Articles | Volume 6, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-267-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-267-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Future hydrological extremes: the uncertainty from multiple global climate and global hydrological models
I. Giuntoli
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford OX10 8BB, UK
Irstea, UR HHLY Hydrology-Hydraulics, Lyon, France
J.-P. Vidal
Irstea, UR HHLY Hydrology-Hydraulics, Lyon, France
C. Prudhomme
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford OX10 8BB, UK
D. M. Hannah
School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK
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Short summary
We assessed future changes in high and low flows globally using runoff projections from global hydrological models (GHMs) driven by global climate models (GCMs) under the RCP8.5 scenario. Further, we quantified the relative size of uncertainty from GHMs and from GCMs using ANOVA. We show that GCMs are the major contributors to uncertainty overall, but GHMs increase their contribution for low flows and can equal or outweigh GCM uncertainty in snow-dominated areas for both high and low flows.
We assessed future changes in high and low flows globally using runoff projections from global...
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