Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence

Brunner, Lukas; Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Lehner, Flavio; Merrifield, Anna L.; Lorenz, Ruth; Knutti, Reto

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-995-2020

Articles | Volume 11, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-995-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-995-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 11, issue 4

Research article

| Highlight paper

|

13 Nov 2020

Research article | Highlight paper |

| 13 Nov 2020

Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence

Lukas Brunner, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, Anna L. Merrifield, Ruth Lorenz, and Reto Knutti

Download

Final revised paper (published on 13 Nov 2020)
Supplement to the final revised paper
Preprint (discussion started on 28 Apr 2020)
Supplement to the preprint

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

- Printer-friendly version

- Supplement

RC1: 'Review of “Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence”', Anonymous Referee #1, 03 Jun 2020
- AC1: 'Answers to Anonymous Referee #1', Lukas Brunner, 20 Sep 2020
RC2: 'Review of “Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence” for Earth System Dynamics', Anonymous Referee #2, 23 Jul 2020
- AC2: 'Answers to Anonymous Referee #2', Lukas Brunner, 20 Sep 2020

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (22 Sep 2020) by Ben Kravitz

AR by Lukas Brunner on behalf of the Authors (02 Oct 2020) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (05 Oct 2020) by Ben Kravitz

Download

Article (2897 KB)
Full-text XML

Short summary

In this study, we weight climate models by their performance with respect to simulating aspects of historical climate and their degree of interdependence. Our method is found to increase projection skill and to correct for structurally similar models. The weighted end-of-century mean warming (2081–2100 relative to 1995–2014) is 3.7 °C with a likely (66 %) range of 3.1 to 4.6 °C for the strong climate change scenario SSP5-8.5; this is a reduction of 0.4 °C compared with the unweighted mean.