Articles | Volume 17, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1573-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1573-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 Oct 2026
Research article |
| 23 Oct 2026
| 23 Oct 2026
Unexpected land-surface warming following a relatively limited-forcing hypothetical nuclear war
Anson Ka Hei Cheung
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Physics, University of Toronto, 60 St. George St., Toronto, ON, M5S 1A7, Canada
Department of Physics, University of Toronto, 60 St. George St., Toronto, ON, M5S 1A7, Canada
Francesco S. R. Pausata
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Quebec in Montreal, 201 President-Kennedy Avenue, Montreal, QC, H2X 3Y7, Canada
Zhihong Zhuo
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Quebec in Montreal, 201 President-Kennedy Avenue, Montreal, QC, H2X 3Y7, Canada
Marguerite L. Brown
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Quebec in Montreal, 201 President-Kennedy Avenue, Montreal, QC, H2X 3Y7, Canada
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Ilaria Quaglia, Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, Yunqian Zhu, Georgiy Stenchikov, Valentina Aquila, Cheng-Cheng Liu, Graham W. Mann, Yifeng Peng, Takashi Sekiya, Simone Tilmes, Xinyue Wang, Shingo Watanabe, Pengfei Yu, Jun Zhang, Wandi Yu, and Zhihong Zhuo
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Iuri Gorenstein, Ilana Wainer, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Luciana F. Prado, Pedro L. Silva Dias, Allegra N. LeGrande, Clay R. Tabor, and William R. Peltier
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Ewa M. Bednarz, Amy H. Butler, Xinyue Wang, Zhihong Zhuo, Wandi Yu, Georgiy Stenchikov, Matthew Toohey, and Yunqian Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 197–215, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-197-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-197-2026, 2026
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Zhihong Zhuo, Xinyue Wang, Yunqian Zhu, Wandi Yu, Ewa M. Bednarz, Eric Fleming, Peter R. Colarco, Shingo Watanabe, David Plummer, Georgiy Stenchikov, William Randel, Adam Bourassa, Valentina Aquila, Takashi Sekiya, Mark R. Schoeberl, Simone Tilmes, Jun Zhang, Paul J. Kushner, and Francesco S. R. Pausata
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 13161–13176, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-13161-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-13161-2025, 2025
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Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David I. Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, Henk A. Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura C. Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Bablu Sinha, Steven C. Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1611–1653, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025, 2025
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Yunqian Zhu, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Valentina Aquila, Elizabeth Asher, Ewa M. Bednarz, Slimane Bekki, Christoph Brühl, Amy H. Butler, Parker Case, Simon Chabrillat, Gabriel Chiodo, Margot Clyne, Peter R. Colarco, Sandip Dhomse, Lola Falletti, Eric Fleming, Ben Johnson, Andrin Jörimann, Mahesh Kovilakam, Gerbrand Koren, Ales Kuchar, Nicolas Lebas, Qing Liang, Cheng-Cheng Liu, Graham Mann, Michael Manyin, Marion Marchand, Olaf Morgenstern, Paul Newman, Luke D. Oman, Freja F. Østerstrøm, Yifeng Peng, David Plummer, Ilaria Quaglia, William Randel, Samuel Rémy, Takashi Sekiya, Stephen Steenrod, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Rei Ueyama, Daniele Visioni, Xinyue Wang, Shingo Watanabe, Yousuke Yamashita, Pengfei Yu, Wandi Yu, Jun Zhang, and Zhihong Zhuo
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Alex Cabaj, Paul J. Kushner, and Alek A. Petty
The Cryosphere, 19, 3033–3064, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3033-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3033-2025, 2025
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Aleksandra Elias Chereque, Paul J. Kushner, Lawrence Mudryk, Chris Derksen, and Colleen Mortimer
The Cryosphere, 18, 4955–4969, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4955-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4955-2024, 2024
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Marco Gaetani, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Shivangi Tiwari, M. Carmen Alvarez Castro, and Qiong Zhang
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Zhihong Zhuo, Herman F. Fuglestvedt, Matthew Toohey, and Kirstin Krüger
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Zhihong Zhuo, Ingo Kirchner, and Ulrich Cubasch
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Alek A. Petty, Nicole Keeney, Alex Cabaj, Paul Kushner, and Marco Bagnardi
The Cryosphere, 17, 127–156, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-127-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-127-2023, 2023
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We present upgrades to winter Arctic sea ice thickness estimates from NASA's ICESat-2. Our new thickness results show better agreement with independent data from ESA's CryoSat-2 compared to our first data release, as well as new, very strong comparisons with data collected by moorings in the Beaufort Sea. We analyse three winters of thickness data across the Arctic, including 50 cm thinning of the multiyear ice over this 3-year period.
Chih-Chun Chou, Paul J. Kushner, Stéphane Laroche, Zen Mariani, Peter Rodriguez, Stella Melo, and Christopher G. Fletcher
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 4443–4461, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-4443-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-4443-2022, 2022
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Aeolus is the first satellite that provides global wind profile measurements. The mission aims to improve the weather forecasts in the tropics, but also, potentially, in the polar regions. We evaluate the performance of the instrument over the Canadian North and the Arctic by comparing its measured winds in both cloudy and non-cloudy layers to wind data from forecasts, reanalysis, and ground-based instruments. Overall, good agreement was seen, but Aeolus winds have greater dispersion.
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Short summary
If a nuclear war happened, firestorms induced by nuclear detonations in urban areas could inject black carbon (BC) into the upper atmosphere, disrupting global climate. We simulated the climate impacts of relatively limited-forcing scenarios using an Earth system model. In all scenarios, BC blocks sunlight, causes global cooling, and decreases precipitation for more than a decade. However, a drastic global warming emerges midway through the first year and lasts until the year's end.
If a nuclear war happened, firestorms induced by nuclear detonations in urban areas could inject...
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