Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 17, issue 5
Articles | Volume 17, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1395-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1395-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 5
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
02 Oct 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 02 Oct 2026

Decoded Antarctic snow accumulation history reconciles observed and modeled trends in accumulation and large-scale warming patterns

David P. Schneider, Ziqi Yin, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Rajashree Tri Datta, and Zachary I. Espinosa

Data sets

NCAR CESM2 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP piControl G. Danabasoglu et al. https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.7733

Data for "Antarctic ice-sheet meltwater reduces transient warming and climate sensitivity through the sea-surface temperature pattern effect" Y. Dong https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7072847

Wind-Nudging Data for Schneider et. al., 2025: Antarctic Snow Fall (0.1) Z. Espinosa https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16459492

ERA-20C Project (ECMWF Atmospheric Reanalysis of the 20th Century) European Centre For Medium-Range Weather Forecasts https://doi.org/10.5065/D6VQ30QG

NOAA Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) B. Huang et al. https://doi.org/10.7289/V5T72FNM

CESM2 Large Ensemble IBS Center for Climate Physics et al. https://doi.org/10.26024/KGMP-C556

Southern Hemisphere winds, pressure, and temperature over the 20th century from proxy-data assimilation G. K. O'Connor et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5507606

Proxy Reconstructions and Amundsen Sea Simulations with Repeated Atmospheric Forcings G. O'Connor et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15243743

CAM6 Prescribed SST AMIP Ensembles A. Phillips and I. Simpson https://doi.org/10.26024/800d-nj44

CESM2 Pacific Pacemaker Ensemble, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research N. A. Rosenbloom et al. https://doi.org/10.26024/GTRS-TF57

CESM2 Single Forcing Large Ensemble Project I. Simpson and N. Rosenbloom https://doi.org/10.26024/YW4W-1W27

ERA5 monthly averaged data on single levels from 1940 to present Copernicus Climate Change Service https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.f17050d7

Model code and software

Decoded Antarctic snow accumulation history reconciles observed and modeled trends in accumulation and large-scale warming patterns Z. Yin https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16541813

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Editorial statement
This study evaluates how Antarctic ice sheet surface mass balance has evolved over the past 125 years and its deep connections to ocean cooling, wind patterns, and dynamic ice loss. By integrating Earth System modeling with paleoclimate data, the study reconciles observed and modeled trends in snowfall, sea surface temperatures, and large-scale climate variability. The findings not only explain long-standing climate model discrepancies but also confirm an anthropogenic increase in Antarctic snowfall, with implications for global sea level rise and regional climate change.
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Short summary
Snow accumulation on the Antarctic Ice Sheet could increase with greenhouse warming, storing water that would otherwise raise sea level. Employing multiple Earth system model simulations and reconstructions, we detect a warming-driven increase in accumulation consistent with greenhouse gas forcing, but observations can only be matched if wind and meltwater impacts on large-scale surface warming patterns are accounted for. This implies that predictions ignoring these effects are overconfident.
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