Articles | Volume 17, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-475-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-475-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 May 2026
Research article |
| 06 May 2026
| 06 May 2026
Response of ice sheets, sea-ice and sea level in climate stabilisation and reversibility simulations using a state-of-the-art Earth System Model
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Tarkan A. Bilge
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Thomas J. Bracegirdle
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Paul R. Holland
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Till Kuhlbrodt
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Charlotte Lang
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Spencer Liddicoat
Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services, Exeter, UK
Tom Mitcham
Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Jane Mulcahy
Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services, Exeter, UK
Kaitlin A. Naughten
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Andrew Orr
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Julien Palmieri
National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK
Antony J. Payne
Department of Earth, Ocean and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
Steven Rumbold
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Marc Stringer
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Ranjini Swaminathan
National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Sarah Taylor
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Jeremy Walton
Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services, Exeter, UK
Colin Jones
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
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Short summary
There is a dangerous amount of uncertainty in our predictions of climate change in polar regions because some of feedbacks that might lead to changes that are too rapid for us to adapt to, or that cannot be reversed. We have run a set of simulations with a state-of-the-art Earth System Model that helps improve our understanding of how climate in these regions might change. Some of the aspects we investigate are reversible but many are not, especially those affecting ice sheets and sea level.
There is a dangerous amount of uncertainty in our predictions of climate change in polar regions...
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