Articles | Volume 17, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-829-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-829-2026
Research article
 | 
23 Jun 2026
Research article |  | 23 Jun 2026

Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity and recent record-breaking warm years

Patric J. L. Boardman, Joseph Clarke, Peter M. Cox, Chris Huntingford, Chris D. Jones, and Mark S. Williamson

Model code and software

PazzyBoardman449/emergent\_constraint\_climate\_sensitivity: Emergent Constraints on Climate Sensitivity and Recent Record-Breaking Warm Years -- Code Release (climate\_sensitvity\_v01) P. Boardman https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19815864

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Short summary
Climate sensitivity quantifies how much Earth warms for a given radiative forcing, and is often described by the Transient Climate Response (TCR) value. Although the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates the most likely TCR to be 1.8 K, some models predict values >2.4 K. Record warmth in 2023–2024 raises questions as to whether the TCR may be larger than previously suggested. Using up-to-date data, we estimate the TCR to be ~1.8 K. We also show that future warming falls within the low–mid model range, making the 2°C Paris target still feasible.
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