Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 17, issue 1
Articles | Volume 17, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-151-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-151-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 1
Research article
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03 Feb 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 03 Feb 2026

The largest crop production shocks: magnitude, causes and frequency

Florian Ulrich Jehn, James Mulhall, Simon Blouin, Łukasz G. Gajewski, and Nico Wunderling

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This work shows that massive crop failures—averaging nearly 30% and sometimes reaching 80%—have already happened repeatedly in the real world, not just in future climate scenarios. It directly connects climate change, natural disasters, and food security to everyday risks, highlighting that global food reserves often last less than a year. By grounding catastrophic crop failure in historical data, the research offers a compelling, evidence-based narrative about how close societies may already be to severe food crises.
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Short summary
Large crop failures happen regularly around the world, threatening food security. We analyzed sixty years of global crop production data and found that every country has experienced major crop losses. Climate events like droughts cause most severe disruptions, with some African nations losing up to eighty percent of production. While global crop shocks above five percent are rare, regional disruptions occur frequently. These findings show our food system faces regular large-scale threats.
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