Catalogue of strong nonlinear surprises in ocean, sea-ice, and atmospheric variables in CMIP6

Angevaare, Joran R.; Drijfhout, Sybren S.

doi:10.5194/esd-17-1081-2026

Articles | Volume 17, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1081-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1081-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 17, issue 4

Research article

| Highlight paper

|

13 Aug 2026

Research article | Highlight paper |

| 13 Aug 2026

Catalogue of strong nonlinear surprises in ocean, sea-ice, and atmospheric variables in CMIP6

Joran R. Angevaare and Sybren S. Drijfhout

Data sets

Catalogue-of-Strong-Nonlinear-Surprises-in-ocean-sea-ice-and-atmospheric-variables-in-CMIP6 J. R. Angevaare and Sybren S. Drijfhout https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17867115

Model code and software

OptimESM Tools J. R. Angevaare https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15275185

Video abstract

Catalogue of Strong Nonlinear Surprises in ocean, sea-ice, and atmospheric variables in CMIP6 Joran Angevaare and Sybren Drijfhout https://doi.org/10.5446/73654

Editorial statement

This paper provides important insights on possible abrupt shifts and state transitions under future climate change. The comprehensive catalogue presented in the paper spans changes in multiple components of the Earth system. These can have major impacts on both the climate system and other dependent systems, from ecosystems to society and the economy. The paper also makes the case for the possibility of Strong Nonlinear Surprises happening earlier than previously anticipated.