Articles | Volume 10, issue 1
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 189–203, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 189–203, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019

Research article 21 Mar 2019

Research article | 21 Mar 2019

September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction – a skillful new statistical approach

Monica Ionita et al.

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Short summary
Based on a simple statistical model we show that the September sea ice extent has a high predictive skill, up to 4 months ahead, based on previous months' oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Our statistical model skillfully captures the interannual variability of the September sea ice extent and could provide a valuable tool for identifying relevant regions and oceanic and atmospheric parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic.
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