Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 10, issue 1
Articles | Volume 10, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 10, issue 1
Research article
 | 
21 Mar 2019
Research article |  | 21 Mar 2019

September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction – a skillful new statistical approach

Monica Ionita, Klaus Grosfeld, Patrick Scholz, Renate Treffeisen, and Gerrit Lohmann

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Short summary
Based on a simple statistical model we show that the September sea ice extent has a high predictive skill, up to 4 months ahead, based on previous months' oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Our statistical model skillfully captures the interannual variability of the September sea ice extent and could provide a valuable tool for identifying relevant regions and oceanic and atmospheric parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic.
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