Articles | Volume 11, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-807-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-807-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
An investigation of weighting schemes suitable for incorporating large ensembles into multi-model ensembles
Anna Louise Merrifield
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Lukas Brunner
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Ruth Lorenz
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Iselin Medhaug
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Reto Knutti
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
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- A novel optimized machine learning ensemble approach for future drought assessment R. Khalil & Z. Ali
- An information-theoretic approach to obtain ensemble averages from Earth system models C. Sierra & E. Muñoz
- Beyond the ordinary metrics on the evaluation of historical Euro-CORDEX simulations over Türkiye: the mutual information approach S. Vazifehkhah et al.
- Investigating the ability of CMIP6 HighResMIP models to simulate rainy season precipitation over the Lancang-Mekong River Basin D. Yao et al.
- Application-specific optimal model weighting of global climate models: A red tide example A. Elshall et al.
- Leveraging emergent constraints to reduce uncertainty in future compound drought and heatwave events across mainland China M. Wu et al.
- To what extent horizontal resolution improves the simulation of precipitation in CMIP6 HighResMIP models over Southwest China? Z. Jin et al.
- Selecting and weighting dynamical models using data-driven approaches P. Le Bras et al.
- Lessons for multi-model ensemble design drawn from emulator experiments: application to a large ensemble for 2100 sea level contributions of the Greenland ice sheet J. Rohmer et al.
- Bayesian weighting of climate models based on climate sensitivity E. Massoud et al.
- Temperature variability projections remain uncertain after constraining them to best performing Large Ensembles of individual Climate Models L. Suarez-Gutierrez & N. Maher
- Large ensemble climate model simulations: introduction, overview, and future prospects for utilising multiple types of large ensemble N. Maher et al.
- Combination of Decadal Predictions and Climate Projections in Time: Challenges and Potential Solutions D. Befort et al.
- Projections of climate change and its impacts based on CMIP6 models—calling attention to quantifying and constraining uncertainty Q. Zhang et al.
- Toward Consistent Observational Constraints in Climate Predictions and Projections G. Hegerl et al.
- A harmonized dataset of ground-mounted solar energy in the US with enhanced metadata J. Stid et al.
- Projecting future exposure to compound precipitation and wind extremes using Copula methods with Bayesian model averaging S. Liu et al.
- The Mediterranean climate change hotspot in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections J. Cos et al.
- Sign of Observed California Temperature Trends Depends on Data Set Homogenization: Implications for Weighting and Downscaling A. Charn et al.
- Assessing observational constraints on future European climate in an out-of-sample framework C. O’Reilly et al.
- Evaluation and Projection of Degree-Days and Degree-Days Categories in Southeast Europe Using EURO-CORDEX H. Chervenkov & K. Slavov
- Constraining uncertainty in projected precipitation over land with causal discovery K. Debeire et al.
- Rarest rainfall events will see the greatest relative increase in magnitude under future climate change G. Gründemann et al.
- Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data C. O'Reilly et al.
- Extreme Heat Events over Southeast Europe Based on NEX-GDDP Ensemble: Present Climate Evaluation and Future Projections H. Chervenkov & K. Malcheva
- Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe T. Palmer et al.
- Terrestrial water storage in Australia under stress from compound climate extremes C. Ndehedehe et al.
- Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence L. Brunner et al.
- Projected changes in surface air temperature over Pakistan under bias-constrained CMIP6 models R. Karim et al.
- Climate model Selection by Independence, Performance, and Spread (ClimSIPS v1.0.1) for regional applications A. Merrifield et al.
- Formally combining different lines of evidence in extreme-event attribution F. Otto et al.
- Natural variability-focused assessment of climate overshoot timing J. Ludescher et al.
- Data-Driven Estimation of Reference Evapotranspiration in Paraguay from Geographical and Temporal Predictors B. Cemek et al.
- Population-Weighted Degree-Days over Southeast Europe—Near Past Climate Evaluation and Future Projections with NEX-GDDP CMIP6 Ensemble H. Chervenkov & K. Slavov
- Understanding and modelling wildfire regimes: an ecological perspective S. Harrison et al.
- Inter-rater reliability adaptive weighting (IRRAWE) - a novel ensemble scheme for improved precipitation projections using CMIP6 climate models R. Khalil & Z. Ali
- Comparison of Climate Model Large Ensembles With Observations in the Arctic Using Simple Neural Networks Z. Labe & E. Barnes
- Comparisons Between CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models: Simulations of Climate Indices Influencing Food Security, Infrastructure Resilience, and Human Health in Canada S. Bourdeau‐Goulet & E. Hassanzadeh
- Estimating Regionalized Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change Over Europe by Performance-Based Weighting of CORDEX Projections F. Sperna Weiland et al.
- Projected Changes and Time of Emergence of Temperature Extremes Over Australia in CMIP5 and CMIP6 X. Deng et al.
- A systematic analysis of climate model precipitation in southern Brazil M. Pereima et al.
- Model weighting for ISMIP6-Greenland based on observations and similarity among models X. Luo & S. Nowicki
- Change in Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau Projected by Weighted CMIP6 Models Y. Zhao et al.
- RECCAP2 Future Component: Consistency and Potential for Regional Assessment to Constrain Global Projections C. Jones et al.
- Opening Pandora's box: reducing global circulation model uncertainty in Australian simulations of the carbon cycle L. Teckentrup et al.
- Contrasting changes in hydrological processes of the Volta River basin under global warming M. Dembélé et al.
- Emergence of climate change signal in CMIP6 extreme indices N. Schuhen et al.
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Short summary
Justifiable uncertainty estimates of future change in northern European winter and Mediterranean summer temperature can be obtained by weighting a multi-model ensemble comprised of projections from different climate models and multiple projections from the same climate model. Weights reduce the influence of model biases and handle dependence by identifying a projection's model of origin from historical characteristics; contributions from the same model are scaled by the number of members.
Justifiable uncertainty estimates of future change in northern European winter and Mediterranean...
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