Articles | Volume 17, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1237-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1237-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
09 Sep 2026
Research article |
| 09 Sep 2026
| 09 Sep 2026
Land carbon response to positive, zero, and negative CO2 emissions across Earth system models
Department of Atmospheric and Climate Science, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Charles D. Koven
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, USA
Cristian Proistosecu
Department of Climate, Meteorology, and Atmospheric Science, University of Illinois Urbana Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA
Department of Earth Sciences and Environmental Change, University of Illinois Urbana Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA
Rosie A. Fisher
CICERO International Center for Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
Benjamin M. Sanderson
CICERO International Center for Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
Victor Brovkin
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Tomohiro Hajima
Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
Chris D. Jones
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, UK
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Nancy Y. Kiang
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
David M. Lawrence
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Spencer Liddicoat
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Hannah Liddy
Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
Anastasia Romanou
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
Dept. Applied Phys. Applied Math., Columbia U., New York, NY, USA
Roland Séférian
Météo-France, CNRS, Univ. Toulouse, CNRM, Toulouse, France
Lori T. Sentman
NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
Norman J. Steinert
CICERO International Center for Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
Jerry Tjiputra
NORCE Research AS, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Tilo Ziehn
CSIRO Environment, Aspendale, Australia
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Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 29 Sep 2026
Short summary
We analyzed simulations from Earth system models (ESM) with a constant rate of emissions, zero emissions, and negative emissions of CO2 to quantify the response of land carbon sinks. We found that under positive emissions vegetation in the tropics gained carbon. Under zero emissions and negative emissions most ESMs lost carbon from vegetation in the tropics but gained carbon in mid- and high-latitudes, mostly in soils. Our findings imply that tropical carbon is vulnerable under zero emissions.
We analyzed simulations from Earth system models (ESM) with a constant rate of emissions, zero...
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