Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 17, issue 4
Articles | Volume 17, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1081-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1081-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 4
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
13 Aug 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 13 Aug 2026

Catalogue of strong nonlinear surprises in ocean, sea-ice, and atmospheric variables in CMIP6

Joran R. Angevaare and Sybren S. Drijfhout

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Cited articles

Abbot, D. S., Huber, M., Bousquet, G., and Walker, C. C.: High-CO2 cloud radiative forcing feedback over both land and ocean in a global climate model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL036703, 2009. a
Angevaare, J. R.: JoranAngevaare/optim_esm_tools: v4.0.0, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15275185, 2025a. a, b, c, d
Angevaare, J. R. and Drijfhout, S. S.: JoranAngevaare/Catalogue-of-Strong-Nonlinear- Surprises-in-ocean-sea-ice-and-atmospheric- variables-in-CMIP6, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17867115, 2025b. a, b, c, d, e
Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., and Lenton, T. M.: Exceeding 1.5 C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science, 377, eabn7950, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950, 2022. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i
Bathiany, S., Hidding, J., and Scheffer, M.: Edge detection reveals abrupt and extreme climate events, J. Climate, 33, 6399–6421, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0449.1, 2020. a
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Editorial statement
This paper provides important insights on possible abrupt shifts and state transitions under future climate change. The comprehensive catalogue presented in the paper spans changes in multiple components of the Earth system. These can have major impacts on both the climate system and other dependent systems, from ecosystems to society and the economy. The paper also makes the case for the possibility of Strong Nonlinear Surprises happening earlier than previously anticipated.
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Short summary
We present a first catalogue of abrupt changes/state transitions in ocean, sea-ice, and atmospheric variables in future Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate scenarios. We find many models that show Arctic sea-ice disappearance, North Atlantic winter mixed-layer collapse and/or subsequent transition of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to a weak state. We find more abrupt changes/state transitions than in previous work at lower global warming levels.
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