Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 17, issue 5
Articles | Volume 17, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1237-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1237-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 5
Research article
 | 
09 Sep 2026
Research article |  | 09 Sep 2026

Land carbon response to positive, zero, and negative CO2 emissions across Earth system models

Abigail L. S. Swann, Charles D. Koven, Cristian Proistosecu, Rosie A. Fisher, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Victor Brovkin, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Nancy Y. Kiang, David M. Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Hannah Liddy, Anastasia Romanou, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Norman J. Steinert, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn

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Short summary
We analyzed simulations from Earth system models (ESM) with a constant rate of emissions, zero emissions, and negative emissions of CO2 to quantify the response of land carbon sinks. We found that under positive emissions vegetation in the tropics gained carbon. Under zero emissions and negative emissions most ESMs lost carbon from vegetation in the tropics but gained carbon in mid- and high-latitudes, mostly in soils. Our findings imply that tropical carbon is vulnerable under zero emissions.
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