Articles | Volume 16, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-317-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-317-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Towards robust community assessments of the Earth's climate sensitivity
Kate Marvel
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
Mark Webb
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Related authors
Kate Marvel, Benjamin Cook, Ensheng Weng, Ram Singh, and Edward Cook
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 12, 43–57, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-43-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-43-2026, 2026
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Using information derived from tree-rings, we reconstruct possible combinations of past temperatures and precipitation amounts. This lets us put current changes in context and shows, for example, that the 1930s were likely the driest decade on record in central Kansas, while the late 20th century was likely the wettest period on record in the North American southwest.
Kate Marvel, Benjamin Cook, Ensheng Weng, Ram Singh, and Edward Cook
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 12, 43–57, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-43-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-43-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Using information derived from tree-rings, we reconstruct possible combinations of past temperatures and precipitation amounts. This lets us put current changes in context and shows, for example, that the 1930s were likely the driest decade on record in central Kansas, while the late 20th century was likely the wettest period on record in the North American southwest.
Paulo Ceppi, Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo, Mark D. Zelinka, Timothy Andrews, Florent Brient, Robin Chadwick, Jonathan M. Gregory, Yen-Ting Hwang, Sarah M. Kang, Jennifer E. Kay, Thorsten Mauritsen, Tomoo Ogura, George Tselioudis, Masahiro Watanabe, Mark J. Webb, and Allison A. Wing
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-398, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-398, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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Clouds constitute a key uncertainty for climate change projections. The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) aims to address this challenge by evaluating and understanding clouds and their impacts on atmospheric circulation, precipitation, and climate sensitivity. The present paper describes the CFMIP experiment protocol for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7), and discusses the accompanying science questions and opportunities for progress.
Angeline G. Pendergrass, Michael P. Byrne, Oliver Watt-Meyer, Penelope Maher, and Mark J. Webb
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6365–6378, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6365-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6365-2024, 2024
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The width of the tropical rain belt affects many aspects of our climate, yet we do not understand what controls it. To better understand it, we present a method to change it in numerical model experiments. We show that the method works well in four different models. The behavior of the width is unexpectedly simple in some ways, such as how strong the winds are as it changes, but in other ways, it is more complicated, especially how temperature increases with carbon dioxide.
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Short summary
Climate sensitivity (S) to doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide has remained stubbornly uncertain for decades. Multiple lines of evidence can be used to constrain S, but any analysis relies on unavoidable subjective decisions. Here, we present a framework for combining the subjective judgments of multiple experts in a fair and robust way.
Climate sensitivity (S) to doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide has remained stubbornly uncertain...
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