Articles | Volume 12, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-819-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-819-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
28 Jul 2021
Research article |
| 28 Jul 2021
| 28 Jul 2021
Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point
Johannes Lohmann
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Physics of Ice, Climate and Earth, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
Daniele Castellana
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Peter D. Ditlevsen
Physics of Ice, Climate and Earth, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
Henk A. Dijkstra
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
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Cited
30 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Rate-induced tipping cascades arising from interactions between the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation A. Klose et al.
- Optimality of early warning signals for critical transitions: Distribution moment approaches and transition to higher dimensions G. Donovan
- Evaluation of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Model Capability to Predict Rainfall over Ethiopia E. Mekonnen & E. Wasihun
- Managing agroforestry transitions in a rapidly changing climate K. Jovanelly et al.
- Inconclusive early warning signals for Dansgaard-Oeschger events across Greenland ice cores C. Hummel et al.
- Unveiling Geomagnetic Reversals: Insights From Tipping Points Theory T. Alberti et al.
- Cascade tipping, cascade hopping and indirect tipping in ecological systems A. Basak et al.
- What do we mean, ‘tipping cascade’? A. Klose et al.
- Effects of the chaotic saddles on critical transitions in a piecewise linear oscillator subjected to parameter drift H. Su et al.
- The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review P. Ritchie et al.
- Numerical Modeling and Parameter Sensitivity Analysis for Understanding Scale-Dependent Topographic Effects Governing Anisotropic Reflectance Correction of Satellite Imagery M. Bishop et al.
- Investigating ocean circulation dynamics through data assimilation: A mathematical study using the Stommel box model with rapid oscillatory forcings N. Smith et al.
- Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review N. Wunderling et al.
- Ten new insights in climate science 2021: a horizon scan M. Martin et al.
- Tipping points in river deltas R. van de Vijsel et al.
- Introduction to Focus Issue: Nonautonomous dynamical systems: Theory, methods, and applications P. Ashwin et al.
- Climate change and sustainability education framework: an opportunity for pre-service teaching J. Reed Johnson et al.
- Quantifying tipping behavior: Geometric early warnings and quasipotentials for a box model of AMOC R. Chapman et al.
- Seasonal Regime Shifts and Warming Trends in the Universal Thermal Climate Index over the Italian and Iberian Peninsulas (1940–2024) G. Cotlier & J. Jimenez
- Multi‐Stability of the Present‐Day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation H. Dijkstra et al.
- Approximating the bifurcation diagram of weakly and strongly coupled leading-following systems S. Sinet et al.
- Melancholia states of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation J. Lohmann & V. Lucarini
- Predicting Tipping Points in a Family of PWL Systems: Detecting Multistability via Linear Operators Properties J. Echenausía-monroy et al.
- Investigating monthly geopotential height changes and mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere westerlies H. Asakereh et al.
- Late Quaternary supernovae in Earth history G. Brakenridge
- Early warning signals for Asian summer monsoon tipping and implications for future monsoon changes X. Dong et al.
- Rate-induced tipping in ecosystems and climate: the role of unstable states, basin boundaries and transient dynamics U. Feudel
- Rate-induced tipping in natural and human systems P. Ritchie et al.
- Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation J. Lohmann et al.
- The Probability of an AMOC Collapse Onset in the Twenty-First Century H. Dijkstra & R. van Westen
30 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Rate-induced tipping cascades arising from interactions between the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation A. Klose et al.
- Optimality of early warning signals for critical transitions: Distribution moment approaches and transition to higher dimensions G. Donovan
- Evaluation of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Model Capability to Predict Rainfall over Ethiopia E. Mekonnen & E. Wasihun
- Managing agroforestry transitions in a rapidly changing climate K. Jovanelly et al.
- Inconclusive early warning signals for Dansgaard-Oeschger events across Greenland ice cores C. Hummel et al.
- Unveiling Geomagnetic Reversals: Insights From Tipping Points Theory T. Alberti et al.
- Cascade tipping, cascade hopping and indirect tipping in ecological systems A. Basak et al.
- What do we mean, ‘tipping cascade’? A. Klose et al.
- Effects of the chaotic saddles on critical transitions in a piecewise linear oscillator subjected to parameter drift H. Su et al.
- The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review P. Ritchie et al.
- Numerical Modeling and Parameter Sensitivity Analysis for Understanding Scale-Dependent Topographic Effects Governing Anisotropic Reflectance Correction of Satellite Imagery M. Bishop et al.
- Investigating ocean circulation dynamics through data assimilation: A mathematical study using the Stommel box model with rapid oscillatory forcings N. Smith et al.
- Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review N. Wunderling et al.
- Ten new insights in climate science 2021: a horizon scan M. Martin et al.
- Tipping points in river deltas R. van de Vijsel et al.
- Introduction to Focus Issue: Nonautonomous dynamical systems: Theory, methods, and applications P. Ashwin et al.
- Climate change and sustainability education framework: an opportunity for pre-service teaching J. Reed Johnson et al.
- Quantifying tipping behavior: Geometric early warnings and quasipotentials for a box model of AMOC R. Chapman et al.
- Seasonal Regime Shifts and Warming Trends in the Universal Thermal Climate Index over the Italian and Iberian Peninsulas (1940–2024) G. Cotlier & J. Jimenez
- Multi‐Stability of the Present‐Day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation H. Dijkstra et al.
- Approximating the bifurcation diagram of weakly and strongly coupled leading-following systems S. Sinet et al.
- Melancholia states of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation J. Lohmann & V. Lucarini
- Predicting Tipping Points in a Family of PWL Systems: Detecting Multistability via Linear Operators Properties J. Echenausía-monroy et al.
- Investigating monthly geopotential height changes and mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere westerlies H. Asakereh et al.
- Late Quaternary supernovae in Earth history G. Brakenridge
- Early warning signals for Asian summer monsoon tipping and implications for future monsoon changes X. Dong et al.
- Rate-induced tipping in ecosystems and climate: the role of unstable states, basin boundaries and transient dynamics U. Feudel
- Rate-induced tipping in natural and human systems P. Ritchie et al.
- Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation J. Lohmann et al.
- The Probability of an AMOC Collapse Onset in the Twenty-First Century H. Dijkstra & R. van Westen
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 24 May 2026
Short summary
Tipping of one climate subsystem could trigger a cascade of subsequent tipping points and even global-scale climate tipping. Sequential shifts of atmosphere, sea ice and ocean have been recorded in proxy archives of past climate change. Based on this we propose a conceptual model for abrupt climate changes of the last glacial. Here, rate-induced tipping enables tipping cascades in systems with relatively weak coupling. An early warning signal is proposed that may detect such a tipping.
Tipping of one climate subsystem could trigger a cascade of subsequent tipping points and even...
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