Articles | Volume 17, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1395-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1395-2026
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02 Oct 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 02 Oct 2026

Decoded Antarctic snow accumulation history reconciles observed and modeled trends in accumulation and large-scale warming patterns

David P. Schneider, Ziqi Yin, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Rajashree Tri Datta, and Zachary I. Espinosa

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Editorial statement
This study evaluates how Antarctic ice sheet surface mass balance has evolved over the past 125 years and its deep connections to ocean cooling, wind patterns, and dynamic ice loss. By integrating Earth System modeling with paleoclimate data, the study reconciles observed and modeled trends in snowfall, sea surface temperatures, and large-scale climate variability. The findings not only explain long-standing climate model discrepancies but also confirm an anthropogenic increase in Antarctic snowfall, with implications for global sea level rise and regional climate change.
Short summary
Snow accumulation on the Antarctic Ice Sheet could increase with greenhouse warming, storing water that would otherwise raise sea level. Employing multiple Earth system model simulations and reconstructions, we detect a warming-driven increase in accumulation consistent with greenhouse gas forcing, but observations can only be matched if wind and meltwater impacts on large-scale surface warming patterns are accounted for. This implies that predictions ignoring these effects are overconfident.
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