Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-235-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-235-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
Research article
 | 
05 Mar 2026
Research article |  | 05 Mar 2026

An EOF-Based Emulator of Means and Covariances of Monthly Climate Fields

Gosha Geogdzhayev, Andre N. Souza, Glenn R. Flierl, and Raffaele Ferrari

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Latest update: 13 May 2026
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Short summary
Climate models serve as good guesses of how humans affect the climate, but they cannot explore all possible future scenarios of interest. We develop a method that can serve as a fast and cheap stand-in to evaluate likely changes in variables like surface temperature and relative humidity at a regional scale in arbitrary future climates. Crucially, our method captures relationships between different geographic areas and predicts both average values and likely ranges using a unified framework.
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