Articles | Volume 16, issue 5 
            
                
                    
            
            
            https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1887-2025
                    © Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under 
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
                the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1887-2025
                    © Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under 
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
                the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Vegetation and fire regimes in the Neotropics over the last 21 000 years
Thomas Kenji Akabane
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
                                            
                                    
                                            Institute of Geosciences, University of São Paulo, Rua do Lago 562, 05508-080 São Paulo – SP, Brazil
                                        
                                    
                                            University of Bordeaux, CNRS, Bordeaux INP, EPOC, UMR 5805, 33600 Pessac, France
                                        
                                    Cristiano Mazur Chiessi
                                            School of Arts, Sciences and Humanities, University of São Paulo, Av. Arlindo Bettio 1000, 03828-000 São Paulo – SP, Brazil
                                        
                                    Paulo Eduardo De Oliveira
                                            Institute of Geosciences, University of São Paulo, Rua do Lago 562, 05508-080 São Paulo – SP, Brazil
                                        
                                    
                                            Keller Science Action Center, The Field Museum of Natural History, 1400 S. Lake Shore Drive, 60605, Chicago – IL, USA
                                        
                                    Jennifer Watling
                                            Museum of Archaeology and Ethnography, University of São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-070, Brazil
                                        
                                    Ana Carolina Carnaval
                                            Biology Department, City College of New York, New York, USA
                                        
                                    Vincent Hanquiez
                                            University of Bordeaux, CNRS, Bordeaux INP, EPOC, UMR 5805, 33600 Pessac, France
                                        
                                    Dailson José Bertassoli Jr.
                                            Institute of Geosciences, University of São Paulo, Rua do Lago 562, 05508-080 São Paulo – SP, Brazil
                                        
                                    Thaís Aparecida Silva
                                            Institute of Geosciences, University of São Paulo, Rua do Lago 562, 05508-080 São Paulo – SP, Brazil
                                        
                                    Marília H. Shimizu
                                            General Coordination of Earth Science, National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, Brazil
                                        
                                    Anne-Laure Daniau
                                            University of Bordeaux, CNRS, Bordeaux INP, EPOC, UMR 5805, 33600 Pessac, France
                                        
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                                    Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1611–1653, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025, 2025
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                                                In this work, we draw on palaeo-records, observations, and modelling studies to review tipping points in the ocean overturning circulations, monsoon systems, and global atmospheric circulations. We find indications for tipping in the ocean overturning circulations and the West African monsoon, with potentially severe impacts on the Earth system and humans. Tipping in the other considered systems is regarded as conceivable but is currently not sufficiently supported by evidence.
                                            
                                            
                                        Nico Wunderling, Anna S. von der Heydt, Yevgeny Aksenov, Stephen Barker, Robbin Bastiaansen, Victor Brovkin, Maura Brunetti, Victor Couplet, Thomas Kleinen, Caroline H. Lear, Johannes Lohmann, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Sacha Sinet, Didier Swingedouw, Ricarda Winkelmann, Pallavi Anand, Jonathan Barichivich, Sebastian Bathiany, Mara Baudena, John T. Bruun, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Helen K. Coxall, David Docquier, Jonathan F. Donges, Swinda K. J. Falkena, Ann Kristin Klose, David Obura, Juan Rocha, Stefanie Rynders, Norman Julius Steinert, and Matteo Willeit
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                                                This paper maps out the state-of-the-art literature on interactions between tipping elements relevant for current global warming pathways. We find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 °C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpasses 2.0 °C.
                                            
                                            
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                                                Stable isotope ratios of foraminiferal shells from deep-sea sediments preserve key information on the variability of ocean circulation and ice volume. We present the first global atlas of harmonized raw downcore oxygen and carbon isotope ratios of various planktonic and benthic foraminiferal species. The atlas is a foundation for the analyses of the history of Earth system components, for finding future coring sites, and for teaching marine stratigraphy and paleoceanography.
                                            
                                            
                                        Sandy P. Harrison, Roberto Villegas-Diaz, Esmeralda Cruz-Silva, Daniel Gallagher, David Kesner, Paul Lincoln, Yicheng Shen, Luke Sweeney, Daniele Colombaroli, Adam Ali, Chéïma Barhoumi, Yves Bergeron, Tatiana Blyakharchuk, Přemysl Bobek, Richard Bradshaw, Jennifer L. Clear, Sambor Czerwiński, Anne-Laure Daniau, John Dodson, Kevin J. Edwards, Mary E. Edwards, Angelica Feurdean, David Foster, Konrad Gajewski, Mariusz Gałka, Michelle Garneau, Thomas Giesecke, Graciela Gil Romera, Martin P. Girardin, Dana Hoefer, Kangyou Huang, Jun Inoue, Eva Jamrichová, Nauris Jasiunas, Wenying Jiang, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Monika Karpińska-Kołaczek, Piotr Kołaczek, Niina Kuosmanen, Mariusz Lamentowicz, Martin Lavoie, Fang Li, Jianyong Li, Olga Lisitsyna, José Antonio López-Sáez, Reyes Luelmo-Lautenschlaeger, Gabriel Magnan, Eniko Katalin Magyari, Alekss Maksims, Katarzyna Marcisz, Elena Marinova, Jenn Marlon, Scott Mensing, Joanna Miroslaw-Grabowska, Wyatt Oswald, Sebastián Pérez-Díaz, Ramón Pérez-Obiol, Sanna Piilo, Anneli Poska, Xiaoguang Qin, Cécile C. Remy, Pierre J. H. Richard, Sakari Salonen, Naoko Sasaki, Hieke Schneider, William Shotyk, Migle Stancikaite, Dace Šteinberga, Normunds Stivrins, Hikaru Takahara, Zhihai Tan, Liva Trasune, Charles E. Umbanhowar, Minna Väliranta, Jüri Vassiljev, Xiayun Xiao, Qinghai Xu, Xin Xu, Edyta Zawisza, Yan Zhao, Zheng Zhou, and Jordan Paillard
                                    Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1109–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1109-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1109-2022, 2022
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                                                We provide a new global data set of charcoal preserved in sediments that can be used to examine how fire regimes have changed during past millennia and to investigate what caused these changes. The individual records have been standardised, and new age models have been constructed to allow better comparison across sites. The data set contains 1681 records from 1477 sites worldwide.
                                            
                                            
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                Short summary
                    Vegetation and fire regimes have changed over the last 21 000 years. Here, we compile pollen and charcoal records from the Neotropics to assess tree cover and fire activity trajectories and identify their main controls. We found that landscapes were shaped by an interplay of temperature, atmospheric CO2, precipitation, vegetation-fire feedback, and human impacts. These drivers varied in importance across regions and time periods, leading to distinct responses under different boundary conditions.
                    Vegetation and fire regimes have changed over the last 21 000 years. Here, we compile pollen and...
                    
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