September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction  – a skillful new statistical approach

Ionita, Monica; Grosfeld, Klaus; Scholz, Patrick; Treffeisen, Renate; Lohmann, Gerrit

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019

Articles | Volume 10, issue 1

Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 189–203, 2019

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019

© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 189–203, 2019

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019

© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 10, issue 1

Research article 21 Mar 2019

Research article | 21 Mar 2019

September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction – a skillful new statistical approach

Monica Ionita et al.

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Total article views: 1,956 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML	PDF	XML	Total	Supplement	BibTeX	EndNote
1,376	474	106	1,956	164	68	66

HTML: 1,376
PDF: 474
XML: 106
Total: 1,956
Supplement: 164
BibTeX: 68
EndNote: 66

Views and downloads (calculated since 20 Sep 2018)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Sep 2018	139	22	3	164
Oct 2018	246	26	7	279
Nov 2018	98	28	6	132
Dec 2018	23	11	3	37
Jan 2019	11	3	4	18
Feb 2019	16	7	3	26
Mar 2019	164	47	7	218
Apr 2019	126	31	4	161
May 2019	60	24	4	88
Jun 2019	27	11	1	39
Jul 2019	18	13	2	33
Aug 2019	26	20	4	50
Sep 2019	12	13	0	25
Oct 2019	14	10	4	28
Nov 2019	29	12	3	44
Dec 2019	28	11	3	42
Jan 2020	26	10	2	38
Feb 2020	30	7	3	40
Mar 2020	18	12	1	31
Apr 2020	14	10	3	27
May 2020	11	3	2	16
Jun 2020	54	35	3	92
Jul 2020	36	37	11	84
Aug 2020	15	9	3	27
Sep 2020	16	3	3	22
Oct 2020	13	9	0	22
Nov 2020	18	7	4	29
Dec 2020	22	9	3	34
Jan 2021	27	14	2	43
Feb 2021	13	4	4	21
Mar 2021	20	12	2	34
Apr 2021	6	4	2	12

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 20 Sep 2018)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Sep 2018	139	22	3	164
Oct 2018	246	26	7	279
Nov 2018	98	28	6	132
Dec 2018	23	11	3	37
Jan 2019	11	3	4	18
Feb 2019	16	7	3	26
Mar 2019	164	47	7	218
Apr 2019	126	31	4	161
May 2019	60	24	4	88
Jun 2019	27	11	1	39
Jul 2019	18	13	2	33
Aug 2019	26	20	4	50
Sep 2019	12	13	0	25
Oct 2019	14	10	4	28
Nov 2019	29	12	3	44
Dec 2019	28	11	3	42
Jan 2020	26	10	2	38
Feb 2020	30	7	3	40
Mar 2020	18	12	1	31
Apr 2020	14	10	3	27
May 2020	11	3	2	16
Jun 2020	54	35	3	92
Jul 2020	36	37	11	84
Aug 2020	15	9	3	27
Sep 2020	16	3	3	22
Oct 2020	13	9	0	22
Nov 2020	18	7	4	29
Dec 2020	22	9	3	34
Jan 2021	27	14	2	43
Feb 2021	13	4	4	21
Mar 2021	20	12	2	34
Apr 2021	6	4	2	12

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 1,747 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 1,739 with geography defined and 8 with unknown origin.

Country	#	Views	%

1

1

Cited

Discussed (final revised paper)

Latest update: 20 Apr 2021

Short summary

Based on a simple statistical model we show that the September sea ice extent has a high predictive skill, up to 4 months ahead, based on previous months' oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Our statistical model skillfully captures the interannual variability of the September sea ice extent and could provide a valuable tool for identifying relevant regions and oceanic and atmospheric parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic.

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