Articles | Volume 6, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-435-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-435-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
13 Jul 2015
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 13 Jul 2015
Decomposing uncertainties in the future terrestrial carbon budget associated with emission scenarios, climate projections, and ecosystem simulations using the ISI-MIP results
K. Nishina
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
P. Falloon
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, UK
A. D. Friend
Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Downing Place, Cambridge CB2 3EN, UK
D. J. Beerling
Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environment, Joint Unit of CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
D. B. Clark
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
R. Kahana
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, UK
National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
Institute of Applied Energy, 105-0003 Tokyo, Japan
W. Lucht
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A 31, 14473, Potsdam, Germany
M. Lomas
Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK
R. Pavlick
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Hans-Knöll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany
S. Schaphoff
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A 31, 14473, Potsdam, Germany
L. Warszawaski
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A 31, 14473, Potsdam, Germany
T. Yokohata
National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
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35 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Model Structure and Climate Data Uncertainty in Historical Simulations of the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle (1850–2014) G. Bonan et al. 10.1029/2019GB006175
- Climate change risk to forests in China associated with warming Y. Yin et al. 10.1038/s41598-017-18798-6
- Dependence of economic impacts of climate change on anthropogenically directed pathways J. Takakura et al. 10.1038/s41558-019-0578-6
- Capturing ecological processes in dynamic forest models: why there is no silver bullet to cope with complexity N. Huber et al. 10.1002/ecs2.3109
- Reliable predictions of forest ecosystem functioning require flawless climate forcings M. Jourdan et al. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108703
- Pathways to identify and reduce uncertainties in agricultural climate impact assessments B. Wang et al. 10.1038/s43016-024-01014-w
- How robust are future projections of forest landscape dynamics? Insights from a systematic comparison of four forest landscape models G. Petter et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104844
- Evaluation of terrestrial pan-Arctic carbon cycling using a data-assimilation system E. López-Blanco et al. 10.5194/esd-10-233-2019
- No evidence for increased loss of old carbon in a temperate organic soil after 13 years of simulated climatic warming despite increased CO2 emissions M. Briones et al. 10.1111/gcb.15540
- Soil carbon sequestration simulated in CMIP6-LUMIP models: implications for climatic mitigation A. Ito et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/abc912
- Interactive climate factors restrict future increases in spring productivity of temperate and boreal trees C. Zohner et al. 10.1111/gcb.15098
- The future of tundra carbon storage in Greenland – Sensitivity to climate and plant trait changes E. López-Blanco et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157385
- What drives the future supply of regulating ecosystem services in a mountain forest landscape? R. Seidl et al. 10.1016/j.foreco.2019.03.047
- Reliability ensemble averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties J. Exbrayat et al. 10.5194/esd-9-153-2018
- Impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on fire carbon emissions in the future: Sustainable economic development might decrease future emissions C. Park et al. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102667
- Towards an increasingly biased view on Arctic change E. López-Blanco et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01903-1
- Stand‐scale climate change impacts on forests over large areas: transient responses and projection uncertainties N. Huber et al. 10.1002/eap.2313
- How random are predictions of forest growth? The importance of weather variability J. Horemans et al. 10.1139/cjfr-2019-0366
- Evaluating two land surface models for Brazil using a full carbon cycle benchmark with uncertainties A. Caen et al. 10.1002/cli2.10
- Sources of Uncertainty in Modeled Land Carbon Storage within and across Three MIPs: Diagnosis with Three New Techniques S. Zhou et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0357.1
- Importance of climate uncertainty for projections of forest ecosystem services R. Snell et al. 10.1007/s10113-018-1337-3
- Data-mining analysis of the global distribution of soil carbon in observational databases and Earth system models S. Hashimoto et al. 10.5194/gmd-10-1321-2017
- Large uncertainties in future biome changes in Africa call for flexible climate adaptation strategies C. Martens et al. 10.1111/gcb.15390
- Understanding the uncertainty in global forest carbon turnover T. Pugh et al. 10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020
- Evaluation of climate‐related carbon turnover processes in global vegetation models for boreal and temperate forests M. Thurner et al. 10.1111/gcb.13660
- Sensitivity of 21st century simulated ecosystem indicators to model parameters, prescribed climate drivers, RCP scenarios and forest management actions for two Finnish boreal forest sites J. Mäkelä et al. 10.5194/bg-17-2681-2020
- Photosynthetic productivity and its efficiencies in ISIMIP2a biome models: benchmarking for impact assessment studies A. Ito et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aa7a19
- Study on spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and driving factors of carbon emission in Anhui Province J. Xu 10.1038/s41598-023-41507-5
- Simulating the land carbon sink: Progresses and challenges of terrestrial ecosystem models W. Yuan et al. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110264
- Evaluation of global warming impacts on the carbon budget of terrestrial ecosystems in monsoon Asia: a multi‐model analysis A. Ito et al. 10.1007/s11284-016-1354-y
- Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change H. Lotze et al. 10.1073/pnas.1900194116
- Decomposing sources of uncertainty in climate change projections of boreal forest primary production T. Kalliokoski et al. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.06.030
- Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems A. Ito et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab702b
- Diverging land-use projections cause large variability in their impacts on ecosystems and related indicators for ecosystem services A. Bayer et al. 10.5194/esd-12-327-2021
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1 citations as recorded by crossref.
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Latest update: 02 Apr 2025
Short summary
Our study focused on uncertainties in terrestrial C cycling under newly developed scenarios with CMIP5. This study presents first results for examining relative uncertainties of projected terrestrial C cycling in multiple projection components. Only using our new model inter-comparison project data sets enables us to evaluate various uncertainty sources in projection periods. The information on relative uncertainties is useful for climate science and climate change impact evaluation.
Our study focused on uncertainties in terrestrial C cycling under newly developed scenarios with...
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