Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 6, issue 1
Articles | Volume 6, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-287-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-287-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Articles | Volume 6, issue 1
Research article
 | 
27 May 2015
Research article |  | 27 May 2015

Uncertainty in temperature response of current consumption-based emissions estimates

J. Karstensen, G. P. Peters, and R. M. Andrew

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Short summary
We quantify uncertainties in estimates of global temperature change from regional and sectoral territorial- and consumption-based emissions. We find that the uncertainties are sensitive to the emission allocations, mix of pollutants, the metric used and its time horizon, and the level of aggregation of the results. Uncertainties in the final results are dominated by metric parameters and emission uncertainties, while the economic data appear to have small uncertainties at the national level.
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