Articles | Volume 6, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-287-2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-287-2015
Research article
 | 
27 May 2015
Research article |  | 27 May 2015

Uncertainty in temperature response of current consumption-based emissions estimates

J. Karstensen, G. P. Peters, and R. M. Andrew

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Aamaas, B., Peters, G. P., and Fuglestvedt, J. S.: Simple emission metrics for climate impacts, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 145–170, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-145-2013, 2013.
Andres, R. J., Boden, T. A., Bréon, F.-M., Ciais, P., Davis, S., Erickson, D., Gregg, J. S., Jacobson, A., Marland, G., Miller, J., Oda, T., Olivier, J. G. J., Raupach, M. R., Rayner, P., and Treanton, K.: A synthesis of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel combustion, Biogeosciences, 9, 1845–1871, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-1845-2012, 2012.
Andrew, R. M. and Peters, G. P.: A multi-region input–output table based on the global trade analysis project database (GTAP-MRIO), Eco. Syst. Res., 25, 99–121, 2013.
Andrew, R. M., Davis, S. J., and Peters, G. P.: Climate policy and dependence on traded carbon, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 034011, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034011, 2013.
Bond, T. C., Streets, D. G., Yarber, K. F., Nelson, S. M., Woo, J. H., and Klimont, Z.: A technology-based global inventory of black and organic carbon emissions from combustion, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. (1984–2012), 109, D14203, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003697 2004.
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We quantify uncertainties in estimates of global temperature change from regional and sectoral territorial- and consumption-based emissions. We find that the uncertainties are sensitive to the emission allocations, mix of pollutants, the metric used and its time horizon, and the level of aggregation of the results. Uncertainties in the final results are dominated by metric parameters and emission uncertainties, while the economic data appear to have small uncertainties at the national level.
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