Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 995–1012, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-995-2020
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 995–1012, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-995-2020

Research article 13 Nov 2020

Research article | 13 Nov 2020

Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence

Lukas Brunner et al.

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Latest update: 24 Jul 2021
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Short summary
In this study, we weight climate models by their performance with respect to simulating aspects of historical climate and their degree of interdependence. Our method is found to increase projection skill and to correct for structurally similar models. The weighted end-of-century mean warming (2081–2100 relative to 1995–2014) is 3.7 °C with a likely (66 %) range of 3.1 to 4.6 °C for the strong climate change scenario SSP5-8.5; this is a reduction of 0.4 °C compared with the unweighted mean.
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