Articles | Volume 9, issue 1
Research article
21 Feb 2018
Research article |  | 21 Feb 2018

Selecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble properties

Nadja Herger, Gab Abramowitz, Reto Knutti, Oliver Angélil, Karsten Lehmann, and Benjamin M. Sanderson

Model code and software

EnsembleSelection/ N. Herger and K. Lehmann

Short summary
Users presented with large multi-model ensembles commonly use the equally weighted model mean as a best estimate, ignoring the issue of near replication of some climate models. We present an efficient and flexible tool that finds a subset of models with improved mean performance compared to the multi-model mean while at the same time maintaining the spread and addressing the problem of model interdependence. Out-of-sample skill and reliability are demonstrated using model-as-truth experiments.
Final-revised paper