Chaotic fluctuations in Greenland ice streams limit predictability of ice sheet collapse

Kypke, Kolja; Montoya, Marisa; Robinson, Alexander; Alvarez-Solas, Jorge; Swierczek-Jereczek, Jan; Ditlevsen, Peter

doi:10.5194/esd-17-769-2026

Articles | Volume 17, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-769-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-769-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 17, issue 3

Research article

| Highlight paper

|

19 Jun 2026

Research article | Highlight paper |

| 19 Jun 2026

Chaotic fluctuations in Greenland ice streams limit predictability of ice sheet collapse

Kolja Kypke, Marisa Montoya, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, and Peter Ditlevsen

Data sets

Datasets for the article "Chaotic fluctuations in Greenland ice streams limit predictability of ice sheet collapse" K. L. Kypke https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20719953

Model code and software

Code versions of Yelmo, YelmoX and REMBO for the article "Chaotic fluctuations in Greenland ice streams limit predictability of ice sheet collapse" K. L. Kypke et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20670964

Editorial statement

This article provides a concrete example of how chaotic fluctuations in Greenland ice streams limit numerical predictability of ice sheet collapse. The paper identifies a limit to the horizon of predictability and attributes it to the physical structure of the ice sheet. For a fixed warming magnitude and an ensemble of warming rates and initial conditions, the timing of the collapse can differ by tens or hundreds of thousands of years.