Articles | Volume 6, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-267-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-267-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Future hydrological extremes: the uncertainty from multiple global climate and global hydrological models
I. Giuntoli
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford OX10 8BB, UK
Irstea, UR HHLY Hydrology-Hydraulics, Lyon, France
J.-P. Vidal
Irstea, UR HHLY Hydrology-Hydraulics, Lyon, France
C. Prudhomme
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford OX10 8BB, UK
D. M. Hannah
School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK
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Cited
138 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Going Beyond the Ensemble Mean: Assessment of Future Floods From Global Multi‐Models I. Giuntoli et al.
- The influence of regional climatic changes on the flood regime in European Russia in the 21st Century M. Sidorova & N. Yasinsky
- Revisiting hydro-ecological impacts of climate change on a restored floodplain wetland via hydrological / hydraulic modelling and the UK Climate Projections 2018 scenarios J. Thompson et al.
- Understanding the role of regional water connectivity in mitigating climate change impacts on surface water supply stress in the United States K. Duan et al.
- Amplified Drought and Flood Risk Under Future Socioeconomic and Climatic Change H. Tabari et al.
- Review of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in Water Management M. Elgendy et al.
- Integrating climate models to confront the illusion of certainty in water planning: evidence from Morocco M. Zemzami et al.
- Increased rainfall-runoff drives flood hazard intensification in Central Himalayan river systems I. Pink et al.
- Climate change impacts on Three Gorges Reservoir impoundment and hydropower generation P. Qin et al.
- Food and water security: Analysis of integrated modeling platforms K. McNeill et al.
- Impacts of climate change on hydrological droughts at basin scale: A case study of the Weihe River Basin, China P. Zhao et al.
- Uncertainty Analysis of Climate Change Impact on River Flow Extremes Based on a Large Multi-Model Ensemble J. De Niel et al.
- Contrasting Influences of Human Activities on Hydrological Drought Regimes Over China Based on High‐Resolution Simulations X. Yang et al.
- Implication of climate variable selections on the uncertainty of reference crop evapotranspiration projections propagated from climate variables projections under climate change C. Lai et al.
- Multi-annual and seasonal variability of low-flow river conditions in southeastern Poland K. Raczyński & J. Dyer
- Ensemble reconstruction of spatio-temporal extreme low-flow events in France since 1871 L. Caillouet et al.
- Drying in newly intermittent rivers leads to higher variability of invertebrate communities J. Crabot et al.
- The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change Y. Satoh et al.
- Changes in streamflow drought and flood distribution over Poland using trend decomposition K. Raczyński & J. Dyer
- Inter-model comparison of hydrological impacts of climate change on the Upper Blue Nile basin using ensemble of hydrological models and global climate models A. Teklesadik et al.
- Projecting Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events Across Six Event Categories and Three Spatial Scales S. Lange et al.
- Flooding in the Yellow River Basin, China: Spatiotemporal patterns, drivers and future tendency Y. Sun et al.
- Identification of the contributing area to river discharge during low-flow periods M. Gillet et al.
- Performance evaluation of hydrological models using ensemble of General Circulation Models in the northeastern China M. Faiz et al.
- Application of VIC-WUR model for assessing the spatiotemporal distribution of water availability in anthropogenically-impacted basins H. Yousefi Sohi et al.
- Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies for Rainfed Barley Production in the Almería Province, Spain F. Saretto et al.
- Physio‐climatic controls on vulnerability of watersheds to climate and land use change across the U. S. A. Deshmukh & R. Singh
- Changes in low and high flows in the Vistula and the Odra basins: Model projections in the European‐scale context M. Piniewski et al.
- Uncertainty in estimating the relative change of design floods under climate change: a stylized experiment with process-based, deep learning, and hybrid models S. Poudel et al.
- Evaluation on uncertainty sources in projecting hydrological changes over the Xijiang River basin in South China F. Yuan et al.
- Flood risk in a range of spatial perspectives – from global to local scales Z. Kundzewicz et al.
- Uncertainty separation of drought projection in the 21st century using SMILEs and CMIP6 Y. Ji et al.
- Simulated Changes in Seasonal and Low Flows with Climate Change for Irish Catchments H. Meresa et al.
- The hydrologic model as a source of nutrient loading uncertainty in a future climate H. Kujawa et al.
- Securing Biodiversity, Functional Integrity, and Ecosystem Services in Drying River Networks (DRYvER) T. Datry et al.
- Future water resources and droughts in the Atlas Mountains of Morocco under a high-emission climate scenario O. Lahnik et al.
- Global change in streamflow extremes under climate change over the 21st century B. Asadieh & N. Krakauer
- Uncertainties in streamflow projections: a comprehensive examination of variabilities arising from climate and hydrological models in the Tahtali Dam Basin, Turkey U. Kirdemir et al.
- The risk of bacterial virulence in the face of concentrated river pollution R. Al Haj Ishak Al Ali et al.
- Simulating low flows over a heterogeneous landscape in southeastern Poland K. Raczyński & J. Dyer
- Climate risk-informed decision analysis (CRIDA): ‘top-down’ vs ‘bottom-up’ decision making for planning water resources infrastructure J. Manous & E. Stakhiv
- Flood risk and its reduction in China Z. Kundzewicz et al.
- Impact of the number of donor catchments and the efficiency threshold on regionalization performance of hydrological models W. Qi et al.
- Quantification of impacts between 1.5 and 4 °C of global warming on flooding risks in six countries Y. He et al.
- Impact of climate change on the streamflow in northern Patagonia J. Rivera et al.
- Quantifying uncertainty contributions of hydrologic modeling process to hydrologic drought projection in South Korea J. Park et al.
- Intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models and climate change impacts projected for 12 large river basins worldwide—a synthesis V. Krysanova et al.
- Global evaluation of model agreement and uncertainty in terrestrial water storage simulations from ISIMIP 2b framework J. Ju et al.
- Increasing Risk of Ecological Change to Major Rivers of the World With Global Warming J. Thompson et al.
- Influence of warming and atmospheric circulation changes on multidecadal European flood variability S. Brönnimann et al.
- Uncertainties in projected runoff over the conterminous United States I. Giuntoli et al.
- A conceptual stochastic rainfall-runoff model of an order-one catchment under a stationary precipitation regime S. Vallejo-Bernal et al.
- High-end climate change impact on European runoff and low flows – exploring the effects of forcing biases L. Papadimitriou et al.
- Evaluation of sources of uncertainty in projected hydrological changes under climate change in 12 large-scale river basins T. Vetter et al.
- Effects of characteristics of calibration periods on building hydrologic models in the upper basins of South Korea J. Park et al.
- Propagation of forcing and model uncertainties on to hydrological drought characteristics in a multi-model century-long experiment in large river basins L. Samaniego et al.
- Understanding the influence of hydrologic parameter uncertainty on Community Water Model predictions: a diagnostic assessment through extensive ensemble simulations J. Kim & K. Ahn
- Projected increased risk of water deficit over major West African river basins under future climates M. Sylla et al.
- Use of expert elicitation to assign weights to climate and hydrological models in climate impact studies E. Sebok et al.
- Simulation and Projection of Climate Extremes in China by a Set of Statistical Downscaled Data L. Wei et al.
- Assessing Future Extreme Precipitation in South Thailand: Trends in Extreme Indices and Non-Stationary GEV Return Levels Under CMIP6 SSP3-7.0 T. Chaithong
- Projection of runoff characteristics as a response to regional climate change in a Central/Eastern European catchment A. Kis et al.
- Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe – their causes and consequences for decision making Z. Kundzewicz et al.
- Challenges for drought assessment in the Mediterranean region under future climate scenarios Y. Tramblay et al.
- Evaluation of the impacts of climate change on streamflow through hydrological simulation and under downscaling scenarios: case study in a watershed in southeastern Brazil G. Neves et al.
- Quantifying uncertainty sources in extreme flow projections for three watersheds with different climate features in China L. Zhang et al.
- Uncertainty component estimates in transient climate projections B. Hingray et al.
- Grid-based simulation of river flows in Northern Ireland: Model performance and future flow changes A. Kay et al.
- Climate change alters low flows in Europe under global warming of 1.5, 2, and 3 °C A. Marx et al.
- Historical and projected future runoff over the Mekong River basin C. Wang et al.
- Comparative analysis of flood characteristic changes under Meiyu and typhoon rainfall in Zhejiang Province, China (1964–2021) J. Qian et al.
- Projection and uncertainty of precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 multimodel ensembles over nine major basins in China K. Xu et al.
- Accuracy of sedimentgraph modeling from topography map scale and DEM mesh size S. Sadeghi et al.
- Global characterization of hydrological and meteorological droughts under future climate change: The importance of timescales, vegetation‐CO2feedbacks and changes to distribution functions S. Vicente‐Serrano et al.
- Global evaluation of runoff from 10 state-of-the-art hydrological models H. Beck et al.
- The European 2015 drought from a climatological perspective M. Ionita et al.
- Extreme value analysis dilemma for climate change impact assessment on global flood and extreme precipitation H. Tabari
- Comparing Bayesian Model Averaging and Reliability Ensemble Averaging in Post-Processing Runoff Projections under Climate Change K. Duan et al.
- Ecohydrological interactions during drought J. Klaus et al.
- Evaluating the future total water storage change and hydrological drought under climate change over lake basins, East Africa A. Seka et al.
- Impacts of climate change on environmental flows in West Africa's Upper Niger Basin and the Inner Niger Delta J. Thompson et al.
- Quantifying dynamic sensitivity of optimization algorithm parameters to improve hydrological model calibration W. Qi et al.
- Sensitivity of seasonal flood simulations to regional climate model spatial resolution M. Castaneda-Gonzalez et al.
- New Zealand River Hydrology under Late 21st Century Climate Change D. Collins
- Machine Learning-Based Reconstruction and Prediction of Groundwater Time Series in the Allertal, Germany T. Tran et al.
- Copula-based risk evaluation of global meteorological drought in the 21st century based on CMIP5 multi-model ensemble projections C. Wu et al.
- ROBIN: Reference observatory of basins for international hydrological climate change detection S. Turner et al.
- Impact of climate change in the flow regimes of the Upper and Middle Amazon River C. de Souza Costa et al.
- The critical role of uncertainty in projections of hydrological extremes H. Meresa & R. Romanowicz
- Leveraging global climate models to assess multi-year hydrologic drought M. Vieira & T. Stadnyk
- The benefits and trade-offs of multi-variable calibration of the WaterGAP global hydrological model (WGHM) in the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins H. Hasan et al.
- A controlled model experiment for the global hydrological model WaterGAP3: Understanding recent and new advances in the model structure J. Kupzig & M. Flörke
- Impact of Climate Change on Water Sources and River‐Floodplain Mixing in the Natural Wetland Floodplain of Biebrza River T. Berezowski & D. Partington
- Uncertainty assessment of drought characteristics projections in humid subtropical basins in China based on multiple CMIP5 models and different index definitions K. Xu et al.
- Future Precipitation-Driven Meteorological Drought Changes in the CMIP5 Multimodel Ensembles under 1.5°C and 2°C Global Warming C. Wu et al.
- Impacts of climate change on streamflow in the upper Yangtze River basin B. Su et al.
- Future evolution and uncertainty of river flow regime change in a deglaciating river basin J. Mackay et al.
- Projected impacts of climate change on major dams in the Upper Yangtze River Basin P. Qin et al.
- Decoding uranium variation over the Indian peninsula through leveraging standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indices and groundwater level fluctuations D. Panday & M. Kumar
- Uncertainty in hydrological analysis using multi-GCM predictions and multi-parameters under RCP 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios in Manipur River basin, India V. Anand et al.
- Impacts of future deforestation and climate change on the hydrology of the Amazon Basin: a multi-model analysis with a new set of land-cover change scenarios M. Guimberteau et al.
- Functional relationships reveal differences in the water cycle representation of global water models S. Gnann et al.
- Comparison and validation of spatial reference evapotranspiration datasets over Africa S. Dehati et al.
- Increased high flows in Germany under 1.5 K, 2.0 K and 3.0 K warming based on a large regional climate model ensemble A. Chandrasekar et al.
- Uncertainty of potential evapotranspiration modelling in climate change impact studies on low flows in North America G. Dallaire et al.
- National-scale analysis of low flow frequency: historical trends and potential future changes A. Kay et al.
- A comparison of hydrological impacts from two ensembles of regional climate projections with a range of climate sensitivities A. Kay
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- Assessing changes of river discharge under global warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin: Approach by using multiple- GCMs and hydrological models J. Chen et al.
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- Simulation of the Hydro-ecological Impacts of Climate Change on an Upland Peatland in the Massif Central J. Thompson et al.
- Corroboration of arsenic variation over the Indian Peninsula through standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indices and groundwater level fluctuations: Water quantity indicators for water quality prediction D. Panday et al.
- Hierarchy of climate and hydrological uncertainties in transient low-flow projections J. Vidal et al.
- Future shift of the relative roles of precipitation and temperature in controlling annual runoff in the conterminous United States K. Duan et al.
- Modeling climate change impacts on streamflow dynamics in the Melka Wakana catchment, Ethiopia T. Geresu et al.
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- Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: a cross-scale study F. Hattermann et al.
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138 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Going Beyond the Ensemble Mean: Assessment of Future Floods From Global Multi‐Models I. Giuntoli et al.
- The influence of regional climatic changes on the flood regime in European Russia in the 21st Century M. Sidorova & N. Yasinsky
- Revisiting hydro-ecological impacts of climate change on a restored floodplain wetland via hydrological / hydraulic modelling and the UK Climate Projections 2018 scenarios J. Thompson et al.
- Understanding the role of regional water connectivity in mitigating climate change impacts on surface water supply stress in the United States K. Duan et al.
- Amplified Drought and Flood Risk Under Future Socioeconomic and Climatic Change H. Tabari et al.
- Review of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in Water Management M. Elgendy et al.
- Integrating climate models to confront the illusion of certainty in water planning: evidence from Morocco M. Zemzami et al.
- Increased rainfall-runoff drives flood hazard intensification in Central Himalayan river systems I. Pink et al.
- Climate change impacts on Three Gorges Reservoir impoundment and hydropower generation P. Qin et al.
- Food and water security: Analysis of integrated modeling platforms K. McNeill et al.
- Impacts of climate change on hydrological droughts at basin scale: A case study of the Weihe River Basin, China P. Zhao et al.
- Uncertainty Analysis of Climate Change Impact on River Flow Extremes Based on a Large Multi-Model Ensemble J. De Niel et al.
- Contrasting Influences of Human Activities on Hydrological Drought Regimes Over China Based on High‐Resolution Simulations X. Yang et al.
- Implication of climate variable selections on the uncertainty of reference crop evapotranspiration projections propagated from climate variables projections under climate change C. Lai et al.
- Multi-annual and seasonal variability of low-flow river conditions in southeastern Poland K. Raczyński & J. Dyer
- Ensemble reconstruction of spatio-temporal extreme low-flow events in France since 1871 L. Caillouet et al.
- Drying in newly intermittent rivers leads to higher variability of invertebrate communities J. Crabot et al.
- The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change Y. Satoh et al.
- Changes in streamflow drought and flood distribution over Poland using trend decomposition K. Raczyński & J. Dyer
- Inter-model comparison of hydrological impacts of climate change on the Upper Blue Nile basin using ensemble of hydrological models and global climate models A. Teklesadik et al.
- Projecting Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events Across Six Event Categories and Three Spatial Scales S. Lange et al.
- Flooding in the Yellow River Basin, China: Spatiotemporal patterns, drivers and future tendency Y. Sun et al.
- Identification of the contributing area to river discharge during low-flow periods M. Gillet et al.
- Performance evaluation of hydrological models using ensemble of General Circulation Models in the northeastern China M. Faiz et al.
- Application of VIC-WUR model for assessing the spatiotemporal distribution of water availability in anthropogenically-impacted basins H. Yousefi Sohi et al.
- Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies for Rainfed Barley Production in the Almería Province, Spain F. Saretto et al.
- Physio‐climatic controls on vulnerability of watersheds to climate and land use change across the U. S. A. Deshmukh & R. Singh
- Changes in low and high flows in the Vistula and the Odra basins: Model projections in the European‐scale context M. Piniewski et al.
- Uncertainty in estimating the relative change of design floods under climate change: a stylized experiment with process-based, deep learning, and hybrid models S. Poudel et al.
- Evaluation on uncertainty sources in projecting hydrological changes over the Xijiang River basin in South China F. Yuan et al.
- Flood risk in a range of spatial perspectives – from global to local scales Z. Kundzewicz et al.
- Uncertainty separation of drought projection in the 21st century using SMILEs and CMIP6 Y. Ji et al.
- Simulated Changes in Seasonal and Low Flows with Climate Change for Irish Catchments H. Meresa et al.
- The hydrologic model as a source of nutrient loading uncertainty in a future climate H. Kujawa et al.
- Securing Biodiversity, Functional Integrity, and Ecosystem Services in Drying River Networks (DRYvER) T. Datry et al.
- Future water resources and droughts in the Atlas Mountains of Morocco under a high-emission climate scenario O. Lahnik et al.
- Global change in streamflow extremes under climate change over the 21st century B. Asadieh & N. Krakauer
- Uncertainties in streamflow projections: a comprehensive examination of variabilities arising from climate and hydrological models in the Tahtali Dam Basin, Turkey U. Kirdemir et al.
- The risk of bacterial virulence in the face of concentrated river pollution R. Al Haj Ishak Al Ali et al.
- Simulating low flows over a heterogeneous landscape in southeastern Poland K. Raczyński & J. Dyer
- Climate risk-informed decision analysis (CRIDA): ‘top-down’ vs ‘bottom-up’ decision making for planning water resources infrastructure J. Manous & E. Stakhiv
- Flood risk and its reduction in China Z. Kundzewicz et al.
- Impact of the number of donor catchments and the efficiency threshold on regionalization performance of hydrological models W. Qi et al.
- Quantification of impacts between 1.5 and 4 °C of global warming on flooding risks in six countries Y. He et al.
- Impact of climate change on the streamflow in northern Patagonia J. Rivera et al.
- Quantifying uncertainty contributions of hydrologic modeling process to hydrologic drought projection in South Korea J. Park et al.
- Intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models and climate change impacts projected for 12 large river basins worldwide—a synthesis V. Krysanova et al.
- Global evaluation of model agreement and uncertainty in terrestrial water storage simulations from ISIMIP 2b framework J. Ju et al.
- Increasing Risk of Ecological Change to Major Rivers of the World With Global Warming J. Thompson et al.
- Influence of warming and atmospheric circulation changes on multidecadal European flood variability S. Brönnimann et al.
- Uncertainties in projected runoff over the conterminous United States I. Giuntoli et al.
- A conceptual stochastic rainfall-runoff model of an order-one catchment under a stationary precipitation regime S. Vallejo-Bernal et al.
- High-end climate change impact on European runoff and low flows – exploring the effects of forcing biases L. Papadimitriou et al.
- Evaluation of sources of uncertainty in projected hydrological changes under climate change in 12 large-scale river basins T. Vetter et al.
- Effects of characteristics of calibration periods on building hydrologic models in the upper basins of South Korea J. Park et al.
- Propagation of forcing and model uncertainties on to hydrological drought characteristics in a multi-model century-long experiment in large river basins L. Samaniego et al.
- Understanding the influence of hydrologic parameter uncertainty on Community Water Model predictions: a diagnostic assessment through extensive ensemble simulations J. Kim & K. Ahn
- Projected increased risk of water deficit over major West African river basins under future climates M. Sylla et al.
- Use of expert elicitation to assign weights to climate and hydrological models in climate impact studies E. Sebok et al.
- Simulation and Projection of Climate Extremes in China by a Set of Statistical Downscaled Data L. Wei et al.
- Assessing Future Extreme Precipitation in South Thailand: Trends in Extreme Indices and Non-Stationary GEV Return Levels Under CMIP6 SSP3-7.0 T. Chaithong
- Projection of runoff characteristics as a response to regional climate change in a Central/Eastern European catchment A. Kis et al.
- Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe – their causes and consequences for decision making Z. Kundzewicz et al.
- Challenges for drought assessment in the Mediterranean region under future climate scenarios Y. Tramblay et al.
- Evaluation of the impacts of climate change on streamflow through hydrological simulation and under downscaling scenarios: case study in a watershed in southeastern Brazil G. Neves et al.
- Quantifying uncertainty sources in extreme flow projections for three watersheds with different climate features in China L. Zhang et al.
- Uncertainty component estimates in transient climate projections B. Hingray et al.
- Grid-based simulation of river flows in Northern Ireland: Model performance and future flow changes A. Kay et al.
- Climate change alters low flows in Europe under global warming of 1.5, 2, and 3 °C A. Marx et al.
- Historical and projected future runoff over the Mekong River basin C. Wang et al.
- Comparative analysis of flood characteristic changes under Meiyu and typhoon rainfall in Zhejiang Province, China (1964–2021) J. Qian et al.
- Projection and uncertainty of precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 multimodel ensembles over nine major basins in China K. Xu et al.
- Accuracy of sedimentgraph modeling from topography map scale and DEM mesh size S. Sadeghi et al.
- Global characterization of hydrological and meteorological droughts under future climate change: The importance of timescales, vegetation‐CO2feedbacks and changes to distribution functions S. Vicente‐Serrano et al.
- Global evaluation of runoff from 10 state-of-the-art hydrological models H. Beck et al.
- The European 2015 drought from a climatological perspective M. Ionita et al.
- Extreme value analysis dilemma for climate change impact assessment on global flood and extreme precipitation H. Tabari
- Comparing Bayesian Model Averaging and Reliability Ensemble Averaging in Post-Processing Runoff Projections under Climate Change K. Duan et al.
- Ecohydrological interactions during drought J. Klaus et al.
- Evaluating the future total water storage change and hydrological drought under climate change over lake basins, East Africa A. Seka et al.
- Impacts of climate change on environmental flows in West Africa's Upper Niger Basin and the Inner Niger Delta J. Thompson et al.
- Quantifying dynamic sensitivity of optimization algorithm parameters to improve hydrological model calibration W. Qi et al.
- Sensitivity of seasonal flood simulations to regional climate model spatial resolution M. Castaneda-Gonzalez et al.
- New Zealand River Hydrology under Late 21st Century Climate Change D. Collins
- Machine Learning-Based Reconstruction and Prediction of Groundwater Time Series in the Allertal, Germany T. Tran et al.
- Copula-based risk evaluation of global meteorological drought in the 21st century based on CMIP5 multi-model ensemble projections C. Wu et al.
- ROBIN: Reference observatory of basins for international hydrological climate change detection S. Turner et al.
- Impact of climate change in the flow regimes of the Upper and Middle Amazon River C. de Souza Costa et al.
- The critical role of uncertainty in projections of hydrological extremes H. Meresa & R. Romanowicz
- Leveraging global climate models to assess multi-year hydrologic drought M. Vieira & T. Stadnyk
- The benefits and trade-offs of multi-variable calibration of the WaterGAP global hydrological model (WGHM) in the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins H. Hasan et al.
- A controlled model experiment for the global hydrological model WaterGAP3: Understanding recent and new advances in the model structure J. Kupzig & M. Flörke
- Impact of Climate Change on Water Sources and River‐Floodplain Mixing in the Natural Wetland Floodplain of Biebrza River T. Berezowski & D. Partington
- Uncertainty assessment of drought characteristics projections in humid subtropical basins in China based on multiple CMIP5 models and different index definitions K. Xu et al.
- Future Precipitation-Driven Meteorological Drought Changes in the CMIP5 Multimodel Ensembles under 1.5°C and 2°C Global Warming C. Wu et al.
- Impacts of climate change on streamflow in the upper Yangtze River basin B. Su et al.
- Future evolution and uncertainty of river flow regime change in a deglaciating river basin J. Mackay et al.
- Projected impacts of climate change on major dams in the Upper Yangtze River Basin P. Qin et al.
- Decoding uranium variation over the Indian peninsula through leveraging standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indices and groundwater level fluctuations D. Panday & M. Kumar
- Uncertainty in hydrological analysis using multi-GCM predictions and multi-parameters under RCP 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios in Manipur River basin, India V. Anand et al.
- Impacts of future deforestation and climate change on the hydrology of the Amazon Basin: a multi-model analysis with a new set of land-cover change scenarios M. Guimberteau et al.
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Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 01 May 2026
Short summary
We assessed future changes in high and low flows globally using runoff projections from global hydrological models (GHMs) driven by global climate models (GCMs) under the RCP8.5 scenario. Further, we quantified the relative size of uncertainty from GHMs and from GCMs using ANOVA. We show that GCMs are the major contributors to uncertainty overall, but GHMs increase their contribution for low flows and can equal or outweigh GCM uncertainty in snow-dominated areas for both high and low flows.
We assessed future changes in high and low flows globally using runoff projections from global...
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