Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 17, issue 5
Articles | Volume 17, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1573-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1573-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 5
Research article
 | 
23 Oct 2026
Research article |  | 23 Oct 2026

Unexpected land-surface warming following a relatively limited-forcing hypothetical nuclear war

Anson Ka Hei Cheung, Paul J. Kushner, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Zhihong Zhuo, and Marguerite L. Brown

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Short summary
If a nuclear war happened, firestorms induced by nuclear detonations in urban areas could inject black carbon (BC) into the upper atmosphere, disrupting global climate. We simulated the climate impacts of relatively limited-forcing scenarios using an Earth system model. In all scenarios, BC blocks sunlight, causes global cooling, and decreases precipitation for more than a decade. However, a drastic global warming emerges midway through the first year and lasts until the year's end.
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