Future hydrological extremes: the uncertainty from multiple global climate and global hydrological models

Giuntoli, I.; Vidal, J.-P.; Prudhomme, C.; Hannah, D. M.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-267-2015

Articles | Volume 6, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-267-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue:

Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP)

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-267-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 6, issue 1

Research article

|

18 May 2015

Research article |

| 18 May 2015

Future hydrological extremes: the uncertainty from multiple global climate and global hydrological models

I. Giuntoli, J.-P. Vidal, C. Prudhomme, and D. M. Hannah

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Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 06 Jan 2015)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
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Mar 2015	32	30	1	63
Apr 2015	27	11	1	39
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Latest update: 07 Nov 2025

Short summary

We assessed future changes in high and low flows globally using runoff projections from global hydrological models (GHMs) driven by global climate models (GCMs) under the RCP8.5 scenario. Further, we quantified the relative size of uncertainty from GHMs and from GCMs using ANOVA. We show that GCMs are the major contributors to uncertainty overall, but GHMs increase their contribution for low flows and can equal or outweigh GCM uncertainty in snow-dominated areas for both high and low flows.