching a collapse. We find that in complex climate models in which the AMOC does not collapse before 2100, the statistical signs that are present in the observations are not found in the 1850–2014 equivalent model time series. This indicates that the observed statistical signs are not prone to false positives.
Takahito Mitsui and Niklas Boers
Clim. Past, 20, 683–699, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In general, the variance and short-lag autocorrelations of the fluctuations increase in a system approaching a critical transition. Using these indicators, we identify statistical precursor signals for the Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling events recorded in two climatic proxies of three Greenland ice core records. We then provide a dynamical systems theory that bridges the gap between observing statistical precursor signals and the physical precursor signs empirically known in paleoclimate research.
Matteo Willeit, Reinhard Calov, Stefanie Talento, Ralf Greve, Jorjo Bernales, Volker Klemann, Meike Bagge, and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 20, 597–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-597-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present transient simulations of the last glacial inception with the coupled climate–ice sheet model CLIMBER-X showing a rapid increase in Northern Hemisphere ice sheet area and a sea level drop by ~ 35 m, with the vegetation feedback playing a key role. Overall, our simulations confirm and refine previous results showing that climate-vegetation–cryosphere–carbon cycle feedbacks play a fundamental role in the transition from interglacial to glacial states.
Nico Wunderling, Anna S. von der Heydt, Yevgeny Aksenov, Stephen Barker, Robbin Bastiaansen, Victor Brovkin, Maura Brunetti, Victor Couplet, Thomas Kleinen, Caroline H. Lear, Johannes Lohmann, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Sacha Sinet, Didier Swingedouw, Ricarda Winkelmann, Pallavi Anand, Jonathan Barichivich, Sebastian Bathiany, Mara Baudena, John T. Bruun, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Helen K. Coxall, David Docquier, Jonathan F. Donges, Swinda K. J. Falkena, Ann Kristin Klose, David Obura, Juan Rocha, Stefanie Rynders, Norman Julius Steinert, and Matteo Willeit
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 41–74, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper maps out the state-of-the-art literature on interactions between tipping elements relevant for current global warming pathways. We find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 °C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpasses 2.0 °C.
Kyung-Sook Yun, Axel Timmermann, Sun-Seon Lee, Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, and Jyoti Jadhav
Clim. Past, 19, 1951–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1951-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1951-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To quantify the sensitivity of the earth system to orbital-scale forcings, we conducted an unprecedented quasi-continuous coupled general climate model simulation with the Community Earth System Model, which covers the climatic history of the past 3 million years. This study could stimulate future transient paleo-climate model simulations and perspectives to further highlight and document the effect of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the broader paleo-climatic context.
Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Frederik Wolf, Niklas Boers, Dominik Traxl, Norbert Marwan, and Jürgen Kurths
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2645–2660, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2645-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2645-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Employing event synchronization and complex networks analysis, we reveal a cascade of heavy rainfall events, related to intense atmospheric rivers (ARs): heavy precipitation events (HPEs) in western North America (NA) that occur in the aftermath of land-falling ARs are synchronized with HPEs in central and eastern Canada with a delay of up to 12 d. Understanding the effects of ARs in the rainfall over NA will lead to better anticipating the evolution of the climate dynamics in the region.
Matteo Willeit, Tatiana Ilyina, Bo Liu, Christoph Heinze, Mahé Perrette, Malte Heinemann, Daniela Dalmonech, Victor Brovkin, Guy Munhoven, Janine Börker, Jens Hartmann, Gibran Romero-Mujalli, and Andrey Ganopolski
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3501–3534, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3501-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3501-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we present the carbon cycle component of the newly developed fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X. The model can be run with interactive atmospheric CO2 to investigate the feedbacks between climate and the carbon cycle on temporal scales ranging from decades to > 100 000 years. CLIMBER-X is expected to be a useful tool for studying past climate–carbon cycle changes and for the investigation of the long-term future evolution of the Earth system.
Maximilian Gelbrecht, Alistair White, Sebastian Bathiany, and Niklas Boers
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3123–3135, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3123-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3123-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Differential programming is a technique that enables the automatic computation of derivatives of the output of models with respect to model parameters. Applying these techniques to Earth system modeling leverages the increasing availability of high-quality data to improve the models themselves. This can be done by either using calibration techniques that use gradient-based optimization or incorporating machine learning methods that can learn previously unresolved influences directly from data.
Keno Riechers, Leonardo Rydin Gorjão, Forough Hassanibesheli, Pedro G. Lind, Dirk Witthaut, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 593–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-593-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Paleoclimate proxy records show that the North Atlantic climate repeatedly transitioned between two regimes during the last glacial interval. This study investigates a bivariate proxy record from a Greenland ice core which reflects past Greenland temperatures and large-scale atmospheric conditions. We reconstruct the underlying deterministic drift by estimating first-order Kramers–Moyal coefficients and identify two separate stable states in agreement with the aforementioned climatic regimes.
Taylor Smith, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Chris A. Boulton, Timothy M. Lenton, Wouter Dorigo, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 173–183, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-173-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-173-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Multi-instrument records with varying signal-to-noise ratios are becoming increasingly common as legacy sensors are upgraded, and data sets are modernized. Induced changes in higher-order statistics such as the autocorrelation and variance are not always well captured by cross-calibration schemes. Here we investigate using synthetic examples how strong resulting biases can be and how they can be avoided in order to make reliable statements about changes in the resilience of a system.
Takahito Mitsui, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, and Eric W. Wolff
Clim. Past, 18, 1983–1996, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1983-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1983-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We provide simple quantitative models for the interglacial and glacial intensities over the last 800 000 years. Our results suggest that the memory of previous climate states and the time course of the insolation in both hemispheres are crucial for understanding interglacial and glacial intensities. In our model, the shift in interglacial intensities at the Mid-Brunhes Event (~430 ka) is ultimately attributed to the amplitude modulation of obliquity.
Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, Alexander Robinson, and Neil R. Edwards
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5905–5948, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we present the climate component of the newly developed fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X. It has a horizontal resolution of 5°x5° and is designed to simulate the evolution of the Earth system on temporal scales ranging from decades to >100 000 years. CLIMBER-X is available as open-source code and is expected to be a useful tool for studying past climate changes and for the investigation of the long-term future evolution of the climate.
Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Keno Riechers, Martin Wibe Rypdal, and Niklas Boers
Clim. Past, 18, 1275–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In layer counted proxy records each measurement is accompanied by a timestamp typically measured by counting periodic layers. Knowledge of the uncertainty of this timestamp is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses. By assuming a Bayesian regression model to the layer increments we express the dating uncertainty by the posterior distribution, from which chronologies can be sampled efficiently. We apply our framework to dating abrupt warming transitions during the last glacial.
Keno Riechers, Takahito Mitsui, Niklas Boers, and Michael Ghil
Clim. Past, 18, 863–893, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-863-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Building upon Milancovic's theory of orbital forcing, this paper reviews the interplay between intrinsic variability and external forcing in the emergence of glacial interglacial cycles. It provides the reader with historical background information and with basic theoretical concepts used in recent paleoclimate research. Moreover, it presents new results which confirm the reduced stability of glacial-cycle dynamics after the mid-Pleistocene transition.
Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Akira Oka, Takahito Mitsui, and Fuyuki Saito
Clim. Past, 17, 1919–1936, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1919-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1919-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial periods underwent climate shifts between warm states and cold states on a millennial timescale. Frequency of these climate shifts varied along time: it was shorter during mid-glacial period compared to early glacial period. Here, from climate simulations of early and mid-glacial periods with a comprehensive climate model, we show that the larger ice sheet in the mid-glacial compared to early glacial periods could contribute to the frequent climate shifts during the mid-glacial period.
Keno Riechers and Niklas Boers
Clim. Past, 17, 1751–1775, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1751-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Greenland ice core data show that the last glacial cycle was punctuated by a series of abrupt climate shifts comprising significant warming over Greenland, retreat of North Atlantic sea ice, and atmospheric reorganization. Statistical analysis of multi-proxy records reveals no systematic lead or lag between the transitions of proxies that represent different climatic subsystems, and hence no evidence for a potential trigger of these so-called Dansgaard–Oeschger events can be found.
Denis-Didier Rousseau, Pierre Antoine, Niklas Boers, France Lagroix, Michael Ghil, Johanna Lomax, Markus Fuchs, Maxime Debret, Christine Hatté, Olivier Moine, Caroline Gauthier, Diana Jordanova, and Neli Jordanova
Clim. Past, 16, 713–727, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-713-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-713-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
New investigations of European loess records from MIS 6 reveal the occurrence of paleosols and horizon showing slight pedogenesis similar to those from the last climatic cycle. These units are correlated with interstadials described in various marine, continental, and ice Northern Hemisphere records. Therefore, these MIS 6 interstadials can confidently be interpreted as DO-like events of the penultimate climate cycle.
Johanna Beckmann, Mahé Perrette, Sebastian Beyer, Reinhard Calov, Matteo Willeit, and Andrey Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 13, 2281–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Submarine melting (SM) has been discussed as potentially triggering the recently observed retreat at outlet glaciers in Greenland. How much it may contribute in terms of future sea level rise (SLR) has not been quantified yet. When accounting for SM in our experiments, SLR contribution of 12 outlet glaciers increases by over 3-fold until the year 2100 under RCP8.5. Scaling up from 12 to all of Greenland's outlet glaciers increases future SLR contribution of Greenland by 50 %.
Reinhard Calov, Sebastian Beyer, Ralf Greve, Johanna Beckmann, Matteo Willeit, Thomas Kleiner, Martin Rückamp, Angelika Humbert, and Andrey Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 12, 3097–3121, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3097-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3097-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present RCP 4.5 and 8.5 projections for the Greenland glacial system with the new glacial system model IGLOO 1.0, which incorporates the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS 3.3, a model of basal hydrology and a parameterization of submarine melt of outlet glaciers. Surface temperature and mass balance anomalies from the MAR climate model serve as forcing delivering projections for the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level rise and submarine melt of Helheim and Store outlet glaciers.
Matteo Willeit and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 14, 697–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-697-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-697-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The surface energy and mass balance of ice sheets strongly depends on surface albedo. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, we explore the role played by surface albedo for the simulation of glacial cycles. We show that the evolution of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets over the last glacial cycle is very sensitive to the parameterization of snow grain size and the effect of dust deposition on snow albedo.
Niklas Boers, Mickael D. Chekroun, Honghu Liu, Dmitri Kondrashov, Denis-Didier Rousseau, Anders Svensson, Matthias Bigler, and Michael Ghil
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1171–1190, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1171-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1171-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We use a Bayesian approach for inferring inverse, stochastic–dynamic models from northern Greenland (NGRIP) oxygen and dust records of subdecadal resolution for the interval 59 to 22 ka b2k. Our model reproduces the statistical and dynamical characteristics of the records, including the Dansgaard–Oeschger variability, with no need for external forcing. The crucial ingredients are cubic drift terms, nonlinear coupling terms between the oxygen and dust time series, and non-Markovian contributions.
Denis-Didier Rousseau, Anders Svensson, Matthias Bigler, Adriana Sima, Jorgen Peder Steffensen, and Niklas Boers
Clim. Past, 13, 1181–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1181-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1181-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the analysis of δ18O and dust in the Greenland ice cores, and a critical study of their source variations, reconciles these records with those observed on the Eurasian continent. We demonstrate the link between European and Chinese loess sequences, dust records in Greenland, and variations in the North Atlantic sea ice extent. The sources of the emitted and transported dust material are variable and relate to different environments.
Niklas Boers, Bedartha Goswami, and Michael Ghil
Clim. Past, 13, 1169–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a Bayesian framework to represent layer-counted proxy records as probability distributions on error-free time axes, accounting for both proxy and dating errors. Our method is applied to NGRIP δ18O data, revealing that the cumulative dating errors lead to substantial uncertainties for the older parts of the record. Applying our method to the widely used radiocarbon comparison curve derived from varved sediments of Lake Suigetsu provides the complete uncertainties of this curve.
Matteo Willeit and Andrey Ganopolski
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3817–3857, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3817-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3817-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
PALADYN is presented; it is a new comprehensive and computationally efficient land surface–vegetation–carbon cycle model designed to be used in Earth system models of intermediate complexity for long-term simulations and paleoclimate studies.
M. Willeit and A. Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 11, 1165–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1165-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1165-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we explore the permafrost–ice-sheet interaction using the fully coupled climate–ice-sheet model CLIMBER-2 with the addition of a newly developed permafrost module. We find that permafrost has a moderate but significant effect on ice sheet dynamics during the last glacial cycle. In particular at the Last Glacial Maximum the inclusion of permafrost leads to a 15m sea level equivalent increase in Northern Hemisphere ice volume when permafrost is included.
D. Dalmonech, A. M. Foley, A. Anav, P. Friedlingstein, A. D. Friend, M. Kidston, M. Willeit, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-2083-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-2083-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
M. Willeit, A. Ganopolski, and G. Feulner
Biogeosciences, 11, 17–32, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-17-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-17-2014, 2014
M. Willeit, A. Ganopolski, and G. Feulner
Clim. Past, 9, 1749–1759, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1749-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1749-2013, 2013
Cited articles
Ashwin, P. and Ditlevsen, P.: The middle Pleistocene transition as a generic bifurcation on a slow manifold, Clim. Dynam., 45, 2683–2695, 2015. a
Barker, S., Starr, A., van der Lubbe, J., Doughty, A., Knorr, G., Conn, S., Lordsmith, S., Owen, L., Nederbragt, A., Hemming, S., Hall, I., Levay, L., and IODP Exp 361 Shipboard Scientific Party: Persistent influence of precession on northern ice sheet variability since the early Pleistocene, Science, 376, 961–967, 2022. a, b
Bereiter, B., Eggleston, S., Schmitt, J., Nehrbass-Ahles, C., Stocker, T. F., Fischer, H., Kipfstuhl, S., and Chappellaz, J.: Revision of the EPICA Dome C CO2 record from 800 to 600 kyr before present, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 542–549, 2015. a
Berends, C. J., Köhler, P., Lourens, L. J., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: On the Cause of the Mid-Pleistocene Transition, Rev. Geophys., 59, e2020RG000727, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000727,2021. a, b
Berger, A., Li, X., and Loutre, M.-F.: Modelling northern hemisphere ice volume over the last 3 Ma, Quaternary Sci. Revi., 18, 1–11, 1999. a
Berger, A., Mélice, J., and Loutre, M.-F.: On the origin of the 100-kyr cycles in the astronomical forcing, Paleoceanography, 20, PA4019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005PA001173, 2005. a
Bintanja, R. and Van de Wal, R.: North American ice-sheet dynamics and the onset of 100,000-year glacial cycles, Nature, 454, 869–872, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07158, 2008. a, b
Bosio, A., Salizzoni, P., and Camporeale, C.: Coherence resonance in paleoclimatic modeling, Clim. Dynam., 60, 995–1008, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06351-9, 2022. a
Brovkin, V., Ganopolski, A., Archer, D., and Munhoven, G.: Glacial CO2 cycle as a succession of key physical and biogeochemical processes, Clim. Past, 8, 251–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-251-2012, 2012. a, b
Chalk, T. B., Hain, M. P., Foster, G. L., Rohling, E. J., Sexton, P. F., Badger, M. P. S., Cherry, S. G., Hasenfratz, A. P., Haug, G. H., Jaccard, S. L., Martinez-Garcia, A., Palike, H., Pancost, R. D., and Wilson, P. A.: Causes of ice age intensification across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114, 13114–13119, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1702143114, 2017. a
Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., Sinha, A., Spötl, C., Yi, L., Chen, S., Kelly, M., Kathayat, G., Wang, X., Li, X., Kong, X., Wang, Y., Ning, Y., and Zhang, H.: The Asian monsoon over the past 640,000 years and ice age terminations, Nature, 534, 640–646, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18591, 2016. a
Clark, P. U. and Pollard, D.: Origin of the middle Pleistocene transition by ice sheet erosion of regolith, Paleoceanography, 13, 1–9, 1998. a
Clark, P. U., Shakun, J., Rosenthal, Y., Köhler, P., Schrag, D., Pollard, D., Liu, Z., and Bartlein, P.: Requiem for the Regolith Hypothesis: Sea-Level and Temperature Reconstructions Provide a New Template for the Middle Pleistocene Transition, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13981, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13981, 2021. a
Crucifix, M.: Oscillators and relaxation phenomena in Pleistocene climate theory, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 370, 1140–1165, 2012. a
Crucifix, M.: Why could ice ages be unpredictable?, Clim. Past, 9, 2253–2267, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2253-2013, 2013. a, b
Ditlevsen, P. D.: Extension of stochastic resonance in the dynamics of ice ages, Chem. Phys., 375, 403–409, 2010. a
Ford, H. L. and Chalk, T. B.: The Mid-Pleistocene Enigma, Oceanography, 33, 101–103, 2020. a
Ganopolski, A. and Brovkin, V.: Simulation of climate, ice sheets and CO2 evolution during the last four glacial cycles with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, Clim. Past, 13, 1695–1716, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1695-2017, 2017. a, b, c, d
Ganopolski, A., Petoukhov, V., Rahmstorf, S., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Eliseev, A., and Kubatzki, C.: CLIMBER-2: a climate system model of intermediate complexity. Part II: model sensitivity, Clim. Dynam., 17, 735–751, 2001. a
Ghil, M. and Childress, S.: Topics in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics: Atmospheric Dynamics, Dynamo Theory, and Climate Dynamics, Springer Science + Business Media, Berlin/Heidelberg, Vol. 60, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-1052-8, 1987. a
Greve, R.: Application of a polythermal three-dimensional ice sheet model to the Greenland ice sheet: response to steady-state and transient climate scenarios, J. Clim., 10, 901–918, 1997. a
Hagelberg, T., Pisias, N., and Elgar, S.: Linear and nonlinear couplings between orbital forcing and the marine δ18O record during the Late Neocene, Paleoceanography, 6, 729–746, 1991. a
Hays, J. D., Imbrie, J., and Shackleton, N. J.: Variations in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages, Science, 194, 1121–1132, 1976. a
Huybers, P.: Early Pleistocene glacial cycles and the integrated summer insolation forcing, Science, 313, 508–511, 2006. a
Huybers, P.: Combined obliquity and precession pacing of late Pleistocene deglaciations, Nature, 480, 229–232, 2011. a
Huybers, P. and Langmuir, C.: Feedback between deglaciation, volcanism, and atmospheric CO2, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 286, 479–491, 2009. a
Huybers, P. and Tziperman, E.: Integrated summer insolation forcing and 40,000-year glacial cycles: The perspective from an ice-sheet/energy-balance model, Paleoceanography, 23, PA1208, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007PA001463, 2008. a
Huybers, P. and Wunsch, C.: Obliquity pacing of the late Pleistocene glacial terminations, Nature, 434, 491–494, 2005. a
Imbrie, J., Boyle, E. A., Clemens, S. C., Duffy, A., Howard, W. R., Kukla, G., Kutzbach, J., Martinson, D. G., McIntyre, A., Mix, A. C., Molfino, B., Morley, J. J., Peterson, L. C., Pisias, N. G., Prell, W. L., Raymo, M. E., Shackleton, N. J., and Toggweiler, J. R.: On the structure and origin of major glaciation cycles 1. Linear responses to Milankovitch forcing, Paleoceanography, 7, 701–738, 1992. a
Imbrie, J., Berger, A., Boyle, E. A., Clemens, S. C., Duffy, A., Howard, W. R., Kukla, G., Kutzbach, J., Martinson, D. G., McIntyre, A., Mix, A. C., Molfino, B., Morley, J. J., Peterson, L. C., Pisias, N. G., Prell, W. L., Raymo, M. E., Shackleton, N. J., and Toggweiler, J. R.: On the structure and origin of major glaciation cycles 2. The 100,000-year cycle, Paleoceanography, 8, 699–735, 1993. a, b
Imbrie, J. Z., Imbrie-Moore, A., and Lisiecki, L. E.: A phase-space model for Pleistocene ice volume, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 307, 94–102, 2011. a
Jouzel, J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Cattani, O., Dreyfus, G., Falourd, S., Hoffmann, G., Minster, B., Nouet, J., Barnola, J. M., Chappellaz, J., Fischer, H., Gallet, J. C., Johnsen, S., Leuenberger, M., Loulergue, L., Luethi, D., Oerter, H., Parrenin, F., Raisbeck, G., Raynaud, D., Schilt, A., Schwander, J., Selmo, E., Souchez, R., Spahni, R., Stauffer, B., Steffensen, J. P., Stenni, B., Stocker, T. F., Tison, J. L., Werner, M., and Wolff, E. W.: Orbital and millennial Antarctic climate variability over the past 800,000 years, Science, 317, 793–796, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1141038, 2007. a
Le Treut, H. and Ghil, M.: Orbital forcing, climatic interactions, and glaciation cycles, J. Geophys. Res.-Ocean., 88, 5167–5190, 1983. a
Legrain, E., Parrenin, F., and Capron, E.: A gradual change is more likely to have caused the Mid-Pleistocene Transition than an abrupt event, Commun. Earth Environ., 4, 90, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00754-0, 2023. a, b
Liautaud, P. R., Hodell, D. A., and Huybers, P. J.: Detection of significant climatic precession variability in early Pleistocene glacial cycles, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 536, 116137, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2020.116137, 2020. a, b
Lüthi, D., Le Floch, M., Bereiter, B., Blunier, T., Barnola, J. M., Siegenthaler, U., Raynaud, D., Jouzel, J., Fischer, H., Kawamura, K., and Stocker, T. F.: High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000–800,000 years before present, Nature, 453, 379–382, 2008. a
Maasch, K. A. and Saltzman, B.: A low-order dynamical model of global climatic variability over the full Pleistocene, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 95, 1955–1963, 1990. a
Matteucci, G.: Orbital forcing in a stochastic resonance model of the Late-Pleistocene climatic variations, Clim. Dynam., 3, 179–190, 1989. a
Milankovitch, M.: Kanon der erdbestahlung und seine anwendung auf das eiszeitproblem, 133, Königlich Serbische Academie, Belgrade, 1–633, 1941. a
Mitsui, T. and Aihara, K.: Dynamics between order and chaos in conceptual models of glacial cycles, Clim. Dynam., 42, 3087–3099, 2014. a
Mitsui, T. and Crucifix, M.: Effects of additive noise on the stability of glacial cycles, in: Mathematical Paradigms of Climate Science, edited by: Ancona, F., Cannarsa, P., Jones, C., and Portaluri, A., Springer INdAM Series, Vol. 15, Springer, Cham, 93–113, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-39092-5_6, 2016. a
Mori, T. and Kai, S.: Noise-induced entrainment and stochastic resonance in human brain waves, Phys. Rev. Lett., 88, 218101, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.88.218101, 2002. a
Paillard, D.: Glacial cycles: toward a new paradigm, Rev. Geophys., 39, 325–346, 2001. a
Parrenin, F. and Paillard, D.: Terminations VI and VIII (∼ 530 and ∼ 720 kyr BP) tell us the importance of obliquity and precession in the triggering of deglaciations, Clim. Past, 8, 2031–2037, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-2031-2012, 2012. a
Pelletier, J. D.: Coherence resonance and ice ages, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, 4645, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD003120, 2003. a
Peltier, W. R. and Marshall, S.: Coupled energy-balance/ice-sheet model simulations of the glacial cycle: A possible connection between terminations and terrigenous dust, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 100, 14269–14289, 1995. a
Petit, J. R., Jouzel, J., Raynaud, D., Barkov, N. I., Barnola, J.-M., Basile, I., Bender, M., Chappellaz, J., Davis, M., Delaygue, G., Delmotte, M., Kotlyakov, V. M., Legrand, M., Lipenkov, V. Y., Lorius, C., PÉpin, L., Ritz, C., Saltzman, E., and Stievenard, M: Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica, Nature, 399, 429–436, 1999. a
Petoukhov, V., Ganopolski, A., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Eliseev, A., Kubatzki, C., and Rahmstorf, S.: CLIMBER-2: a climate system model of intermediate complexity. Part I: model description and performance for present climate, Clim. Dynam., 16, 1–17, 2000. a
R Core Team: R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, https://www.R-project.org/ (last access: 2 December 2023), 2020. a
Raymo, M. E. and Nisancioglu, K. H.: The 41 kyr world: Milankovitch's other unsolved mystery, Paleoceanography, 18, 1011, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002PA000791, 2003. a
Riechers, K., Mitsui, T., Boers, N., and Ghil, M.: Orbital insolation variations, intrinsic climate variability, and Quaternary glaciations, Clim. Past, 18, 863–893, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-863-2022, 2022. a
Rohling, E., Foster, G. L., Grant, K., Marino, G., Roberts, A., Tamisiea, M. E., and Williams, F.: Sea-level and deep-sea-temperature variability over the past 5.3 million years, Nature, 508, 477–482, 2014. a
Saltzman, B., Maasch, K., and Hansen, A.: The late Quaternary glaciations as the response of a three-component feedback system to Earth-orbital forcing, J. Atmos. Sci., 41, 3380–3389, 1984. a
Snyder, C. W.: Evolution of global temperature over the past two million years, Nature, 538, 226–228, 2016. a
Spratt, R. M. and Lisiecki, L. E.: A Late Pleistocene sea level stack, Clim. Past, 12, 1079–1092, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1079-2016, 2016. a
Tziperman, E., Raymo, M. E., Huybers, P., and Wunsch, C.: Consequences of pacing the Pleistocene 100 kyr ice ages by nonlinear phase locking to Milankovitch forcing, Paleoceanography, 21, PA4206, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005PA001241, 2006. a
Verbitsky, M. Y., Crucifix, M., and Volobuev, D. M.: A theory of Pleistocene glacial rhythmicity, Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1025–1043, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1025-2018, 2018. a, b
Willeit, M., Ganopolski, A., Calov, R., Brovkin, V.: Global mean CO2, temperature and sea level data from transient model simulations of Quaternary glacial cycles, PANGAEA [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.902277, 2019b. a
Willeit, M., Ganopolski, A., Robinson, A., and Edwards, N. R.: The Earth system model CLIMBER-X v1.0 – Part 1: Climate model description and validation, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5905–5948, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, 2022. a
Willeit, M., Ilyina, T., Liu, B., Heinze, C., Perrette, M., Heinemann, M., Dalmonech, D., Brovkin, V., Munhoven, G., Börker, J., Hartmann, J., Romero-Mujalli, G., and Ganopolski, A.: The Earth system model CLIMBER-X v1.0 – Part 2: The global carbon cycle, Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3501–3534, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3501-2023, 2023. a
Zhou, C., Kurths, J., Allaria, E., Boccaletti, S., Meucci, R., and Arecchi, F.: Noise-enhanced synchronization of homoclinic chaos in a CO2 laser, Phys. Rev. E, 67, 015205, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.67.015205, 2003. a
Short summary
The glacial–interglacial cycles of the Quaternary exhibit 41 kyr periodicity before the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) around 1.2–0.8 Myr ago and ~100 kyr periodicity after that. The mechanism generating these periodicities remains elusive. Through an analysis of an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2, we show that the dominant periodicities of glacial cycles can be explained from the viewpoint of synchronization theory.
The glacial–interglacial cycles of the Quaternary exhibit 41 kyr periodicity before the...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint