Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 9, issue 1
Articles | Volume 9, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-135-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-135-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Articles | Volume 9, issue 1
Research article
 | 
21 Feb 2018
Research article |  | 21 Feb 2018

Selecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble properties

Nadja Herger, Gab Abramowitz, Reto Knutti, Oliver Angélil, Karsten Lehmann, and Benjamin M. Sanderson

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Short summary
Users presented with large multi-model ensembles commonly use the equally weighted model mean as a best estimate, ignoring the issue of near replication of some climate models. We present an efficient and flexible tool that finds a subset of models with improved mean performance compared to the multi-model mean while at the same time maintaining the spread and addressing the problem of model interdependence. Out-of-sample skill and reliability are demonstrated using model-as-truth experiments.
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