Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-995-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-995-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Angeline G. Pendergrass
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
now at: Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA
Flavio Lehner
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
now at: Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA
Anna L. Merrifield
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Ruth Lorenz
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Reto Knutti
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
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Short summary
In this study, we weight climate models by their performance with respect to simulating aspects of historical climate and their degree of interdependence. Our method is found to increase projection skill and to correct for structurally similar models. The weighted end-of-century mean warming (2081–2100 relative to 1995–2014) is 3.7 °C with a likely (66 %) range of 3.1 to 4.6 °C for the strong climate change scenario SSP5-8.5; this is a reduction of 0.4 °C compared with the unweighted mean.
In this study, we weight climate models by their performance with respect to simulating aspects...
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