Articles | Volume 17, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-607-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Assessing the performance of LPJmL-5 in simulating vegetation responses to normal and multi-year droughts
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- Final revised paper (published on 22 May 2026)
- Supplement to the final revised paper
- Preprint (discussion started on 03 Nov 2025)
- Supplement to the preprint
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
| : Report abuse
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4966', Anonymous Referee #1, 02 Dec 2025
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Denise Ruijsch, 15 Dec 2025
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4966', Anonymous Referee #2, 15 Dec 2025
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Denise Ruijsch, 08 Jan 2026
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (23 Jan 2026) by Lan Wang-Erlandsson
AR by Denise Ruijsch on behalf of the Authors (06 Feb 2026)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
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ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (14 Feb 2026) by Lan Wang-Erlandsson
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (23 Feb 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (06 Mar 2026)
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (28 Mar 2026) by Lan Wang-Erlandsson
AR by Denise Ruijsch on behalf of the Authors (17 Apr 2026)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (22 Apr 2026) by Lan Wang-Erlandsson
AR by Denise Ruijsch on behalf of the Authors (24 Apr 2026)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
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ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (11 May 2026) by Lan Wang-Erlandsson
AR by Denise Ruijsch on behalf of the Authors (13 May 2026)
Manuscript
Ruijsch et al., present an in-depth evaluation of the ability of LPJmL-5 to simulate the impact of multi-year droughts on vegetation across the globe. Such an evaluation is much needed as the incidence of prolonged droughts is on the rise globally. The ability of DVMs to accurately simulate vegetation responses to drought is extremely important and global evaluation of this ability is largely lacking. The authors communicate their results well both through the text and the figures. In particular I would like to highlight Figure 4 as a I find the overlay of SPEI and GPP very informative.
That being said, I do unfortunately believe that this work requires some major improvements related to 1.) the identification of droughts using SPEI and 2.) the use of satellite-derived MODIS GPP.
1. SPEI is a widely used to characterize drought conditions particularly because it is standardized and as such always relates to the local climatic context (see Slette et al. 2019). However, this also poses some issues as outlined in Zang et al., (2020). The main argument of Zang et al., is that negative SPEI (e.g. -1 to -2; often characterized as moderate drought) does not necessarily always coincide with "actual" water shortage as determined by the amount of evapotranspiration subtracted from the precipitation. This seems to be the case especially in wet regions of the world such as the tropics or the boreal forest. The consequence is that SPEI may indicate drought conditions when in reality ample water is available (as determined for example by the Maximum Climatic Water Deficit commonly used in tropical regions).
To alleviate this issue which could potentially result in overestimation of droughts, I would suggest to use a second (potentially non-standardized) drought indicator to ensure that droughts are being accurately captured.
Please see Zang et al., (2020) for more detail: https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14809
2. The second issue is the use of MODIS GPP as a stand-in for "observed GPP". Satellite-derived GPP is as much a model as it is based on satellite observations. In the case of MODIS GPP, GPP is calculated by an algorithm using remotely sensed FPAR, a land cover classification, a parameter for the conversion efficiency of PAR, and some climate inputs (Tmean, VPD). Consequently, it is not really accurate to consider satellite-derived GPP from MODIS as "observed". This obviously does not invalidate the comparison with simulated GPP from LPJmL-5, however, it does warrant some further discussion and potentially the use of an alternative product (e.g. SIF) to strengthen the message of this study.
Some concrete issues that need to be addressed in regards to the use of MODIS GPP are:
1. How does the landcover type used by MODIS GPP differ from the landcover type used by LPJmL-5 on a gridcell basis? Could discrepancies between the two landcover products be the cause of some of the mismatch seen between modeled and satellite-derived GPP (e.g. the relatively poor performance of crops)?
2. Both LPJmL and MODIS GPP rely on climate inputs. To what degree does this pose an issue if both products model GPP, at least partially, on the same or similar inputs? Related to this, how would a mismatch between the climate inputs for LPJmL and MODIS affect results? For example, the climate data used for LPJmL indicates a drought in a given gridcell in a given time-period but the MODIS climate input does not? Will this skew results?
3. Yang et al., (2022) highlighted a divergence between DVM simulated GPP and satellite-derived GPP, especially in tropical regions of the southern hemisphere. They identified the uncertainty in tropical LAI data to be a major contributing factor. In particular, they highlighted that: "NOAA satellite orbit changes and MODIS sensor degradation might cause long-term satellite-derived LAI products inconsistent with each other. Xie et al. (2019) also suggested that satellite-derived LAI datasets can cause uncertainties in GPP estimations through model structure and the complexity of the terrain".
As stated before, I do not think this entirely invalidates the results of this study. Rather, I believe this study would be greatly strengthened by 1.) including a secondary remote sensing GPP proxy such as e.g. SIF and 2.) a thorough discussion of the limitations of satellite-derived GPP in the discussion section of this study.