Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 995–1012, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-995-2020
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 995–1012, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-995-2020

Research article 13 Nov 2020

Research article | 13 Nov 2020

Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence

Lukas Brunner et al.

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AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (22 Sep 2020) by Ben Kravitz
AR by Lukas Brunner on behalf of the Authors (02 Oct 2020)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (05 Oct 2020) by Ben Kravitz
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Short summary
In this study, we weight climate models by their performance with respect to simulating aspects of historical climate and their degree of interdependence. Our method is found to increase projection skill and to correct for structurally similar models. The weighted end-of-century mean warming (2081–2100 relative to 1995–2014) is 3.7 °C with a likely (66 %) range of 3.1 to 4.6 °C for the strong climate change scenario SSP5-8.5; this is a reduction of 0.4 °C compared with the unweighted mean.
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