Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 995–1012, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-995-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 995–1012, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-995-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article 13 Nov 2020
Research article | 13 Nov 2020
Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence
Lukas Brunner et al.
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Cited
21 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6 C. Tebaldi et al. 10.5194/esd-12-253-2021
- Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections Z. Nicholls et al. 10.1029/2020EF001900
- The potential for structural errors in emergent constraints B. Sanderson et al. 10.5194/esd-12-899-2021
- Differential Credibility of Climate Modes in CMIP6 J. Coburn & S. Pryor 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0359.1
- Model spread and progress in climate modelling J. Jebeile & A. Barberousse 10.1007/s13194-021-00387-0
- Probabilistic projections of future warming and climate sensitivity trajectories P. Goodwin 10.1093/oxfclm/kgab007
- Assessment of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity of the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Through Simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum J. Zhu et al. 10.1029/2020GL091220
- FaIRv2.0.0: a generalized impulse response model for climate uncertainty and future scenario exploration N. Leach et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-3007-2021
- Future Projections and Uncertainty Assessment of Precipitation Extremes in the Korean Peninsula from the CMIP6 Ensemble with a Statistical Framework Y. Shin et al. 10.3390/atmos12010097
- Extreme climate changes over three major river basins in China as seen in CMIP5 and CMIP6 X. Zhu et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-05767-z
- Substantial changes in the probability of future annual temperature extremes R. Slater et al. 10.1002/asl.1061
- Future Projections and Uncertainty Assessment of Precipitation Extremes in Iran from the CMIP6 Ensemble J. Hong et al. 10.3390/atmos12081052
- Observation-based selection of climate models projects Arctic ice-free summers around 2035 D. Docquier & T. Koenigk 10.1038/s43247-021-00214-7
- Projections of changes in ecosystem productivity under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming C. Tian et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103588
- Revealing the Impact of Global Heating on North Atlantic Circulation Using Transparent Machine Learning M. Sonnewald & R. Lguensat 10.1029/2021MS002496
- Machine learning to optimize climate projection over China with multi-model ensemble simulations T. Li et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac1d0c
- Projecting Global Mean Sea‐Level Change Using CMIP6 Models T. Hermans et al. 10.1029/2020GL092064
- Natural variability is a large source of uncertainty in future projections of hypoxia in the Baltic Sea H. Markus Meier et al. 10.1038/s43247-021-00115-9
- Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6 F. Lehner et al. 10.5194/esd-11-491-2020
- Pacific variability reconciles observed and modelled global mean temperature increase since 1950 M. Stolpe et al. 10.1007/s00382-020-05493-y
- Toward Consistent Observational Constraints in Climate Predictions and Projections G. Hegerl et al. 10.3389/fclim.2021.678109
18 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6 C. Tebaldi et al. 10.5194/esd-12-253-2021
- Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections Z. Nicholls et al. 10.1029/2020EF001900
- The potential for structural errors in emergent constraints B. Sanderson et al. 10.5194/esd-12-899-2021
- Differential Credibility of Climate Modes in CMIP6 J. Coburn & S. Pryor 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0359.1
- Model spread and progress in climate modelling J. Jebeile & A. Barberousse 10.1007/s13194-021-00387-0
- Probabilistic projections of future warming and climate sensitivity trajectories P. Goodwin 10.1093/oxfclm/kgab007
- Assessment of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity of the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Through Simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum J. Zhu et al. 10.1029/2020GL091220
- FaIRv2.0.0: a generalized impulse response model for climate uncertainty and future scenario exploration N. Leach et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-3007-2021
- Future Projections and Uncertainty Assessment of Precipitation Extremes in the Korean Peninsula from the CMIP6 Ensemble with a Statistical Framework Y. Shin et al. 10.3390/atmos12010097
- Extreme climate changes over three major river basins in China as seen in CMIP5 and CMIP6 X. Zhu et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-05767-z
- Substantial changes in the probability of future annual temperature extremes R. Slater et al. 10.1002/asl.1061
- Future Projections and Uncertainty Assessment of Precipitation Extremes in Iran from the CMIP6 Ensemble J. Hong et al. 10.3390/atmos12081052
- Observation-based selection of climate models projects Arctic ice-free summers around 2035 D. Docquier & T. Koenigk 10.1038/s43247-021-00214-7
- Projections of changes in ecosystem productivity under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming C. Tian et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103588
- Revealing the Impact of Global Heating on North Atlantic Circulation Using Transparent Machine Learning M. Sonnewald & R. Lguensat 10.1029/2021MS002496
- Machine learning to optimize climate projection over China with multi-model ensemble simulations T. Li et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac1d0c
- Projecting Global Mean Sea‐Level Change Using CMIP6 Models T. Hermans et al. 10.1029/2020GL092064
- Natural variability is a large source of uncertainty in future projections of hypoxia in the Baltic Sea H. Markus Meier et al. 10.1038/s43247-021-00115-9
3 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6 F. Lehner et al. 10.5194/esd-11-491-2020
- Pacific variability reconciles observed and modelled global mean temperature increase since 1950 M. Stolpe et al. 10.1007/s00382-020-05493-y
- Toward Consistent Observational Constraints in Climate Predictions and Projections G. Hegerl et al. 10.3389/fclim.2021.678109
Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 16 Oct 2021
Short summary
In this study, we weight climate models by their performance with respect to simulating aspects of historical climate and their degree of interdependence. Our method is found to increase projection skill and to correct for structurally similar models. The weighted end-of-century mean warming (2081–2100 relative to 1995–2014) is 3.7 °C with a likely (66 %) range of 3.1 to 4.6 °C for the strong climate change scenario SSP5-8.5; this is a reduction of 0.4 °C compared with the unweighted mean.
In this study, we weight climate models by their performance with respect to simulating aspects...
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