Articles | Volume 11, issue 3
Research article
 | Highlight paper
16 Sep 2020
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 16 Sep 2020

An investigation of weighting schemes suitable for incorporating large ensembles into multi-model ensembles

Anna Louise Merrifield, Lukas Brunner, Ruth Lorenz, Iselin Medhaug, and Reto Knutti

Data sets

ESD_weighting_large_ensembles: Paper Release (Version v1.0) A. L. Merrifield, L. Brunner, and R. Lorenz

Model code and software

WCRP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) ESGF

CanESM2 Large Ensembles Output Environment and Climate Change Canada

MPI Grand Ensemble Output Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

ERA-20C Output ECMWF


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Short summary
Justifiable uncertainty estimates of future change in northern European winter and Mediterranean summer temperature can be obtained by weighting a multi-model ensemble comprised of projections from different climate models and multiple projections from the same climate model. Weights reduce the influence of model biases and handle dependence by identifying a projection's model of origin from historical characteristics; contributions from the same model are scaled by the number of members.
Final-revised paper