Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-995-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-995-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Angeline G. Pendergrass
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
now at: Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA
Flavio Lehner
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
now at: Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA
Anna L. Merrifield
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Ruth Lorenz
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Reto Knutti
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Viewed
Total article views: 23,160 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 28 Apr 2020)
| HTML | XML | Total | Supplement | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18,758 | 4,172 | 230 | 23,160 | 846 | 303 | 313 |
- HTML: 18,758
- PDF: 4,172
- XML: 230
- Total: 23,160
- Supplement: 846
- BibTeX: 303
- EndNote: 313
Total article views: 19,508 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 13 Nov 2020)
| HTML | XML | Total | Supplement | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16,644 | 2,682 | 182 | 19,508 | 684 | 251 | 251 |
- HTML: 16,644
- PDF: 2,682
- XML: 182
- Total: 19,508
- Supplement: 684
- BibTeX: 251
- EndNote: 251
Total article views: 3,652 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 28 Apr 2020)
| HTML | XML | Total | Supplement | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,114 | 1,490 | 48 | 3,652 | 162 | 52 | 62 |
- HTML: 2,114
- PDF: 1,490
- XML: 48
- Total: 3,652
- Supplement: 162
- BibTeX: 52
- EndNote: 62
Viewed (geographical distribution)
Total article views: 23,160 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 21,290 with geography defined
and 1,870 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 19,508 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 17,687 with geography defined
and 1,821 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 3,652 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 3,603 with geography defined
and 49 with unknown origin.
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
Cited
216 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Reducing uncertainty in local temperature projections S. Qasmi & A. Ribes
- Future changes of socioeconomic exposure to potential landslide hazards over mainland China D. Li et al.
- Expert judgment in climate science: How it is used and how it can be justified M. Majszak & J. Jebeile
- An evolving Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7) and Fast Track in support of future climate assessment J. Dunne et al.
- An Approach for Selecting Observationally-Constrained Global Climate Model Ensembles for Regional Climate Impacts and Adaptation Studies in Canada D. Jeong & A. Cannon
- Projecting and valuing climate change impacts on anxiety and depression in the contiguous USA: a damage function approach A. Belova et al.
- Towards a balancing performance, uncertainty coverage, and spatial consistency in climate model sub-selection I. Lagos-Castro et al.
- Common Error Patterns in the Regional Atmospheric Circulation Simulated by the CMIP Multi‐Model Ensemble S. Brands
- Sahel Rainfall Projections Constrained by Past Sensitivity to Global Warming J. Schewe & A. Levermann
- Indian Ocean dynamic sea level, its variability and projections in CMIP6 models C. Sajidh & A. Chatterjee
- Selecting CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) for Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) dynamical downscaling over Southeast Asia using a standardised benchmarking framework P. Nguyen et al.
- Emergent Constraints on CMIP6 Climate Warming Projections: Contrasting Cloud- and Surface Temperature–Based Constraints Y. Liang et al.
- Accounting for Pacific climate variability increases projected global warming Y. Liang et al.
- Emergent Constraints on the Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation and Regional Hydroclimate: Do They Still Work in CMIP6 and How Much Can They Actually Constrain the Future? I. Simpson et al.
- Projected changes in mean annual cycle of temperature and precipitation over the Czech Republic: Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 E. Holtanová et al.
- Validation and Selection of a Representative Subset from the Ensemble of EURO-CORDEX EUR11 Regional Climate Model Outputs for the Czech Republic J. Meitner et al.
- Differential Credibility of Climate Modes in CMIP6 J. Coburn & S. Pryor
- Climate Model Projections for Canada: A Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 S. Sobie et al.
- Temperature Sensitivity of Freshwater Denitrification and N2O Emission—A Meta‐Analysis M. Velthuis & A. Veraart
- Spatial Modeling and Future Projection of Extreme Precipitation Extents P. Zhong et al.
- Fighting climate change: soil bacteria communities and topography play a role in plant colonization of desert areas X. Sun et al.
- Australian climate warming: observed change from 1850 and global temperature targets M. Grose et al.
- Evaluation for CMIP6 Climate Models Using a Weighting Technique: A Case Study in the Kherlen River Basin, Mongolia M. Zorigt et al.
- Projections of fire emissions and the consequent impacts on air quality under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming C. Tian et al.
- Selecting CMIP6 models to assess the impact of climate change on energy need for heating and cooling in Europe H. Filahi et al.
- Historical and Future Windstorms in the Northeastern United States S. Pryor et al.
- Towards annual updating of forced warming to date and constrained climate projections A. Ribes et al.
- Bayesian estimates for changes of the Russian river runoff in the 21st century as based on the CMIP6 model ensemble simulations А. Medvedev et al.
- Selecting and weighting dynamical models using data-driven approaches P. Le Bras et al.
- Evaluation of CMIP6 models toward dynamical downscaling over 14 CORDEX domains M. Zhang et al.
- Drivers of Recent North Pacific Decadal Variability: The Role of Aerosol Forcing A. Dittus et al.
- Correlation Between Sea‐Level Rise and Aspects of Future Tropical Cyclone Activity in CMIP6 Models J. Lockwood et al.
- Concerning prognostic estimations on hazardous weather events: a road to nowhere or to home? Y. Kolokolov & A. Monovskaya
- Pantropical Indo-Atlantic temperature gradient modulates multi-decadal AMOC variability in models and observations B. Ferster et al.
- Dominant inflation of the Arctic Ocean’s Beaufort Gyre in a warming climate Q. Wang et al.
- Model spread and progress in climate modelling J. Jebeile & A. Barberousse
- Reducing Snow Amount Uncertainty in CMIP6 PanCanadian Climate Projections D. Matte et al.
- Deep learning-driven statistical bias correction for climate risk assessment of projected temperature extremes in the Nordic region P. Loganathan et al.
- How well have CMIP3, CMIP5 and CMIP6 future climate projections portrayed the recently observed warming D. Carvalho et al.
- Climate response to off-equatorial stratospheric sulfur injections in three Earth system models – Part 1: Experimental protocols and surface changes D. Visioni et al.
- Assessing sensitivities of climate model weighting to multiple methods, variables, and domains in the south-central United States A. Wootten et al.
- Ensemble Numerical Experiments with Earth System Models A. Eliseev
- Learning from weather and climate science to prepare for a future pandemic S. Schemm et al.
- Machine learning to optimize climate projection over China with multi-model ensemble simulations T. Li et al.
- Identifying climate models based on their daily output using machine learning L. Brunner & S. Sippel
- Evaluating regional climate change during 2021–2080 for Iran and neighboring countries (a comparative analysis of projections and reanalysis data) H. Dehban et al.
- Temperature and Precipitation Change over South China in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models: Historical Simulation and Future Projection D. Peng et al.
- Optimizing category-based statistical metrics for selecting global climate models in rainfall projections for Peninsular Malaysia Z. Sa’adi et al.
- Assessing observational constraints on future European climate in an out-of-sample framework C. O’Reilly et al.
- Temperature variability projections remain uncertain after constraining them to best performing Large Ensembles of individual Climate Models L. Suarez-Gutierrez & N. Maher
- Bayesian Estimates of Changes in Russian River Runoff in the 21st Century Based on the CMIP6 Ensemble Model Simulations A. Medvedev et al.
- Optimizing climate model selection in regional studies using an adaptive weather type based framework: a case study for extreme heat in Belgium F. Serras et al.
- Dynamical downscaling CMIP6 models over New Zealand: added value of climatology and extremes P. Gibson et al.
- Uncertainties in projections of climate extremes indices in South America via Bayesian inference C. Gouveia et al.
- A global climate model ensemble for downscaled monthly climate normals over North America C. Mahony et al.
- Global warming increases risk from compound dry‐hot events to human and agricultural systems Y. Zhang et al.
- Representing natural climate variability in an event attribution context: Indo-Pakistani heatwave of 2022 S. Nath et al.
- Projecting Global Mean Sea‐Level Change Using CMIP6 Models T. Hermans et al.
- Validation of key Arctic energy and water budget components in CMIP6 S. Winkelbauer et al.
- Large potential of performance-based model weighting to improve decadal climate forecast skill V. Verjans et al.
- A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs) M. Meinshausen et al.
- Projected changes and uncertainty in cold surges over northern China using the CMIP6 weighted multi-model ensemble S. Shuaifeng & Y. Xiaodong
- Climate Change Signal in Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Today and Near Future C. Lee et al.
- Probabilistic projections of future warming and climate sensitivity trajectories P. Goodwin
- FaIRv2.0.0: a generalized impulse response model for climate uncertainty and future scenario exploration N. Leach et al.
- Combination of Decadal Predictions and Climate Projections in Time: Challenges and Potential Solutions D. Befort et al.
- On the role of moist and dry processes in atmospheric blocking biases in the Euro-Atlantic region in CMIP6 E. Dolores-Tesillos et al.
- Future Projections and Uncertainty Assessment of Precipitation Extremes in the Korean Peninsula from the CMIP6 Ensemble with a Statistical Framework Y. Shin et al.
- Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow in the Ayazma River Basin in the Marmara Region of Turkey K. Seddiqe et al.
- Assessing CMIP6 uncertainties at global warming levels G. Evin et al.
- ClimLoco1.0: CLimate variable confidence Interval of Multivariate Linear Observational COnstraint V. Portmann et al.
- Future precipitation extremes over base Himalayan Uttarakhand region: analysis using the statistically downscaled, bias-corrected high-resolution NEX-GDDP datasets B. Vinodhkumar et al.
- Constraining CMIP6 Projections of an Ice‐Free Arctic Using a Weighting Scheme J. Zhao et al.
- Extreme weather and cascading photovoltaic power vulnerabilities under climate change P. Adigun et al.
- A simple framework for likely climate projections applied to tropical width D. Baldassare & T. Reichler
- Observational constraints reduce model spread but not uncertainty in global wetland methane emission estimates K. Chang et al.
- Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Land Suitability: An Interpretable Machine Learning-Based Eurasia Case Study V. Shevchenko et al.
- Using Neural Networks to Predict Hurricane Storm Surge and to Assess the Sensitivity of Surge to Storm Characteristics J. Lockwood et al.
- Projecting solar peak hours in southern Spain using temperature-based machine learning models until 2100 J. Bellido-Jiménez et al.
- Changes of extreme precipitation in the Philippines, projected from the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble J. Hong et al.
- Use of meta-heuristic approach in the estimation of aquifer's response to climate change under shared socioeconomic pathways N. Zeydalinejad & R. Dehghani
- A chance to “cure” local climate systems and reconcile humanity with Nature Y. Kolokolov & A. Monovskaya
- Substantial changes in the probability of future annual temperature extremes R. Slater et al.
- Microplastics in global rivers: Sustainable practices Y. Guo et al.
- Simulations With the Marine Biogeochemistry Library (MARBL) M. Long et al.
- Historical footprints and future projections of global dust burden from bias-corrected CMIP6 models J. Liu et al.
- Human Versus Natural Influences on Climate and Biodiversity: The Carbon Dioxide Connection W. Davis
- Comparison of Climate Model Large Ensembles With Observations in the Arctic Using Simple Neural Networks Z. Labe & E. Barnes
- Linking hydroclimate indices to projected warming temperature and increased precipitation under CMIP6 for a sub-arctic basin C. Nakigudde et al.
- Assessment and Constraint of Mesozooplankton in CMIP6 Earth System Models C. Petrik et al.
- Effects of multi-observations uncertainty and models similarity on climate change projections R. Pathak et al.
- Estimating Regionalized Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change Over Europe by Performance-Based Weighting of CORDEX Projections F. Sperna Weiland et al.
- Future extreme precipitation may shift to colder seasons in northern mid- and high latitudes D. Zhu et al.
- Change in Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau Projected by Weighted CMIP6 Models Y. Zhao et al.
- RECCAP2 Future Component: Consistency and Potential for Regional Assessment to Constrain Global Projections C. Jones et al.
- Climate change may reduce suitable habitat for freshwater fish in a tropical watershed L. Peluso et al.
- Rarest rainfall events will see the greatest relative increase in magnitude under future climate change G. Gründemann et al.
- Assessing high-resolution precipitation extremes in Central Asia: evaluation and future projections S. Gummadi et al.
- Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections Z. Nicholls et al.
- Sign of Observed California Temperature Trends Depends on Data Set Homogenization: Implications for Weighting and Downscaling A. Charn et al.
- Securing the future of Colombian cacao: projected suitability changes and adaptation strategies under climate change T. Fremout et al.
- MESMER-M: an Earth system model emulator for spatially resolved monthly temperature S. Nath et al.
- Future Changes in Various Cold Surges over China in CMIP6 Projections L. Ma et al.
- Assessment of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity of the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Through Simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum J. Zhu et al.
- Observational constraints project a ~50% AMOC weakening by the end of this century V. Portmann et al.
- Predicting daily maximum temperature over Andhra Pradesh using machine learning techniques S. Velivelli et al.
- Evaluating the phase evolution of CMIP GCMs for agricultural climate-change impact assessments in China L. Yao et al.
- A circulation-based performance atlas of the CMIP5 and 6 models for regional climate studies in the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes S. Brands
- Dynamic simulation of land use change and habitat quality assessment under climate change scenarios in Nanchang, China Z. Chen et al.
- Revealing the Impact of Global Heating on North Atlantic Circulation Using Transparent Machine Learning M. Sonnewald & R. Lguensat
- From emission scenarios to spatially resolved projections with a chain of computationally efficient emulators: coupling of MAGICC (v7.5.1) and MESMER (v0.8.3) L. Beusch et al.
- A Novel Statistical Framework for Assessing Future Drought Using Multiple Global Climate Model: The Weighted Multimodal Adaptive Standardized Precipitation Index R. Fatima & Z. Ali
- Future climate change implications in Bhutan from a downscaled and bias‐adjusted CMIP6 multimodel ensemble F. Lehner et al.
- Projected changes in daily and multi-day extreme rainfall across the U.S. using downscaled CMIP6 models* G. Perez et al.
- The effectiveness of machine learning‐based multi‐model ensemble predictions of CMIP6 in Western Ghats of India S. Shetty et al.
- Impact of multi-scenario land-use changes on habitat quality evolution in the Yangtze River economic belt B. Dong et al.
- Evaluation of global teleconnections in CMIP6 climate projections using complex networks C. Dalelane et al.
- Climate-aware decision-making: lessons for electric grid infrastructure planning and operations A. Brockway et al.
- Assessing the impact of global warming on windstorms in the northeastern United States using the pseudo-global-warming method J. Sethunadh et al.
- Change of global land extreme temperature in the future X. Zhang et al.
- Constraining uncertainty in projected precipitation over land with causal discovery K. Debeire et al.
- Intensified changes in extreme climate events over the Philippines region under future climate scenarios S. Ignacio-Reardon et al.
- The Mediterranean climate change hotspot in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections J. Cos et al.
- Comparing CMIP6 Climate Model Simulations of Annual Global Mean Temperatures to a New Combined Data Product P. Craigmile & P. Guttorp
- Development of a new hybrid ensemble method for accurate characterization of future drought using multiple global climate models M. Yousaf et al.
- Emergence of climate change signal in CMIP6 extreme indices N. Schuhen et al.
- A novel procedure for monitoring temperature characteristics using multiple climate projections R. Khalil & Z. Ali
- Three decades of simulating global temperature patterns with coupled global climate models L. Brunner et al.
- Indian summer monsoon simulations in successive generations of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model R. Kumar et al.
- Evaluating observed and future spatiotemporal changes in precipitation and temperature across China based on CMIP6‐GCMs K. Lu et al.
- CMIP6 Earth System Models Project Greater Acceleration of Climate Zone Change Due To Stronger Warming Rates A. Bayar et al.
- Application-specific optimal model weighting of global climate models: A red tide example A. Elshall et al.
- Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6 C. Tebaldi et al.
- Probabilistic projections of El Niño Southern Oscillation properties accounting for model dependence and skill R. Olson et al.
- Improvement in the skill of CMIP6 decadal hindcasts for extreme rainfall events over the Indian summer monsoon region G. Konda et al.
- The role of crop simulation modeling in assessing potential climate change impacts D. Timlin et al.
- Assessing Climate Change Effects on Winter Wheat Production in the 3H Plain: Insights from Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Projections Y. Xu et al.
- Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe T. Palmer et al.
- Plant Phenomics: The Force Behind Tomorrow’s Crop Phenotyping Tools P. Kumari et al.
- Assessment of winter three-dimensional extreme cold events over the Northern Hemisphere during 1959–2020 based on CMIP6 models X. Wang et al.
- Dispersal abilities favor commensalism in animal-plant interactions under climate change P. Lemes et al.
- An updated assessment of past and future warming over France based on a regional observational constraint A. Ribes et al.
- Evolution of land surface feedbacks on extreme heat: Adapting existing coupling metrics to a changing climate P. Dirmeyer et al.
- Screening CMIP6 models for Chile based on past performance and code genealogy F. Gateño et al.
- The potential for structural errors in emergent constraints B. Sanderson et al.
- Projecting Wintertime Newly Formed Arctic Sea Ice through Weighting CMIP6 Model Performance and Independence J. Zhao et al.
- Surface air temperature variability over India in CMIP6 models during spring and early summer: after effect of El Niño S. Velivelli et al.
- Dynamic Response of Surface Water Temperature in Urban Lakes under Different Climate Scenarios—A Case Study in Dianchi Lake, China H. Duan et al.
- Scenarios of change in the realized climatic niche of mountain carnivores and ungulates C. Dragonetti et al.
- Observation-based selection of climate models projects Arctic ice-free summers around 2035 D. Docquier & T. Koenigk
- Opposite effects of climate and land‐use/cover change on Mediterranean herpetofauna: Insights from the southern Apennines D. Biancolini et al.
- network-based constraint to evaluate climate sensitivity L. Ricard et al.
- Projected Changes and Uncertainty of Cold Surges Over Northern China Using the Cmip6 Weighted Multi-Model Ensemble S. Song & X. Yan
- Future temperature and salinity in Puget Sound, Washington State, under CMIP6 climate change scenarios S. Walker et al.
- Characterising the range and outliers in CMIP6 multi-model climate projections of extremes P. Pall & A. King
- A CMIP6-based multi-model downscaling ensemble to underpin climate change services in Australia M. Grose et al.
- A non-stationary climate-informed weather generator for assessing future flood risks V. Nguyen et al.
- Why we need lower-performance climate models R. O’Loughlin
- The Impact of Climate Change and Carbon Policy on Company Earnings M. Goldklang et al.
- Influence of groundwater recharge projections on climate-driven subsurface warming: insights from numerical modeling M. Tsypin et al.
- Vulnerability to climate change of cultivated and wild cacao in Ecuador V. Ceccarelli et al.
- Cloud properties and their projected changes in CMIP models with low to high climate sensitivity L. Bock & A. Lauer
- Present-day North Atlantic salinity constrains future warming of the Northern Hemisphere I. Park et al.
- Projection of temperature and precipitation under climate change in Tabriz, Iran B. Ghazi & E. Jeihouni
- Bayesian weighting of climate models based on climate sensitivity E. Massoud et al.
- Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights C. Guivarch et al.
- Leveraging emergent constraints to reduce uncertainty in future compound drought and heatwave events across mainland China M. Wu et al.
- Increasing Fire Weather Potential Over Northeast China Linked to Declining Bering Sea Ice G. Liu et al.
- Biogeochemical and Physical Assessment of CMIP5 and CMIP6 Ocean Components for the Southwest Pacific Ocean G. Rickard et al.
- Filtering CMIP6 models in the Euro-Mediterranean based on a circulation patterns approach M. Olmo et al.
- Large spread in the representation of compound long-duration dry and hot spells over Europe in CMIP5 C. Manning et al.
- How fast is the frequency of precipitation extremes doubling in global land regions? G. Chagnaud et al.
- The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7 B. Sanderson et al.
- Integrated Assessment of Climate-Driven Streamflow Changes in a Transboundary Lake Basin Using CMIP6-SWAT+-BMA: A Sustainability Perspective F. Xiao et al.
- Delivering probabilistic climate hazards assessments D. Huard et al.
- Scenario choice impacts carbon allocation projection at global warming levels L. de Mora et al.
- Model weighting for ISMIP6-Greenland based on observations and similarity among models X. Luo & S. Nowicki
- An Assessment of the Oceanic Physical and Biogeochemical Components of CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models for the Ross Sea Region G. Rickard et al.
- Model-Based Assessment of Phenological and Climate Suitability Dynamics for Winter Wheat in the 3H Plain Under Future Climate Scenarios Y. Xu et al.
- Enhancing global CMIP6 model temperature predictions using deep learning neural networks S. Velivelli et al.
- Future sea-level projections with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-sheet model J. Park et al.
- Performance assessment of 22 CMIP6 climate models for projecting wind climate and wind power over the Mediterranean Sea E. Çalışır et al.
- Comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 models in simulating mean and extreme precipitation over East Africa B. Ayugi et al.
- Evaluation of Dynamically Downscaled CMIP6‐CCAM Models Over Australia S. Chapman et al.
- Eddy activity in the Arctic Ocean projected to surge in a warming world X. Li et al.
- Confronting Earth System Model trends with observations I. Simpson et al.
- Climate model Selection by Independence, Performance, and Spread (ClimSIPS v1.0.1) for regional applications A. Merrifield et al.
- Opinion: Why all emergent constraints are wrong but some are useful – a machine learning perspective P. Nowack & D. Watson-Parris
- Observed and CMIP6 projected rainfall variability and change in drylands of southern Ethiopia A. Chinasho et al.
- Downscaling and bias-correction contribute considerable uncertainty to local climate projections in CMIP6 D. Lafferty & R. Sriver
- Description of historical and future projection simulations by the global coupled E3SMv1.0 model as used in CMIP6 X. Zheng et al.
- Future Extreme Precipitation in Summer Will Become More Widespread in China Depending on Level of Warming R. Yu et al.
- Evolution of the Internal Climate Modes under Future Warming J. Coburn & S. Pryor
- A Comparison of Regional Climate Projections With a Range of Climate Sensitivities C. Barnes et al.
- Running to warmer-drier springs in the Greater Mekong Subregion as climate warms Z. Dong et al.
- Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia R. Fewster et al.
- Contribution of large-scale atmospheric circulation and anthropogenic aerosols to recent summer warming over western Europe H. Douville et al.
- Future Projections and Uncertainty Assessment of Precipitation Extremes in Iran from the CMIP6 Ensemble J. Hong et al.
- Projections of changes in ecosystem productivity under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming C. Tian et al.
- Evaluation of atmospheric circulations for dynamic downscaling in CMIP6 models over East Asia S. Song et al.
- Natural variability is a large source of uncertainty in future projections of hypoxia in the Baltic Sea H. Markus Meier et al.
- Impacts of marine heatwaves on tropical western and central Pacific Island nations and their communities N. Holbrook et al.
- Opening Pandora's box: reducing global circulation model uncertainty in Australian simulations of the carbon cycle L. Teckentrup et al.
- Should we think of observationally constrained multidecade climate projections as predictions? T. Li et al.
- Projected shrinking of tropical vegetation biomass potential with future hydroclimatic shifts F. Meunier et al.
- A novel statistical framework for the reduction of uncertainties in multimodel ensemble of global climate models of precipitation simulations R. Khalil & Z. Ali
- New Potential to Reduce Uncertainty in Regional Climate Projections by Combining Physical and Socio‐Economic Constraints F. Lehner et al.
- The ExtremeX global climate model experiment: investigating thermodynamic and dynamic processes contributing to weather and climate extremes K. Wehrli et al.
- Temporal fragmentation of the energy demand in Europe: Impact of climate change on the maneuverability of energy system H. Filahi et al.
- Sustainable food systems and nutrition in the 21st century: a report from the 22nd annual Harvard Nutrition Obesity Symposium J. Fanzo et al.
- Prediction of trade-offs and synergies and analysis of driving forces of ecosystem services in Jiangxi, China Y. Chen et al.
- Extreme climate changes over three major river basins in China as seen in CMIP5 and CMIP6 X. Zhu et al.
- Observational constraints suggest a smaller effective radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions C. Park et al.
- Technical note: What does the Standardized Streamflow Index actually reflect? Insights and implications for hydrological drought analysis F. Lema et al.
- Tropical and subtropical Asia's valued tree species under threat H. Gaisberger et al.
- Pitfalls in diagnosing temperature extremes L. Brunner & A. Voigt
216 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Reducing uncertainty in local temperature projections S. Qasmi & A. Ribes
- Future changes of socioeconomic exposure to potential landslide hazards over mainland China D. Li et al.
- Expert judgment in climate science: How it is used and how it can be justified M. Majszak & J. Jebeile
- An evolving Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7) and Fast Track in support of future climate assessment J. Dunne et al.
- An Approach for Selecting Observationally-Constrained Global Climate Model Ensembles for Regional Climate Impacts and Adaptation Studies in Canada D. Jeong & A. Cannon
- Projecting and valuing climate change impacts on anxiety and depression in the contiguous USA: a damage function approach A. Belova et al.
- Towards a balancing performance, uncertainty coverage, and spatial consistency in climate model sub-selection I. Lagos-Castro et al.
- Common Error Patterns in the Regional Atmospheric Circulation Simulated by the CMIP Multi‐Model Ensemble S. Brands
- Sahel Rainfall Projections Constrained by Past Sensitivity to Global Warming J. Schewe & A. Levermann
- Indian Ocean dynamic sea level, its variability and projections in CMIP6 models C. Sajidh & A. Chatterjee
- Selecting CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) for Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) dynamical downscaling over Southeast Asia using a standardised benchmarking framework P. Nguyen et al.
- Emergent Constraints on CMIP6 Climate Warming Projections: Contrasting Cloud- and Surface Temperature–Based Constraints Y. Liang et al.
- Accounting for Pacific climate variability increases projected global warming Y. Liang et al.
- Emergent Constraints on the Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation and Regional Hydroclimate: Do They Still Work in CMIP6 and How Much Can They Actually Constrain the Future? I. Simpson et al.
- Projected changes in mean annual cycle of temperature and precipitation over the Czech Republic: Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 E. Holtanová et al.
- Validation and Selection of a Representative Subset from the Ensemble of EURO-CORDEX EUR11 Regional Climate Model Outputs for the Czech Republic J. Meitner et al.
- Differential Credibility of Climate Modes in CMIP6 J. Coburn & S. Pryor
- Climate Model Projections for Canada: A Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 S. Sobie et al.
- Temperature Sensitivity of Freshwater Denitrification and N2O Emission—A Meta‐Analysis M. Velthuis & A. Veraart
- Spatial Modeling and Future Projection of Extreme Precipitation Extents P. Zhong et al.
- Fighting climate change: soil bacteria communities and topography play a role in plant colonization of desert areas X. Sun et al.
- Australian climate warming: observed change from 1850 and global temperature targets M. Grose et al.
- Evaluation for CMIP6 Climate Models Using a Weighting Technique: A Case Study in the Kherlen River Basin, Mongolia M. Zorigt et al.
- Projections of fire emissions and the consequent impacts on air quality under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming C. Tian et al.
- Selecting CMIP6 models to assess the impact of climate change on energy need for heating and cooling in Europe H. Filahi et al.
- Historical and Future Windstorms in the Northeastern United States S. Pryor et al.
- Towards annual updating of forced warming to date and constrained climate projections A. Ribes et al.
- Bayesian estimates for changes of the Russian river runoff in the 21st century as based on the CMIP6 model ensemble simulations А. Medvedev et al.
- Selecting and weighting dynamical models using data-driven approaches P. Le Bras et al.
- Evaluation of CMIP6 models toward dynamical downscaling over 14 CORDEX domains M. Zhang et al.
- Drivers of Recent North Pacific Decadal Variability: The Role of Aerosol Forcing A. Dittus et al.
- Correlation Between Sea‐Level Rise and Aspects of Future Tropical Cyclone Activity in CMIP6 Models J. Lockwood et al.
- Concerning prognostic estimations on hazardous weather events: a road to nowhere or to home? Y. Kolokolov & A. Monovskaya
- Pantropical Indo-Atlantic temperature gradient modulates multi-decadal AMOC variability in models and observations B. Ferster et al.
- Dominant inflation of the Arctic Ocean’s Beaufort Gyre in a warming climate Q. Wang et al.
- Model spread and progress in climate modelling J. Jebeile & A. Barberousse
- Reducing Snow Amount Uncertainty in CMIP6 PanCanadian Climate Projections D. Matte et al.
- Deep learning-driven statistical bias correction for climate risk assessment of projected temperature extremes in the Nordic region P. Loganathan et al.
- How well have CMIP3, CMIP5 and CMIP6 future climate projections portrayed the recently observed warming D. Carvalho et al.
- Climate response to off-equatorial stratospheric sulfur injections in three Earth system models – Part 1: Experimental protocols and surface changes D. Visioni et al.
- Assessing sensitivities of climate model weighting to multiple methods, variables, and domains in the south-central United States A. Wootten et al.
- Ensemble Numerical Experiments with Earth System Models A. Eliseev
- Learning from weather and climate science to prepare for a future pandemic S. Schemm et al.
- Machine learning to optimize climate projection over China with multi-model ensemble simulations T. Li et al.
- Identifying climate models based on their daily output using machine learning L. Brunner & S. Sippel
- Evaluating regional climate change during 2021–2080 for Iran and neighboring countries (a comparative analysis of projections and reanalysis data) H. Dehban et al.
- Temperature and Precipitation Change over South China in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models: Historical Simulation and Future Projection D. Peng et al.
- Optimizing category-based statistical metrics for selecting global climate models in rainfall projections for Peninsular Malaysia Z. Sa’adi et al.
- Assessing observational constraints on future European climate in an out-of-sample framework C. O’Reilly et al.
- Temperature variability projections remain uncertain after constraining them to best performing Large Ensembles of individual Climate Models L. Suarez-Gutierrez & N. Maher
- Bayesian Estimates of Changes in Russian River Runoff in the 21st Century Based on the CMIP6 Ensemble Model Simulations A. Medvedev et al.
- Optimizing climate model selection in regional studies using an adaptive weather type based framework: a case study for extreme heat in Belgium F. Serras et al.
- Dynamical downscaling CMIP6 models over New Zealand: added value of climatology and extremes P. Gibson et al.
- Uncertainties in projections of climate extremes indices in South America via Bayesian inference C. Gouveia et al.
- A global climate model ensemble for downscaled monthly climate normals over North America C. Mahony et al.
- Global warming increases risk from compound dry‐hot events to human and agricultural systems Y. Zhang et al.
- Representing natural climate variability in an event attribution context: Indo-Pakistani heatwave of 2022 S. Nath et al.
- Projecting Global Mean Sea‐Level Change Using CMIP6 Models T. Hermans et al.
- Validation of key Arctic energy and water budget components in CMIP6 S. Winkelbauer et al.
- Large potential of performance-based model weighting to improve decadal climate forecast skill V. Verjans et al.
- A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs) M. Meinshausen et al.
- Projected changes and uncertainty in cold surges over northern China using the CMIP6 weighted multi-model ensemble S. Shuaifeng & Y. Xiaodong
- Climate Change Signal in Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Today and Near Future C. Lee et al.
- Probabilistic projections of future warming and climate sensitivity trajectories P. Goodwin
- FaIRv2.0.0: a generalized impulse response model for climate uncertainty and future scenario exploration N. Leach et al.
- Combination of Decadal Predictions and Climate Projections in Time: Challenges and Potential Solutions D. Befort et al.
- On the role of moist and dry processes in atmospheric blocking biases in the Euro-Atlantic region in CMIP6 E. Dolores-Tesillos et al.
- Future Projections and Uncertainty Assessment of Precipitation Extremes in the Korean Peninsula from the CMIP6 Ensemble with a Statistical Framework Y. Shin et al.
- Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow in the Ayazma River Basin in the Marmara Region of Turkey K. Seddiqe et al.
- Assessing CMIP6 uncertainties at global warming levels G. Evin et al.
- ClimLoco1.0: CLimate variable confidence Interval of Multivariate Linear Observational COnstraint V. Portmann et al.
- Future precipitation extremes over base Himalayan Uttarakhand region: analysis using the statistically downscaled, bias-corrected high-resolution NEX-GDDP datasets B. Vinodhkumar et al.
- Constraining CMIP6 Projections of an Ice‐Free Arctic Using a Weighting Scheme J. Zhao et al.
- Extreme weather and cascading photovoltaic power vulnerabilities under climate change P. Adigun et al.
- A simple framework for likely climate projections applied to tropical width D. Baldassare & T. Reichler
- Observational constraints reduce model spread but not uncertainty in global wetland methane emission estimates K. Chang et al.
- Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Land Suitability: An Interpretable Machine Learning-Based Eurasia Case Study V. Shevchenko et al.
- Using Neural Networks to Predict Hurricane Storm Surge and to Assess the Sensitivity of Surge to Storm Characteristics J. Lockwood et al.
- Projecting solar peak hours in southern Spain using temperature-based machine learning models until 2100 J. Bellido-Jiménez et al.
- Changes of extreme precipitation in the Philippines, projected from the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble J. Hong et al.
- Use of meta-heuristic approach in the estimation of aquifer's response to climate change under shared socioeconomic pathways N. Zeydalinejad & R. Dehghani
- A chance to “cure” local climate systems and reconcile humanity with Nature Y. Kolokolov & A. Monovskaya
- Substantial changes in the probability of future annual temperature extremes R. Slater et al.
- Microplastics in global rivers: Sustainable practices Y. Guo et al.
- Simulations With the Marine Biogeochemistry Library (MARBL) M. Long et al.
- Historical footprints and future projections of global dust burden from bias-corrected CMIP6 models J. Liu et al.
- Human Versus Natural Influences on Climate and Biodiversity: The Carbon Dioxide Connection W. Davis
- Comparison of Climate Model Large Ensembles With Observations in the Arctic Using Simple Neural Networks Z. Labe & E. Barnes
- Linking hydroclimate indices to projected warming temperature and increased precipitation under CMIP6 for a sub-arctic basin C. Nakigudde et al.
- Assessment and Constraint of Mesozooplankton in CMIP6 Earth System Models C. Petrik et al.
- Effects of multi-observations uncertainty and models similarity on climate change projections R. Pathak et al.
- Estimating Regionalized Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change Over Europe by Performance-Based Weighting of CORDEX Projections F. Sperna Weiland et al.
- Future extreme precipitation may shift to colder seasons in northern mid- and high latitudes D. Zhu et al.
- Change in Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau Projected by Weighted CMIP6 Models Y. Zhao et al.
- RECCAP2 Future Component: Consistency and Potential for Regional Assessment to Constrain Global Projections C. Jones et al.
- Climate change may reduce suitable habitat for freshwater fish in a tropical watershed L. Peluso et al.
- Rarest rainfall events will see the greatest relative increase in magnitude under future climate change G. Gründemann et al.
- Assessing high-resolution precipitation extremes in Central Asia: evaluation and future projections S. Gummadi et al.
- Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections Z. Nicholls et al.
- Sign of Observed California Temperature Trends Depends on Data Set Homogenization: Implications for Weighting and Downscaling A. Charn et al.
- Securing the future of Colombian cacao: projected suitability changes and adaptation strategies under climate change T. Fremout et al.
- MESMER-M: an Earth system model emulator for spatially resolved monthly temperature S. Nath et al.
- Future Changes in Various Cold Surges over China in CMIP6 Projections L. Ma et al.
- Assessment of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity of the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Through Simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum J. Zhu et al.
- Observational constraints project a ~50% AMOC weakening by the end of this century V. Portmann et al.
- Predicting daily maximum temperature over Andhra Pradesh using machine learning techniques S. Velivelli et al.
- Evaluating the phase evolution of CMIP GCMs for agricultural climate-change impact assessments in China L. Yao et al.
- A circulation-based performance atlas of the CMIP5 and 6 models for regional climate studies in the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes S. Brands
- Dynamic simulation of land use change and habitat quality assessment under climate change scenarios in Nanchang, China Z. Chen et al.
- Revealing the Impact of Global Heating on North Atlantic Circulation Using Transparent Machine Learning M. Sonnewald & R. Lguensat
- From emission scenarios to spatially resolved projections with a chain of computationally efficient emulators: coupling of MAGICC (v7.5.1) and MESMER (v0.8.3) L. Beusch et al.
- A Novel Statistical Framework for Assessing Future Drought Using Multiple Global Climate Model: The Weighted Multimodal Adaptive Standardized Precipitation Index R. Fatima & Z. Ali
- Future climate change implications in Bhutan from a downscaled and bias‐adjusted CMIP6 multimodel ensemble F. Lehner et al.
- Projected changes in daily and multi-day extreme rainfall across the U.S. using downscaled CMIP6 models* G. Perez et al.
- The effectiveness of machine learning‐based multi‐model ensemble predictions of CMIP6 in Western Ghats of India S. Shetty et al.
- Impact of multi-scenario land-use changes on habitat quality evolution in the Yangtze River economic belt B. Dong et al.
- Evaluation of global teleconnections in CMIP6 climate projections using complex networks C. Dalelane et al.
- Climate-aware decision-making: lessons for electric grid infrastructure planning and operations A. Brockway et al.
- Assessing the impact of global warming on windstorms in the northeastern United States using the pseudo-global-warming method J. Sethunadh et al.
- Change of global land extreme temperature in the future X. Zhang et al.
- Constraining uncertainty in projected precipitation over land with causal discovery K. Debeire et al.
- Intensified changes in extreme climate events over the Philippines region under future climate scenarios S. Ignacio-Reardon et al.
- The Mediterranean climate change hotspot in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections J. Cos et al.
- Comparing CMIP6 Climate Model Simulations of Annual Global Mean Temperatures to a New Combined Data Product P. Craigmile & P. Guttorp
- Development of a new hybrid ensemble method for accurate characterization of future drought using multiple global climate models M. Yousaf et al.
- Emergence of climate change signal in CMIP6 extreme indices N. Schuhen et al.
- A novel procedure for monitoring temperature characteristics using multiple climate projections R. Khalil & Z. Ali
- Three decades of simulating global temperature patterns with coupled global climate models L. Brunner et al.
- Indian summer monsoon simulations in successive generations of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model R. Kumar et al.
- Evaluating observed and future spatiotemporal changes in precipitation and temperature across China based on CMIP6‐GCMs K. Lu et al.
- CMIP6 Earth System Models Project Greater Acceleration of Climate Zone Change Due To Stronger Warming Rates A. Bayar et al.
- Application-specific optimal model weighting of global climate models: A red tide example A. Elshall et al.
- Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6 C. Tebaldi et al.
- Probabilistic projections of El Niño Southern Oscillation properties accounting for model dependence and skill R. Olson et al.
- Improvement in the skill of CMIP6 decadal hindcasts for extreme rainfall events over the Indian summer monsoon region G. Konda et al.
- The role of crop simulation modeling in assessing potential climate change impacts D. Timlin et al.
- Assessing Climate Change Effects on Winter Wheat Production in the 3H Plain: Insights from Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Projections Y. Xu et al.
- Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe T. Palmer et al.
- Plant Phenomics: The Force Behind Tomorrow’s Crop Phenotyping Tools P. Kumari et al.
- Assessment of winter three-dimensional extreme cold events over the Northern Hemisphere during 1959–2020 based on CMIP6 models X. Wang et al.
- Dispersal abilities favor commensalism in animal-plant interactions under climate change P. Lemes et al.
- An updated assessment of past and future warming over France based on a regional observational constraint A. Ribes et al.
- Evolution of land surface feedbacks on extreme heat: Adapting existing coupling metrics to a changing climate P. Dirmeyer et al.
- Screening CMIP6 models for Chile based on past performance and code genealogy F. Gateño et al.
- The potential for structural errors in emergent constraints B. Sanderson et al.
- Projecting Wintertime Newly Formed Arctic Sea Ice through Weighting CMIP6 Model Performance and Independence J. Zhao et al.
- Surface air temperature variability over India in CMIP6 models during spring and early summer: after effect of El Niño S. Velivelli et al.
- Dynamic Response of Surface Water Temperature in Urban Lakes under Different Climate Scenarios—A Case Study in Dianchi Lake, China H. Duan et al.
- Scenarios of change in the realized climatic niche of mountain carnivores and ungulates C. Dragonetti et al.
- Observation-based selection of climate models projects Arctic ice-free summers around 2035 D. Docquier & T. Koenigk
- Opposite effects of climate and land‐use/cover change on Mediterranean herpetofauna: Insights from the southern Apennines D. Biancolini et al.
- network-based constraint to evaluate climate sensitivity L. Ricard et al.
- Projected Changes and Uncertainty of Cold Surges Over Northern China Using the Cmip6 Weighted Multi-Model Ensemble S. Song & X. Yan
- Future temperature and salinity in Puget Sound, Washington State, under CMIP6 climate change scenarios S. Walker et al.
- Characterising the range and outliers in CMIP6 multi-model climate projections of extremes P. Pall & A. King
- A CMIP6-based multi-model downscaling ensemble to underpin climate change services in Australia M. Grose et al.
- A non-stationary climate-informed weather generator for assessing future flood risks V. Nguyen et al.
- Why we need lower-performance climate models R. O’Loughlin
- The Impact of Climate Change and Carbon Policy on Company Earnings M. Goldklang et al.
- Influence of groundwater recharge projections on climate-driven subsurface warming: insights from numerical modeling M. Tsypin et al.
- Vulnerability to climate change of cultivated and wild cacao in Ecuador V. Ceccarelli et al.
- Cloud properties and their projected changes in CMIP models with low to high climate sensitivity L. Bock & A. Lauer
- Present-day North Atlantic salinity constrains future warming of the Northern Hemisphere I. Park et al.
- Projection of temperature and precipitation under climate change in Tabriz, Iran B. Ghazi & E. Jeihouni
- Bayesian weighting of climate models based on climate sensitivity E. Massoud et al.
- Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights C. Guivarch et al.
- Leveraging emergent constraints to reduce uncertainty in future compound drought and heatwave events across mainland China M. Wu et al.
- Increasing Fire Weather Potential Over Northeast China Linked to Declining Bering Sea Ice G. Liu et al.
- Biogeochemical and Physical Assessment of CMIP5 and CMIP6 Ocean Components for the Southwest Pacific Ocean G. Rickard et al.
- Filtering CMIP6 models in the Euro-Mediterranean based on a circulation patterns approach M. Olmo et al.
- Large spread in the representation of compound long-duration dry and hot spells over Europe in CMIP5 C. Manning et al.
- How fast is the frequency of precipitation extremes doubling in global land regions? G. Chagnaud et al.
- The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7 B. Sanderson et al.
- Integrated Assessment of Climate-Driven Streamflow Changes in a Transboundary Lake Basin Using CMIP6-SWAT+-BMA: A Sustainability Perspective F. Xiao et al.
- Delivering probabilistic climate hazards assessments D. Huard et al.
- Scenario choice impacts carbon allocation projection at global warming levels L. de Mora et al.
- Model weighting for ISMIP6-Greenland based on observations and similarity among models X. Luo & S. Nowicki
- An Assessment of the Oceanic Physical and Biogeochemical Components of CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models for the Ross Sea Region G. Rickard et al.
- Model-Based Assessment of Phenological and Climate Suitability Dynamics for Winter Wheat in the 3H Plain Under Future Climate Scenarios Y. Xu et al.
- Enhancing global CMIP6 model temperature predictions using deep learning neural networks S. Velivelli et al.
- Future sea-level projections with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-sheet model J. Park et al.
- Performance assessment of 22 CMIP6 climate models for projecting wind climate and wind power over the Mediterranean Sea E. Çalışır et al.
- Comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 models in simulating mean and extreme precipitation over East Africa B. Ayugi et al.
- Evaluation of Dynamically Downscaled CMIP6‐CCAM Models Over Australia S. Chapman et al.
- Eddy activity in the Arctic Ocean projected to surge in a warming world X. Li et al.
- Confronting Earth System Model trends with observations I. Simpson et al.
- Climate model Selection by Independence, Performance, and Spread (ClimSIPS v1.0.1) for regional applications A. Merrifield et al.
- Opinion: Why all emergent constraints are wrong but some are useful – a machine learning perspective P. Nowack & D. Watson-Parris
- Observed and CMIP6 projected rainfall variability and change in drylands of southern Ethiopia A. Chinasho et al.
- Downscaling and bias-correction contribute considerable uncertainty to local climate projections in CMIP6 D. Lafferty & R. Sriver
- Description of historical and future projection simulations by the global coupled E3SMv1.0 model as used in CMIP6 X. Zheng et al.
- Future Extreme Precipitation in Summer Will Become More Widespread in China Depending on Level of Warming R. Yu et al.
- Evolution of the Internal Climate Modes under Future Warming J. Coburn & S. Pryor
- A Comparison of Regional Climate Projections With a Range of Climate Sensitivities C. Barnes et al.
- Running to warmer-drier springs in the Greater Mekong Subregion as climate warms Z. Dong et al.
- Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia R. Fewster et al.
- Contribution of large-scale atmospheric circulation and anthropogenic aerosols to recent summer warming over western Europe H. Douville et al.
- Future Projections and Uncertainty Assessment of Precipitation Extremes in Iran from the CMIP6 Ensemble J. Hong et al.
- Projections of changes in ecosystem productivity under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming C. Tian et al.
- Evaluation of atmospheric circulations for dynamic downscaling in CMIP6 models over East Asia S. Song et al.
- Natural variability is a large source of uncertainty in future projections of hypoxia in the Baltic Sea H. Markus Meier et al.
- Impacts of marine heatwaves on tropical western and central Pacific Island nations and their communities N. Holbrook et al.
- Opening Pandora's box: reducing global circulation model uncertainty in Australian simulations of the carbon cycle L. Teckentrup et al.
- Should we think of observationally constrained multidecade climate projections as predictions? T. Li et al.
- Projected shrinking of tropical vegetation biomass potential with future hydroclimatic shifts F. Meunier et al.
- A novel statistical framework for the reduction of uncertainties in multimodel ensemble of global climate models of precipitation simulations R. Khalil & Z. Ali
- New Potential to Reduce Uncertainty in Regional Climate Projections by Combining Physical and Socio‐Economic Constraints F. Lehner et al.
- The ExtremeX global climate model experiment: investigating thermodynamic and dynamic processes contributing to weather and climate extremes K. Wehrli et al.
- Temporal fragmentation of the energy demand in Europe: Impact of climate change on the maneuverability of energy system H. Filahi et al.
- Sustainable food systems and nutrition in the 21st century: a report from the 22nd annual Harvard Nutrition Obesity Symposium J. Fanzo et al.
- Prediction of trade-offs and synergies and analysis of driving forces of ecosystem services in Jiangxi, China Y. Chen et al.
- Extreme climate changes over three major river basins in China as seen in CMIP5 and CMIP6 X. Zhu et al.
- Observational constraints suggest a smaller effective radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions C. Park et al.
- Technical note: What does the Standardized Streamflow Index actually reflect? Insights and implications for hydrological drought analysis F. Lema et al.
- Tropical and subtropical Asia's valued tree species under threat H. Gaisberger et al.
- Pitfalls in diagnosing temperature extremes L. Brunner & A. Voigt
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 09 May 2026
Short summary
In this study, we weight climate models by their performance with respect to simulating aspects of historical climate and their degree of interdependence. Our method is found to increase projection skill and to correct for structurally similar models. The weighted end-of-century mean warming (2081–2100 relative to 1995–2014) is 3.7 °C with a likely (66 %) range of 3.1 to 4.6 °C for the strong climate change scenario SSP5-8.5; this is a reduction of 0.4 °C compared with the unweighted mean.
In this study, we weight climate models by their performance with respect to simulating aspects...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint