Articles | Volume 9, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-135-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-135-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Selecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble properties
Nadja Herger
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
Gab Abramowitz
Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
Reto Knutti
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Oliver Angélil
Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
Karsten Lehmann
Satalia, Berlin, Germany
Benjamin M. Sanderson
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
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- Selection of multi-model ensemble of general circulation models for the simulation of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature based on spatial assessment metrics K. Ahmed et al. 10.5194/hess-23-4803-2019
- Categorization of precipitation changes in China under 1.5 °C and 3 °C global warming using the bivariate joint distribution from a multi-model perspective L. Qiu et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/abc8bb
- Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence L. Brunner et al. 10.5194/esd-11-995-2020
- Climate model Selection by Independence, Performance, and Spread (ClimSIPS v1.0.1) for regional applications A. Merrifield et al. 10.5194/gmd-16-4715-2023
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- Application-specific optimal model weighting of global climate models: A red tide example A. Elshall et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100334
- Selecting and weighting dynamical models using data-driven approaches P. Le Bras et al. 10.5194/npg-31-303-2024
- Impact of surface temperature biases on climate change projections of the South Pacific Convergence Zone C. Dutheil et al. 10.1007/s00382-019-04692-6
- Comparing Methods to Constrain Future European Climate Projections Using a Consistent Framework L. Brunner et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0953.1
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Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 14 Dec 2024
Short summary
Users presented with large multi-model ensembles commonly use the equally weighted model mean as a best estimate, ignoring the issue of near replication of some climate models. We present an efficient and flexible tool that finds a subset of models with improved mean performance compared to the multi-model mean while at the same time maintaining the spread and addressing the problem of model interdependence. Out-of-sample skill and reliability are demonstrated using model-as-truth experiments.
Users presented with large multi-model ensembles commonly use the equally weighted model mean as...
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Final-revised paper
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