Articles | Volume 11, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-807-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-807-2020
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16 Sep 2020
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 16 Sep 2020

An investigation of weighting schemes suitable for incorporating large ensembles into multi-model ensembles

Anna Louise Merrifield, Lukas Brunner, Ruth Lorenz, Iselin Medhaug, and Reto Knutti

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Short summary
Justifiable uncertainty estimates of future change in northern European winter and Mediterranean summer temperature can be obtained by weighting a multi-model ensemble comprised of projections from different climate models and multiple projections from the same climate model. Weights reduce the influence of model biases and handle dependence by identifying a projection's model of origin from historical characteristics; contributions from the same model are scaled by the number of members.
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