Articles | Volume 8, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1191-2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1191-2017
Research article
 | 
19 Dec 2017
Research article |  | 19 Dec 2017

Future supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel

Florian Sallaba, Stefan Olin, Kerstin Engström, Abdulhakim M. Abdi, Niklas Boke-Olén, Veiko Lehsten, Jonas Ardö, and Jonathan W. Seaquist

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Cited articles

Abdi, A. M., Seaquist, J., Tenenbaum, D. E., Eklundh, L., and Ardo, J.: The supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 094003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/9/094003, 2014.
Ahlström, A., Xia, J. Y., Arneth, A., Luo, Y., and Smith, B.: Importance of vegetation dynamics for future terrestrial carbon cycling, Environmental Research Letters, 10, 054019, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/089501, 2015.
Ahmed, S. A., Diffenbaugh, N. S., Hertel, T. W., and Martin, W. J.: Agriculture and Trade Opportunities for Tanzania: Past Volatility and Future Climate Change, Rev. Dev. Econ., 16, 429–447, 2012.
Ardö, J.: Comparison between remote sensing and a dynamic vegetation model for estimating terrestrial primary production of Africa, Carbon Balance and Management, 10, 8, https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-015-0018-5, 2015.
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Short summary
The UN sustainable development goals for eradicating hunger are at high risk for failure in the Sahel. We show that the demand for food and feed biomass will begin to outstrip its supply in the 2040s if current trends continue. Though supply continues to increase it is outpaced by a greater increase in demand due to a combination of population growth and a shift to diets rich in animal proteins. This underscores the importance of policy interventions that would act to mitigate such developments.
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