Articles | Volume 10, issue 1
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 189–203, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 189–203, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019

Research article 21 Mar 2019

Research article | 21 Mar 2019

September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction – a skillful new statistical approach

Monica Ionita et al.

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Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (18 Dec 2018) by Christian Franzke
AR by Monica Ionita-Scholz on behalf of the Authors (27 Feb 2019)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (01 Mar 2019) by Christian Franzke
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (07 Mar 2019)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (08 Mar 2019) by Christian Franzke
AR by Monica Ionita-Scholz on behalf of the Authors (11 Mar 2019)  Author's response    Manuscript
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Short summary
Based on a simple statistical model we show that the September sea ice extent has a high predictive skill, up to 4 months ahead, based on previous months' oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Our statistical model skillfully captures the interannual variability of the September sea ice extent and could provide a valuable tool for identifying relevant regions and oceanic and atmospheric parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic.
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