Articles | Volume 14, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1277-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1277-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Dec 2023
Research article |
| 12 Dec 2023
| 12 Dec 2023
Synchronization phenomena observed in glacial–interglacial cycles simulated in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity
Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, 85521 Ottobrunn, Germany
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Matteo Willeit
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Niklas Boers
Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, 85521 Ottobrunn, Germany
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Department of Mathematics and Global, Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
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Takahito Mitsui, Peter Ditlevsen, Niklas Boers, and Michel Crucifix
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The late Pleistocene glacial cycles are dominated by a 100-kyr periodicity, rather than other major astronomical periods like 19, 23, 41, or 400 kyr. Various models propose distinct mechanisms to explain this, but their diversity may obscure the key factor behind the 100-kyr periodicity. We propose a time-scale matching hypothesis, suggesting that the ice-sheet climate system responds to astronomical forcing at ~100 kyr because its intrinsic timescale is closer to 100 kyr than to other periods.
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In general, the variance and short-lag autocorrelations of the fluctuations increase in a system approaching a critical transition. Using these indicators, we identify statistical precursor signals for the Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling events recorded in two climatic proxies of three Greenland ice core records. We then provide a dynamical systems theory that bridges the gap between observing statistical precursor signals and the physical precursor signs empirically known in paleoclimate research.
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We provide simple quantitative models for the interglacial and glacial intensities over the last 800 000 years. Our results suggest that the memory of previous climate states and the time course of the insolation in both hemispheres are crucial for understanding interglacial and glacial intensities. In our model, the shift in interglacial intensities at the Mid-Brunhes Event (~430 ka) is ultimately attributed to the amplitude modulation of obliquity.
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Clim. Past, 20, 2719–2739, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2719-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2719-2024, 2024
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Takahito Mitsui, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, and Eric W. Wolff
Clim. Past, 18, 1983–1996, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1983-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1983-2022, 2022
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We provide simple quantitative models for the interglacial and glacial intensities over the last 800 000 years. Our results suggest that the memory of previous climate states and the time course of the insolation in both hemispheres are crucial for understanding interglacial and glacial intensities. In our model, the shift in interglacial intensities at the Mid-Brunhes Event (~430 ka) is ultimately attributed to the amplitude modulation of obliquity.
Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, Alexander Robinson, and Neil R. Edwards
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5905–5948, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, 2022
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Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Keno Riechers, Martin Wibe Rypdal, and Niklas Boers
Clim. Past, 18, 1275–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022, 2022
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In layer counted proxy records each measurement is accompanied by a timestamp typically measured by counting periodic layers. Knowledge of the uncertainty of this timestamp is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses. By assuming a Bayesian regression model to the layer increments we express the dating uncertainty by the posterior distribution, from which chronologies can be sampled efficiently. We apply our framework to dating abrupt warming transitions during the last glacial.
Keno Riechers, Takahito Mitsui, Niklas Boers, and Michael Ghil
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Building upon Milancovic's theory of orbital forcing, this paper reviews the interplay between intrinsic variability and external forcing in the emergence of glacial interglacial cycles. It provides the reader with historical background information and with basic theoretical concepts used in recent paleoclimate research. Moreover, it presents new results which confirm the reduced stability of glacial-cycle dynamics after the mid-Pleistocene transition.
Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Akira Oka, Takahito Mitsui, and Fuyuki Saito
Clim. Past, 17, 1919–1936, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1919-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1919-2021, 2021
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Keno Riechers and Niklas Boers
Clim. Past, 17, 1751–1775, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1751-2021, 2021
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Greenland ice core data show that the last glacial cycle was punctuated by a series of abrupt climate shifts comprising significant warming over Greenland, retreat of North Atlantic sea ice, and atmospheric reorganization. Statistical analysis of multi-proxy records reveals no systematic lead or lag between the transitions of proxies that represent different climatic subsystems, and hence no evidence for a potential trigger of these so-called Dansgaard–Oeschger events can be found.
Denis-Didier Rousseau, Pierre Antoine, Niklas Boers, France Lagroix, Michael Ghil, Johanna Lomax, Markus Fuchs, Maxime Debret, Christine Hatté, Olivier Moine, Caroline Gauthier, Diana Jordanova, and Neli Jordanova
Clim. Past, 16, 713–727, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-713-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-713-2020, 2020
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New investigations of European loess records from MIS 6 reveal the occurrence of paleosols and horizon showing slight pedogenesis similar to those from the last climatic cycle. These units are correlated with interstadials described in various marine, continental, and ice Northern Hemisphere records. Therefore, these MIS 6 interstadials can confidently be interpreted as DO-like events of the penultimate climate cycle.
Johanna Beckmann, Mahé Perrette, Sebastian Beyer, Reinhard Calov, Matteo Willeit, and Andrey Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 13, 2281–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019, 2019
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Submarine melting (SM) has been discussed as potentially triggering the recently observed retreat at outlet glaciers in Greenland. How much it may contribute in terms of future sea level rise (SLR) has not been quantified yet. When accounting for SM in our experiments, SLR contribution of 12 outlet glaciers increases by over 3-fold until the year 2100 under RCP8.5. Scaling up from 12 to all of Greenland's outlet glaciers increases future SLR contribution of Greenland by 50 %.
Reinhard Calov, Sebastian Beyer, Ralf Greve, Johanna Beckmann, Matteo Willeit, Thomas Kleiner, Martin Rückamp, Angelika Humbert, and Andrey Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 12, 3097–3121, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3097-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3097-2018, 2018
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We present RCP 4.5 and 8.5 projections for the Greenland glacial system with the new glacial system model IGLOO 1.0, which incorporates the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS 3.3, a model of basal hydrology and a parameterization of submarine melt of outlet glaciers. Surface temperature and mass balance anomalies from the MAR climate model serve as forcing delivering projections for the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level rise and submarine melt of Helheim and Store outlet glaciers.
Matteo Willeit and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 14, 697–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-697-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-697-2018, 2018
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The surface energy and mass balance of ice sheets strongly depends on surface albedo. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, we explore the role played by surface albedo for the simulation of glacial cycles. We show that the evolution of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets over the last glacial cycle is very sensitive to the parameterization of snow grain size and the effect of dust deposition on snow albedo.
Niklas Boers, Mickael D. Chekroun, Honghu Liu, Dmitri Kondrashov, Denis-Didier Rousseau, Anders Svensson, Matthias Bigler, and Michael Ghil
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1171–1190, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1171-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1171-2017, 2017
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We use a Bayesian approach for inferring inverse, stochastic–dynamic models from northern Greenland (NGRIP) oxygen and dust records of subdecadal resolution for the interval 59 to 22 ka b2k. Our model reproduces the statistical and dynamical characteristics of the records, including the Dansgaard–Oeschger variability, with no need for external forcing. The crucial ingredients are cubic drift terms, nonlinear coupling terms between the oxygen and dust time series, and non-Markovian contributions.
Denis-Didier Rousseau, Anders Svensson, Matthias Bigler, Adriana Sima, Jorgen Peder Steffensen, and Niklas Boers
Clim. Past, 13, 1181–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1181-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1181-2017, 2017
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We show that the analysis of δ18O and dust in the Greenland ice cores, and a critical study of their source variations, reconciles these records with those observed on the Eurasian continent. We demonstrate the link between European and Chinese loess sequences, dust records in Greenland, and variations in the North Atlantic sea ice extent. The sources of the emitted and transported dust material are variable and relate to different environments.
Niklas Boers, Bedartha Goswami, and Michael Ghil
Clim. Past, 13, 1169–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017, 2017
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We introduce a Bayesian framework to represent layer-counted proxy records as probability distributions on error-free time axes, accounting for both proxy and dating errors. Our method is applied to NGRIP δ18O data, revealing that the cumulative dating errors lead to substantial uncertainties for the older parts of the record. Applying our method to the widely used radiocarbon comparison curve derived from varved sediments of Lake Suigetsu provides the complete uncertainties of this curve.
Matteo Willeit and Andrey Ganopolski
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3817–3857, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3817-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3817-2016, 2016
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PALADYN is presented; it is a new comprehensive and computationally efficient land surface–vegetation–carbon cycle model designed to be used in Earth system models of intermediate complexity for long-term simulations and paleoclimate studies.
M. Willeit and A. Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 11, 1165–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1165-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1165-2015, 2015
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In this paper we explore the permafrost–ice-sheet interaction using the fully coupled climate–ice-sheet model CLIMBER-2 with the addition of a newly developed permafrost module. We find that permafrost has a moderate but significant effect on ice sheet dynamics during the last glacial cycle. In particular at the Last Glacial Maximum the inclusion of permafrost leads to a 15m sea level equivalent increase in Northern Hemisphere ice volume when permafrost is included.
D. Dalmonech, A. M. Foley, A. Anav, P. Friedlingstein, A. D. Friend, M. Kidston, M. Willeit, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-2083-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-2083-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
M. Willeit, A. Ganopolski, and G. Feulner
Biogeosciences, 11, 17–32, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-17-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-17-2014, 2014
M. Willeit, A. Ganopolski, and G. Feulner
Clim. Past, 9, 1749–1759, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1749-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1749-2013, 2013
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Short summary
The glacial–interglacial cycles of the Quaternary exhibit 41 kyr periodicity before the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) around 1.2–0.8 Myr ago and ~100 kyr periodicity after that. The mechanism generating these periodicities remains elusive. Through an analysis of an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2, we show that the dominant periodicities of glacial cycles can be explained from the viewpoint of synchronization theory.
The glacial–interglacial cycles of the Quaternary exhibit 41 kyr periodicity before the...
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