Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 17, issue 3
Articles | Volume 17, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-739-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-739-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 3
Research article
 | 
19 Jun 2026
Research article |  | 19 Jun 2026

Assessing the impact of the Human Development Index on historical trends in the INFERNO fire model

João C. M. Teixeira, Chantelle Burton, Douglas I. Kelley, Gerd A. Folberth, Fiona M. O'Connor, Richard A. Betts, and Apostolos Voulgarakis

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Latest update: 19 Jun 2026
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Short summary
Burned area has declined globally since the late 1990s, especially in tropical savannas, yet many climate models miss this trend because they poorly represent human fire use and suppression. We tested whether adding a simple link to human development improves a fire model. This reduced large regional errors and better captured downward trends in several areas, though it increased global underestimation and reduced variability. Human influence is key, but simple assumptions have trade-offs.
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