Surface winds fluctuate. From around 1980 to 2010, surface onshore winds generally became weaker, and they have gained in strength since then. While these fluctuations are well known, we currently do not fully understand why they happen. To investigate the reasons, we use a large set of climate simulations with one model, a so-called large ensemble. We find that the observed long-term wind fluctuations occur naturally under current and future conditions and do not require a specific trigger.

Solar photovoltaics (PV) matters for the carbon neutrality goal. We use climate scenarios to quantify climate risk for PV in Europe and find higher PV potential. The seasonal cycle of PV generation changes in most places. We find an increase in the spatial correlations of daily PV production, implying that PV power balancing through redistribution will be more difficult in the future. Thus, changes in the spatiotemporal structure of PV generation should be included in power system design.

Solar and wind energy generation are weather dependent and can not be switched on when needed. Despite this, stable electricity supply can be obtained by aggregation over large areas, for example Europe. However, we show that strong climate change impedes spatial balancing of electricity because countries are more likely to suffer from simultaneous generation shortfall. As a consequence, local scarcity can less often be balanced by imports.