Articles | Volume 16, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-317-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-317-2025
Research article
 | 
26 Feb 2025
Research article |  | 26 Feb 2025

Towards robust community assessments of the Earth's climate sensitivity

Kate Marvel and Mark Webb

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Cited articles

Albani, S. and Mahowald, N. M.: Paleodust insights into dust impacts on climate, J. Clim., 32, 7897–7913, 2019. a
Andrews, T., Gregory, J. M., Paynter, D., Silvers, L. G., Zhou, C., Mauritsen, T., Webb, M. J., Armour, K. C., Forster, P. M., and Titchner, H.: Accounting for changing temperature patterns increases historical estimates of climate sensitivity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 8490–8499, 2018. a
Annan, J. D. and Hargreaves, J. C.: A new global reconstruction of temperature changes at the Last Glacial Maximum, Clim. Past, 9, 367–376, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-367-2013, 2013. a, b, c
Annan, J. D., Hargreaves, J. C., and Mauritsen, T.: A new global surface temperature reconstruction for the Last Glacial Maximum, Clim. Past, 18, 1883–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1883-2022, 2022. a, b
Armour, K. C., Bitz, C. M., and Roe, G. H.: Time-varying climate sensitivity from regional feedbacks, J. Clim., 26, 4518–4534, 2013. a
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Short summary
Climate sensitivity (S) to doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide has remained stubbornly uncertain for decades. Multiple lines of evidence can be used to constrain S, but any analysis relies on unavoidable subjective decisions. Here, we present a framework for combining the subjective judgments of multiple experts in a fair and robust way.
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