Articles | Volume 17, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1513-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1513-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Impacts of simulated coastal ocean alkalinity enhancement on the seasonal carbon cycle in European waters under a low- and a high-emission scenario
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Bologna, Italy
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany
Neha Mehendale
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany
Institute for Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Tronje P. Kemena
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany
Sandy Avrutin
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany
David P. Keller
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany
now at: The Carbon to Sea Initiative, Washington, DC, USA
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Abby Lunstrum, David Keller, Jens Hartmann, and Charly Andre Moras
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.70212/cdrxiv.2026517.v2, https://doi.org/10.70212/cdrxiv.2026517.v2, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
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Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) is a proposed technology to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. The effectiveness of OAE is determined by several physical, biological, and geochemical processes, many of which are poorly constrained and not typically considered in recent assessments. To help align research and improve estimates of OAE efficiency, we provide a framework describing these processes, identify major knowledge gaps, and highlight research priorities.
Vanessa Teske, Tronje Kemena, and Andreas Oschlies
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4781, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4781, 2026
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Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement is an ocean-based carbon dioxide removal method, but common metrics for assessing its effectiveness are difficult to apply in Earth system models. We show that changes in the global ocean carbon and alkalinity inventories are unreliable indicators for CO₂ uptake by the ocean because alkalinity additions to the ocean can alter the timing of large-scale climate modes, such as El Niño. Regional air-sea CO₂ fluxes provide more robust estimates.
Iris Kriest, Tronje Kemena, and Haichao Guo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3423, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3423, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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We calibrated rate constants of an ocean biogeochemical model in a computationally efficient circulation. We then transferred these constants to the same biogeochemical model coupled to a computationally expensive Earth system model (ESM) and investigate the effects of this transfer. Compared to an earlier version of the ESM, we find a considerable improvement of the revised model, suggesting that prior calibration of parameters in efficient circulation models can support ESM model development.
Lina Garcia-Suarez, Katja Fennel, Neha Mehendale, Tronje Kemena, and David P. Keller
Ocean Sci., 22, 1183–1193, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1183-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1183-2026, 2026
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This study shows that regional ocean warming can make the Gulf Stream appear to shift north more rapidly than it actually does. Temperature-based proxies, like the Gulf Stream North Wall, overestimate changes in its position. Methods based on sea surface height provide a more accurate view. These results help improve how we track changes in ocean currents and avoid misinterpreting signs of climate-related shifts.
Timothée Bourgeois, Giang T. Tran, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Jörg Schwinger, Friederike Fröb, Thomas L. Frölicher, Thorsten Blenckner, Olivier Torres, Jean Negrel, David P. Keller, Andreas Oschlies, Laurent Bopp, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 22, 5435–5462, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5435-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5435-2025, 2025
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Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions significantly impact ocean ecosystems through climate change and acidification, leading to either progressive or abrupt changes. This study maps the crossing of physical and ecological limits for various ocean impact metrics under three emission scenarios. Using Earth system models, we identify when these limits are exceeded, highlighting the urgent need for ambitious climate action to safeguard the world's oceans and ecosystems.
Haichao Guo, Wolfgang Koeve, Andreas Oschlies, Yan-Chun He, Tronje Peer Kemena, Lennart Gerke, and Iris Kriest
Ocean Sci., 21, 1167–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1167-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1167-2025, 2025
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We evaluated the effectiveness of the inverse Gaussian transit time distribution (IG-TTD) with respect to estimating the mean state and temporal changes of seawater age, defined as the duration since water last had contact with the atmosphere, within the tropical thermocline. Results suggest that the IG-TTD underestimates seawater age. Moreover, the IG-TTD constrained by a single tracer gives spurious trends in water age. Incorporating an additional tracer improves IG-TTD's accuracy for estimating temporal change of seawater age.
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Short summary
Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE) is a marine carbon dioxide removal method with large-scale potential. Using an Earth System Model, we explored the effects of continuous coastal OAE application on the seasonal carbon cycle under low and high emissions. We found that stratification retains higher alkalinity over summer, reducing the ocean pCO2 and turning the region into a year-round carbon sink. Additionally, high emissions lower the ocean’s buffering capacity and increase winter CO2 uptake.
Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE) is a marine carbon dioxide removal method with large-scale...
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