Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1779-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1779-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
A new biogeochemical modelling framework (FLaMe-v1.0) for lake methane emissions on the regional scale: development and application to the European domain
Manon Maisonnier
Department Geoscience, Environment and Society, Biogeochemistry and Modelling of the Earth System-BGEOSYS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
Department Geoscience, Environment and Society, Biogeochemistry and Modelling of the Earth System-BGEOSYS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
David Bastviken
Department of Thematic Studies – Environmental Change, Linköping University, Sweden
Sandra Arndt
Department Geoscience, Environment and Society, Biogeochemistry and Modelling of the Earth System-BGEOSYS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
iC3, Department of Geosciences, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromso
Ronny Lauerwald
Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE, AgroParisTech, UMR Ecosys, Palaiseau, France
Aidin Jabbari
Earth Sciences New Zealand, Christchurch, New Zealand
Goulven Gildas Laruelle
Department Geoscience, Environment and Society, Biogeochemistry and Modelling of the Earth System-BGEOSYS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
Murray D. MacKay
Science and Technology Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, M3H5T4, Canada
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
Wim Thiery
Department of Water and Climate, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Pierre Regnier
Department Geoscience, Environment and Society, Biogeochemistry and Modelling of the Earth System-BGEOSYS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
Related authors
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Chunjing Qiu, Matthew J. McGrath, Philippe Peylin, Glen P. Peters, Philippe Ciais, Rona L. Thompson, Aki Tsuruta, Dominik Brunner, Matthias Kuhnert, Bradley Matthews, Paul I. Palmer, Oksana Tarasova, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, David Bastviken, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Wilfried Winiwarter, Giuseppe Etiope, Tuula Aalto, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Vladislav Bastrikov, Antoine Berchet, Patrick Brockmann, Giancarlo Ciotoli, Giulia Conchedda, Monica Crippa, Frank Dentener, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Diego Guizzardi, Dirk Günther, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Massaer Kouyate, Adrian Leip, Antti Leppänen, Emanuele Lugato, Manon Maisonnier, Alistair J. Manning, Tiina Markkanen, Joe McNorton, Marilena Muntean, Gabriel D. Oreggioni, Prabir K. Patra, Lucia Perugini, Isabelle Pison, Maarit T. Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, Arjo J. Segers, Pete Smith, Efisio Solazzo, Hanqin Tian, Francesco N. Tubiello, Timo Vesala, Guido R. van der Werf, Chris Wilson, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1197–1268, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study updates the state-of-the-art scientific overview of CH4 and N2O emissions in the EU27 and UK in Petrescu et al. (2021a). Yearly updates are needed to improve the different respective approaches and to inform on the development of formal verification systems. It integrates the most recent emission inventories, process-based model and regional/global inversions, comparing them with UNFCCC national GHG inventories, in support to policy to facilitate real-time verification procedures.
Sibylle Boxho, Aubry Vanderstraeten, Nadine Mattielli, Goulven G. Laruelle, Aloys Bory, Paolo Gabrielli, and Steeve Bonneville
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5046, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5046, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first high-resolution, quantitative reconstruction of dust provenance in the EPICA Dome C ice core (33.7–2.9 ka BP) using rare earth elements. Dust was mainly sourced from Patagonia during glacial periods, shifting toward Australia, southern Africa, and the Puna-Altiplano after 14.5 ka BP due to sea-level rise and hydrological rearrangement in Patagonia. These changes also reflect major reorganizations of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation.
Anna-Maria Virkkala, Isabel Wargowsky, Judith Vogt, McKenzie A. Kuhn, Simran Madaan, Richard O'Keefe, Tiffany Windholz, Kyle A. Arndt, Brendan M. Rogers, Jennifer D. Watts, Kelcy Kent, Mathias Göckede, David Olefeldt, Gerard Rocher-Ros, Edward A. G. Schuur, David Bastviken, Kristoffer Aalstad, Kelly Aho, Joonatan Ala-Könni, Haley Alcock, Inge Althuizen, Christopher D. Arp, Jun Asanuma, Katrin Attermeyer, Mika Aurela, Sivakiruthika Balathandayuthabani, Alan Barr, Maialen Barret, Ochirbat Batkhishig, Christina Biasi, Mats P. Björkman, Andrew Black, Elena Blanc-Betes, Pascal Bodmer, Julia Boike, Abdullah Bolek, Frédéric Bouchard, Ingeborg Bussmann, Lea Cabrol, Eleonora Canfora, Sean Carey, Karel Castro-Morales, Namyi Chae, Andres Christen, Torben R. Christensen, Casper T. Christiansen, Housen Chu, Graham Clark, Francois Clayer, Patrick Crill, Christopher Cunada, Scott J. Davidson, Joshua F. Dean, Sigrid Dengel, Matteo Detto, Catherine Dieleman, Florent Domine, Egor Dyukarev, Colin Edgar, Bo Elberling, Craig A. Emmerton, Eugenie Euskirchen, Grant Falvo, Thomas Friborg, Michelle Garneau, Mariasilvia Giamberini, Mikhail V. Glagolev, Miquel A. Gonzalez-Meler, Gustaf Granath, Jón Guðmundsson, Konsta Happonen, Yoshinobu Harazono, Lorna Harris, Josh Hashemi, Nicholas Hasson, Janna Heerah, Liam Heffernan, Manuel Helbig, Warren Helgason, Michal Heliasz, Greg Henry, Geert Hensgens, Tetsuya Hiyama, Macall Hock, David Holl, Beth Holmes, Jutta Holst, Thomas Holst, Gabriel Hould-Gosselin, Elyn Humphreys, Jacqueline Hung, Jussi Huotari, Hiroki Ikawa, Danil V. Ilyasov, Mamoru Ishikawa, Go Iwahana, Hiroki Iwata, Marcin Antoni Jackowicz-Korczynski, Joachim Jansen, Järvi Järveoja, Vincent E. J. Jassey, Rasmus Jensen, Katharina Jentzsch, Robert G. Jespersen, Carl-Fredrik Johannesson, Chersity P. Jones, Anders Jonsson, Ji Young Jung, Sari Juutinen, Evan Kane, Jan Karlsson, Sergey Karsanaev, Kuno Kasak, Julia Kelly, Kasha Kempton, Marcus Klaus, George W. Kling, Natacha Kljun, Jacqueline Knutson, Hideki Kobayashi, John Kochendorfer, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Pasi Kolari, Mika Korkiakoski, Aino Korrensalo, Pirkko Kortelainen, Egle Koster, Kajar Koster, Ayumi Kotani, Praveena Krishnan, Juliya Kurbatova, Lars Kutzbach, Min Jung Kwon, Ethan D. Kyzivat, Jessica Lagroix, Theodore Langhorst, Elena Lapshina, Tuula Larmola, Klaus S. Larsen, Isabelle Laurion, Justin Ledman, Hanna Lee, A. Joshua Leffler, Lance Lesack, Anders Lindroth, David Lipson, Annalea Lohila, Efrén López-Blanco, Vincent L. St. Louis, Erik Lundin, Misha Luoto, Takashi Machimura, Marta Magnani, Avni Malhotra, Marja Maljanen, Ivan Mammarella, Elisa Männistö, Luca Belelli Marchesini, Phil Marsh, Pertti J. Martkainen, Maija E. Marushchak, Mikhail Mastepanov, Alex Mavrovic, Trofim Maximov, Christina Minions, Marco Montemayor, Tomoaki Morishita, Patrick Murphy, Daniel F. Nadeau, Erin Nicholls, Mats B. Nilsson, Anastasia Niyazova, Jenni Nordén, Koffi Dodji Noumonvi, Hannu Nykanen, Walter Oechel, Anne Ojala, Tomohiro Okadera, Sujan Pal, Alexey V. Panov, Tim Papakyriakou, Dario Papale, Sang-Jong Park, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Gilberto Pastorello, Mike Peacock, Matthias Peichl, Roman Petrov, Kyra St. Pierre, Norbert Pirk, Jessica Plein, Vilmantas Preskienis, Anatoly Prokushkin, Jukka Pumpanen, Hilary A. Rains, Niklas Rakos, Aleski Räsänen, Helena Rautakoski, Riika Rinnan, Janne Rinne, Adrian Rocha, Nigel Roulet, Alexandre Roy, Anna Rutgersson, Aleksandr F. Sabrekov, Torsten Sachs, Erik Sahlée, Alejandro Salazar, Henrique Oliveira Sawakuchi, Christopher Schulze, Roger Seco, Armando Sepulveda-Jauregui, Svetlana Serikova, Abbey Serrone, Hanna M. Silvennoinen, Sofie Sjogersten, June Skeeter, Jo Snöälv, Sebastian Sobek, Oliver Sonnentag, Emily H. Stanley, Maria Strack, Lena Strom, Patrick Sullivan, Ryan Sullivan, Anna Sytiuk, Torbern Tagesson, Pierre Taillardat, Julie Talbot, Suzanne E. Tank, Mario Tenuta, Irina Terenteva, Frederic Thalasso, Antoine Thiboult, Halldor Thorgeirsson, Fenix Garcia Tigreros, Margaret Torn, Amy Townsend-Small, Claire Treat, Alain Tremblay, Carlo Trotta, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Merritt Turetsky, Masahito Ueyama, Muhammad Umair, Aki Vähä, Lona van Delden, Maarten van Hardenbroek, Andrej Varlagin, Ruth K. Varner, Elena Veretennikova, Timo Vesala, Tarmo Virtanen, Carolina Voigt, Jorien E. Vonk, Robert Wagner, Katey Walter Anthony, Qinxue Wang, Masataka Watanabe, Hailey Webb, Jeffrey M. Welker, Andreas Westergaard-Nielsen, Sebastian Westermann, Jeffrey R. White, Christian Wille, Scott N. Williamson, Scott Zolkos, Donatella Zona, and Susan M. Natali
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-585, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-585, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
This dataset includes monthly measurements of carbon dioxide and methane exchange between land, water, and the atmosphere from over 1,000 sites in Arctic and boreal regions. It combines measurements from a variety of ecosystems, including wetlands, forests, tundra, lakes, and rivers, gathered by over 260 researchers from 1984–2024. This dataset can be used to improve and reduce uncertainty in carbon budgets in order to strengthen our understanding of climate feedbacks in a warming world.
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Darren Engwirda, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Donghui Xu, Chang Liao, Gautam Bisht, James J. Benedict, Tian Zhou, Mithun Deb, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3619–3639, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3619-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3619-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores how riverine and coastal flooding during hurricanes is influenced by the interaction of atmosphere, land, river, and ocean conditions. Using an advanced Earth system model, we simulate Hurricane Irene to evaluate how meteorological and hydrological uncertainties affect flood modeling. Our findings reveal the importance of a multi-component modeling system, how hydrological conditions play critical roles in flood modeling, and greater flood risks if multiple factors are present.
Seppe Lampe, Lukas Gudmundsson, Basil Kraft, Stijn Hantson, Douglas Kelley, Vincent Humphrey, Bertrand Le Saux, Emilio Chuvieco, and Wim Thiery
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3550, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3550, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce BuRNN, a model which estimates monthly burned area based on satellite observations and climate, vegetation, and socio-economic data using machine learning. BuRNN outperforms existing process-based fire models. However, the model tends to underestimate burned area in parts of Africa and Australia. We identify the extent of bare ground, the presence of grasses, and fire weather conditions (long periods of warm and dry weather) as key regional drivers of fire activity in BuRNN.
Zeli Tan, Donghui Xu, Sourav Taraphdar, Jiangqin Ma, Gautam Bisht, and L. Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 3833–3852, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3833-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3833-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Flow depth and velocity determine various river functions, but their high-resolution simulations are expensive. Here, we developed a downscaling approach that can provide fast and accurate estimation of high-resolution river hydrodynamics. The 84-fold acceleration achieved by the method makes reliable flood risk analysis that needs hundreds or thousands of model runs feasible. More importantly, it provides an opportunity to couple large-scale hydrodynamics with local processes in river models.
Ke Yu, Yang Su, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, Yi Xi, Haoran Xu, Xianglin Zhang, Nicolas Viovy, Amie Pickering, Marie Collard, and Daniel S. Goll
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1861, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1861, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Coupling crop and land surface models helps quantify the climate effects of agriculture, but lacks crop-specific management processes. We enhanced a land surface model with time-varying albedo from foliar yellowing and residue cover, improving the simulation of energy and water fluxes. Results show cooler surfaces and slightly wetter soils during residue cover, highlighting how managements improve climate mitigation and adaptation, advancing the development of climate-smart agriculture.
Lingbo Li, Hong-Yi Li, Guta Abeshu, Jinyun Tang, L. Ruby Leung, Chang Liao, Zeli Tan, Hanqin Tian, Peter Thornton, and Xiaojuan Yang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 2713–2733, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2713-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2713-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed new maps that reveal how organic carbon from soil leaches into headwater streams over the contiguous United States. We use advanced artificial intelligence techniques and a massive amount of data, including observations at over 2500 gauges and a wealth of climate and environmental information. The maps are a critical step in understanding and predicting how carbon moves through our environment, hence making them a useful tool for tackling climate challenges.
Minna Ma, Haicheng Zhang, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 841–867, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-841-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-841-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A new offline model (LSM_Nlateral_Off) was developed to simulate the lateral transfer of nitrogen from land to oceans through the river network, incorporating the decomposition of DON (dissolved organic N) and PON (particulate organic N) and denitrification of DIN (dissolved inorganic N) during fluvial transport. Evaluations using observational data indicate that the model reproduces observed rates and seasonal variations in water discharge and N flow well.
Derrick Muheki, Bas Vercruysse, Krishna Kumar Thirukokaranam Chandrasekar, Christophe Verbruggen, Julie M. Birkholz, Koen Hufkens, Hans Verbeeck, Pascal Boeckx, Seppe Lampe, Ed Hawkins, Peter Thorne, Dominique Kankonde Ntumba, Olivier Kapalay Moulasa, and Wim Thiery
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3779, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3779, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Archives worldwide host vast records of observed weather data crucial for understanding climate variability. However, most of these records are still in paper form, limiting their use. To address this, we developed MeteoSaver, an open-source tool, to transcribe these records to machine-readable format. Applied to ten handwritten temperature sheets, it achieved a median accuracy of 74%. This tool offers a promising solution to preserve records from archives and unlock historical weather insights.
Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Jacob Schewe, Matthias Mengel, Simon Treu, Christian Otto, Jan Volkholz, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Stefanie Heinicke, Colin Jones, Julia L. Blanchard, Cheryl S. Harrison, Colleen M. Petrik, Tyler D. Eddy, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Ryan Heneghan, Derek P. Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Matthias Büchner, Thomas Vogt, Dánnell Quesada Chacón, Kerry Emanuel, Chia-Ying Lee, Suzana J. Camargo, Jonas Jägermeyr, Sam Rabin, Jochen Klar, Iliusi D. Vega del Valle, Lisa Novak, Inga J. Sauer, Gitta Lasslop, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala, Noah Smith, Jinfeng Chang, Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton, Anne Gädeke, Fang Li, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Wim Thiery, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Robert Ladwig, Ana Isabel Ayala-Zamora, Matthew Forrest, Michel Bechtold, Robert Reinecke, Inge de Graaf, Jed O. Kaplan, Alexander Koch, and Matthieu Lengaigne
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2103, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the experiments and data sets necessary to run historic and future impact projections, and the underlying assumptions of future climate change as defined by the 3rd round of the ISIMIP Project (Inter-sectoral Impactmodel Intercomparison Project, isimip.org). ISIMIP provides a framework for cross-sectorally consistent climate impact simulations to contribute to a comprehensive and consistent picture of the world under different climate-change scenarios.
Marielle Saunois, Adrien Martinez, Benjamin Poulter, Zhen Zhang, Peter A. Raymond, Pierre Regnier, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Bousquet, Philippe Ciais, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Xin Lan, George H. Allen, David Bastviken, David J. Beerling, Dmitry A. Belikov, Donald R. Blake, Simona Castaldi, Monica Crippa, Bridget R. Deemer, Fraser Dennison, Giuseppe Etiope, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Meredith A. Holgerson, Peter O. Hopcroft, Gustaf Hugelius, Akihiko Ito, Atul K. Jain, Rajesh Janardanan, Matthew S. Johnson, Thomas Kleinen, Paul B. Krummel, Ronny Lauerwald, Tingting Li, Xiangyu Liu, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe R. Melton, Jens Mühle, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Shufen Pan, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Gerard Rocher-Ros, Judith A. Rosentreter, Motoki Sasakawa, Arjo Segers, Steven J. Smith, Emily H. Stanley, Joël Thanwerdas, Hanqin Tian, Aki Tsuruta, Francesco N. Tubiello, Thomas S. Weber, Guido R. van der Werf, Douglas E. J. Worthy, Yi Xi, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 1873–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1873-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1873-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Methane (CH4) is the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing after carbon dioxide (CO2). A consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists synthesise and update the budget of the sources and sinks of CH4. This edition benefits from important progress in estimating emissions from lakes and ponds, reservoirs, and streams and rivers. For the 2010s decade, global CH4 emissions are estimated at 575 Tg CH4 yr-1, including ~65 % from anthropogenic sources.
Suqi Guo, Felix Havermann, Steven J. De Hertog, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Thomas Raddatz, Hongmei Li, Wim Thiery, Quentin Lejeune, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, David Wårlind, Lars Nieradzik, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 631–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-631-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-631-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Land cover and land management changes (LCLMCs) can alter climate even in intact areas, causing carbon changes in remote areas. This study is the first to assess these effects, finding they substantially alter global carbon dynamics, changing terrestrial stocks by up to dozens of gigatonnes. These results are vital for scientific and policy assessments, given the expected role of LCLMCs in achieving the Paris Agreement's goal to limit global warming below 1.5 °C.
Hannes Müller Schmied, Simon Newland Gosling, Marlo Garnsworthy, Laura Müller, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Atiq Kainan Ahmed, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Julien Boulange, Peter Burek, Jinfeng Chang, He Chen, Lukas Gudmundsson, Manolis Grillakis, Luca Guillaumot, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Rohini Kumar, Guoyong Leng, Junguo Liu, Xingcai Liu, Inga Menke, Vimal Mishra, Yadu Pokhrel, Oldrich Rakovec, Luis Samaniego, Yusuke Satoh, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Mikhail Smilovic, Tobias Stacke, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Wim Thiery, Athanasios Tsilimigkras, Yoshihide Wada, Niko Wanders, and Tokuta Yokohata
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2409–2425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2409-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2409-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Global water models contribute to the evaluation of important natural and societal issues but are – as all models – simplified representation of reality. So, there are many ways to calculate the water fluxes and storages. This paper presents a visualization of 16 global water models using a standardized visualization and the pathway towards this common understanding. Next to academic education purposes, we envisage that these diagrams will help researchers, model developers, and data users.
Cristina Deidda, Arpita Khanna, Wolfgang Schade, and Wim Thiery
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1697, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1697, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Climate extremes like floods, heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires are disrupting Europe’s transport. This study combines a review of past events and future projections to assess current losses and the future exposure of transport infrastructure. Exposure to extremes is projected to rise, but lower emissions can reduce it. Urgent action is needed to adapt the Trans-European Transport Network to a changing climate.
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Sabin I. Taranu, David M. Lawrence, Yoshihide Wada, Ting Tang, Erik Kluzek, Sam Rabin, Yi Yao, Steven J. De Hertog, Inne Vanderkelen, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7365–7399, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7365-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7365-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we improved a climate model by adding the representation of water use sectors such as domestic, industry, and agriculture. This new feature helps us understand how water is used and supplied in various areas. We tested our model from 1971 to 2010 and found that it accurately identifies areas with water scarcity. By modelling the competition between sectors when water availability is limited, the model helps estimate the intensity and extent of individual sectors' water shortages.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Glen P. Peters, Richard Engelen, Sander Houweling, Dominik Brunner, Aki Tsuruta, Bradley Matthews, Prabir K. Patra, Dmitry Belikov, Rona L. Thompson, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Wenxin Zhang, Arjo J. Segers, Giuseppe Etiope, Giancarlo Ciotoli, Philippe Peylin, Frédéric Chevallier, Tuula Aalto, Robbie M. Andrew, David Bastviken, Antoine Berchet, Grégoire Broquet, Giulia Conchedda, Stijn N. C. Dellaert, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Johannes Gütschow, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Ronny Lauerwald, Tiina Markkanen, Jacob C. A. van Peet, Isabelle Pison, Pierre Regnier, Espen Solum, Marko Scholze, Maria Tenkanen, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, and John R. Worden
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 4325–4350, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4325-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4325-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of data availability from observation- and inventory-based CH4 emission estimates. It systematically compares them and provides recommendations for robust comparisons, aiming to steadily engage more parties in using observational methods to complement their UNFCCC submissions. Anticipating improvements in atmospheric modelling and observations, future developments need to resolve knowledge gaps in both approaches and to better quantify remaining uncertainty.
Thi Lan Anh Dinh, Daniel Goll, Philippe Ciais, and Ronny Lauerwald
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6725–6744, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6725-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6725-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study assesses the performance of the dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) ORCHIDEE in capturing the impact of land-use change on carbon stocks across Europe. Comparisons with observations reveal that the model accurately represents carbon fluxes and stocks. Despite the underestimations in certain land-use conversions, the model describes general trends in soil carbon response to land-use change, aligning with the site observations.
Hanqin Tian, Naiqing Pan, Rona L. Thompson, Josep G. Canadell, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Pierre Regnier, Eric A. Davidson, Michael Prather, Philippe Ciais, Marilena Muntean, Shufen Pan, Wilfried Winiwarter, Sönke Zaehle, Feng Zhou, Robert B. Jackson, Hermann W. Bange, Sarah Berthet, Zihao Bian, Daniele Bianchi, Alexander F. Bouwman, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Geoffrey Dutton, Minpeng Hu, Akihiko Ito, Atul K. Jain, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Paul B. Krummel, Xin Lan, Angela Landolfi, Ronny Lauerwald, Ya Li, Chaoqun Lu, Taylor Maavara, Manfredi Manizza, Dylan B. Millet, Jens Mühle, Prabir K. Patra, Glen P. Peters, Xiaoyu Qin, Peter Raymond, Laure Resplandy, Judith A. Rosentreter, Hao Shi, Qing Sun, Daniele Tonina, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Junjie Wang, Kelley C. Wells, Luke M. Western, Chris Wilson, Jia Yang, Yuanzhi Yao, Yongfa You, and Qing Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2543–2604, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide (N2O), a greenhouse gas 273 times more potent than carbon dioxide, have increased by 25 % since the preindustrial period, with the highest observed growth rate in 2020 and 2021. This rapid growth rate has primarily been due to a 40 % increase in anthropogenic emissions since 1980. Observed atmospheric N2O concentrations in recent years have exceeded the worst-case climate scenario, underscoring the importance of reducing anthropogenic N2O emissions.
Derrick Muheki, Axel A. J. Deijns, Emanuele Bevacqua, Gabriele Messori, Jakob Zscheischler, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 429–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-429-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change affects the interaction, dependence, and joint occurrence of climate extremes. Here we investigate the joint occurrence of pairs of river floods, droughts, heatwaves, crop failures, wildfires, and tropical cyclones in East Africa under past and future climate conditions. Our results show that, across all future warming scenarios, the frequency and spatial extent of these co-occurring extremes will increase in this region, particularly in areas close to the Nile and Congo rivers.
Steven J. De Hertog, Carmen E. Lopez-Fabara, Ruud van der Ent, Jessica Keune, Diego G. Miralles, Raphael Portmann, Sebastian Schemm, Felix Havermann, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 265–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-265-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in land use are crucial to achieve lower global warming. However, despite their importance, the effects of these changes on moisture fluxes are poorly understood. We analyse land cover and management scenarios in three climate models involving cropland expansion, afforestation, and irrigation. Results show largely consistent influences on moisture fluxes, with cropland expansion causing a drying and reduced local moisture recycling, while afforestation and irrigation show the opposite.
Rosa Pietroiusti, Inne Vanderkelen, Friederike E. L. Otto, Clair Barnes, Lucy Temple, Mary Akurut, Philippe Bally, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 225–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy rainfall in eastern Africa between late 2019 and mid 2020 caused devastating floods and landslides and drove the levels of Lake Victoria to a record-breaking maximum in May 2020. In this study, we characterize the spatial extent and impacts of the floods in the Lake Victoria basin and investigate how human-induced climate change influenced the probability and intensity of the record-breaking lake levels and flooding by applying a multi-model extreme event attribution methodology.
Donghui Xu, Gautam Bisht, Zeli Tan, Chang Liao, Tian Zhou, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1197–1215, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1197-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1197-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We aim to disentangle the hydrological and hydraulic controls on streamflow variability in a fully coupled earth system model. We found that calibrating only one process (i.e., traditional calibration procedure) will result in unrealistic parameter values and poor performance of the water cycle, while the simulated streamflow is improved. To address this issue, we further proposed a two-step calibration procedure to reconcile the impacts from hydrological and hydraulic processes on streamflow.
Alizée Roobaert, Pierre Regnier, Peter Landschützer, and Goulven G. Laruelle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 421–441, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-421-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-421-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The quantification of the coastal air–sea CO2 exchange (FCO2) has improved in recent years, but its multiannual variability remains unclear. This study, based on interpolated observations, reconstructs the longest global time series of coastal FCO2 (1982–2020). Results show the coastal ocean acts as a CO2 sink, with increasing intensity over time. This new coastal FCO2-product allows establishing regional carbon budgets and provides new constraints for closing the global carbon cycle.
Celray James Chawanda, Albert Nkwasa, Wim Thiery, and Ann van Griensven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 117–138, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Africa's water resources are being negatively impacted by climate change and land-use change. The SWAT+ hydrological model was used to simulate the hydrological cycle in Africa, and results show likely decreases in river flows in the Zambezi and Congo rivers and highest flows in the Niger River basins due to climate change. Land cover change had the biggest impact in the Congo River basin, emphasizing the importance of including land-use change in studies.
Katja Frieler, Jan Volkholz, Stefan Lange, Jacob Schewe, Matthias Mengel, María del Rocío Rivas López, Christian Otto, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Johanna T. Malle, Simon Treu, Christoph Menz, Julia L. Blanchard, Cheryl S. Harrison, Colleen M. Petrik, Tyler D. Eddy, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Yannick Rousseau, Reg A. Watson, Charles Stock, Xiao Liu, Ryan Heneghan, Derek Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Matthias Büchner, Thomas Vogt, Tingting Wang, Fubao Sun, Inga J. Sauer, Johannes Koch, Inne Vanderkelen, Jonas Jägermeyr, Christoph Müller, Sam Rabin, Jochen Klar, Iliusi D. Vega del Valle, Gitta Lasslop, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala, Noah Smith, Jinfeng Chang, Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton, Anne Gädeke, Fang Li, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fred Hattermann, Jida Wang, Fangfang Yao, Thomas Hickler, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Wim Thiery, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Robert Ladwig, Ana Isabel Ayala-Zamora, Matthew Forrest, and Michel Bechtold
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper provides an overview of all observational climate-related and socioeconomic forcing data used as input for the impact model evaluation and impact attribution experiments within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. The experiments are designed to test our understanding of observed changes in natural and human systems and to quantify to what degree these changes have already been induced by climate change.
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Donghui Xu, and L. Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3911–3934, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3911-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3911-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the flood risks concurrently induced by river flooding and coastal storm surge along the coast of the contiguous United States using statistical and numerical models. We reveal a few hotspots of such risks, the critical spatial variabilities within a river basin and over the whole US coast, and the uncertainties of the risk assessment. We highlight the importance of weighing different risk measures to avoid underestimating or exaggerating the compound flood impacts.
Matthew J. McGrath, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Philippe Peylin, Robbie M. Andrew, Bradley Matthews, Frank Dentener, Juraj Balkovič, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Gregoire Broquet, Philippe Ciais, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Giacomo Grassi, Ian Harris, Matthew Jones, Jürgen Knauer, Matthias Kuhnert, Guillaume Monteil, Saqr Munassar, Paul I. Palmer, Glen P. Peters, Chunjing Qiu, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Oksana Tarasova, Matteo Vizzarri, Karina Winkler, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Antoine Berchet, Peter Briggs, Patrick Brockmann, Frédéric Chevallier, Giulia Conchedda, Monica Crippa, Stijn N. C. Dellaert, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, Sara Filipek, Pierre Friedlingstein, Richard Fuchs, Michael Gauss, Christoph Gerbig, Diego Guizzardi, Dirk Günther, Richard A. Houghton, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Ronny Lauerwald, Bas Lerink, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Géraud Moulas, Marilena Muntean, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Aurélie Paquirissamy, Lucia Perugini, Wouter Peters, Roberto Pilli, Julia Pongratz, Pierre Regnier, Marko Scholze, Yusuf Serengil, Pete Smith, Efisio Solazzo, Rona L. Thompson, Francesco N. Tubiello, Timo Vesala, and Sophia Walther
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4295–4370, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate estimation of fluxes of carbon dioxide from the land surface is essential for understanding future impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the climate system. A wide variety of methods currently exist to estimate these sources and sinks. We are continuing work to develop annual comparisons of these diverse methods in order to clarify what they all actually calculate and to resolve apparent disagreement, in addition to highlighting opportunities for increased understanding.
Jason Neil Steven Cole, Knut von Salzen, Jiangnan Li, John Scinocca, David Plummer, Vivek Arora, Norman McFarlane, Michael Lazare, Murray MacKay, and Diana Verseghy
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5427–5448, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5427-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Canadian Atmospheric Model version 5 (CanAM5) is used to simulate on a global scale the climate of Earth's atmosphere, land, and lakes. We document changes to the physics in CanAM5 since the last major version of the model (CanAM4) and evaluate the climate simulated relative to observations and CanAM4. The climate simulated by CanAM5 is similar to CanAM4, but there are improvements, including better simulation of temperature and precipitation over the Amazon and better simulation of cloud.
Shruti Nath, Lukas Gudmundsson, Jonas Schwaab, Gregory Duveiller, Steven J. De Hertog, Suqi Guo, Felix Havermann, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Julia Pongratz, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Carl F. Schleussner, Wim Thiery, and Quentin Lejeune
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4283–4313, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4283-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tree cover changes play a significant role in climate mitigation and adaptation. Their regional impacts are key in informing national-level decisions and prioritising areas for conservation efforts. We present a first step towards exploring these regional impacts using a simple statistical device, i.e. emulator. The emulator only needs to train on climate model outputs representing the maximal impacts of aff-, re-, and deforestation, from which it explores plausible in-between outcomes itself.
Sinan Xu, Bo Liu, Sandra Arndt, Sabine Kasten, and Zijun Wu
Biogeosciences, 20, 2251–2263, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use a reactive continuum model based on a lognormal distribution (l-RCM) to inversely determine model parameters μ and σ at 123 sites across the global ocean. Our results show organic matter (OM) reactivity is more than 3 orders of magnitude higher in shelf than in abyssal regions. In addition, OM reactivity is higher than predicted in some specific regions, yet the l-RCM can still capture OM reactivity features in these regions.
Steven J. De Hertog, Felix Havermann, Inne Vanderkelen, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Dim Coumou, Edouard L. Davin, Gregory Duveiller, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 629–667, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-629-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-629-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Land cover and land management changes are important strategies for future land-based mitigation. We investigate the climate effects of cropland expansion, afforestation, irrigation and wood harvesting using three Earth system models. Results show that these have important implications for surface temperature where the land cover and/or management change occur and in remote areas. Idealized afforestation causes global warming, which might offset the cooling effect from enhanced carbon uptake.
Steven J. De Hertog, Carmen E. Lopez-Fabara, Ruud van der Ent, Jessica Keune, Diego G. Miralles, Raphael Portmann, Sebastian Schemm, Felix Havermann, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-953, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-953, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Land cover and management changes can affect the climate and water availability. In this study we use climate model simulations of extreme global land cover changes (afforestation, deforestation) and land management changes (irrigation) to understand the effects on the global water cycle and local to continental water availability. We show that cropland expansion generally leads to higher evaporation and lower amounts of precipitation and afforestation and irrigation expansion to the opposite.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Almudena García-García, Gerhard Krinner, Moritz Langer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Jan Nitzbon, Jian Peng, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Wim Thiery, Inne Vanderkelen, and Tonghua Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 609–627, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is caused by the accumulated heat in the Earth system, with the land storing the second largest amount of this extra heat. Here, new estimates of continental heat storage are obtained, including changes in inland-water heat storage and permafrost heat storage in addition to changes in ground heat storage. We also argue that heat gains in all three components should be monitored independently of their magnitude due to heat-dependent processes affecting society and ecosystems.
Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Minière, Flora Gues, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Gottfried Kirchengast, Susheel Adusumilli, Fiammetta Straneo, Michaël Ablain, Richard P. Allan, Paul M. Barker, Hugo Beltrami, Alejandro Blazquez, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Damien Desbruyeres, Han Dolman, Catia M. Domingues, Almudena García-García, Donata Giglio, John E. Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Maria Z. Hakuba, Stefan Hendricks, Shigeki Hosoda, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian King, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Anton Korosov, Gerhard Krinner, Mikael Kuusela, Felix W. Landerer, Moritz Langer, Thomas Lavergne, Isobel Lawrence, Yuehua Li, John Lyman, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Trevor McDougall, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Jan Nitzbon, Inès Otosaka, Jian Peng, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Kanako Sato, Katsunari Sato, Abhishek Savita, Axel Schweiger, Andrew Shepherd, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Leon Simons, Donald A. Slater, Thomas Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Toshio Suga, Tanguy Szekely, Wim Thiery, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Inne Vanderkelen, Susan E. Wjiffels, Tonghua Wu, and Michael Zemp
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1675–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Earth's climate is out of energy balance, and this study quantifies how much heat has consequently accumulated over the past decades (ocean: 89 %, land: 6 %, cryosphere: 4 %, atmosphere: 1 %). Since 1971, this accumulated heat reached record values at an increasing pace. The Earth heat inventory provides a comprehensive view on the status and expectation of global warming, and we call for an implementation of this global climate indicator into the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Chunjing Qiu, Matthew J. McGrath, Philippe Peylin, Glen P. Peters, Philippe Ciais, Rona L. Thompson, Aki Tsuruta, Dominik Brunner, Matthias Kuhnert, Bradley Matthews, Paul I. Palmer, Oksana Tarasova, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, David Bastviken, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Wilfried Winiwarter, Giuseppe Etiope, Tuula Aalto, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Vladislav Bastrikov, Antoine Berchet, Patrick Brockmann, Giancarlo Ciotoli, Giulia Conchedda, Monica Crippa, Frank Dentener, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Diego Guizzardi, Dirk Günther, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Massaer Kouyate, Adrian Leip, Antti Leppänen, Emanuele Lugato, Manon Maisonnier, Alistair J. Manning, Tiina Markkanen, Joe McNorton, Marilena Muntean, Gabriel D. Oreggioni, Prabir K. Patra, Lucia Perugini, Isabelle Pison, Maarit T. Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, Arjo J. Segers, Pete Smith, Efisio Solazzo, Hanqin Tian, Francesco N. Tubiello, Timo Vesala, Guido R. van der Werf, Chris Wilson, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1197–1268, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study updates the state-of-the-art scientific overview of CH4 and N2O emissions in the EU27 and UK in Petrescu et al. (2021a). Yearly updates are needed to improve the different respective approaches and to inform on the development of formal verification systems. It integrates the most recent emission inventories, process-based model and regional/global inversions, comparing them with UNFCCC national GHG inventories, in support to policy to facilitate real-time verification procedures.
Axel A. J. Deijns, Olivier Dewitte, Wim Thiery, Nicolas d'Oreye, Jean-Philippe Malet, and François Kervyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3679–3700, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3679-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3679-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides and flash floods are rainfall-induced processes that often co-occur and interact, generally very quickly. In mountainous cloud-covered environments, determining when these processes occur remains challenging. We propose a regional methodology using open-access satellite radar images that allow for the timing of landslide and flash floods events, in the contrasting landscapes of tropical Africa, with an accuracy of up to a few days. The methodology shows potential for transferability.
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Darren Engwirda, Chang Liao, Donghui Xu, Gautam Bisht, Tian Zhou, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5473–5491, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5473-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5473-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sea level rise, storm surge and river discharge can cause coastal backwater effects in downstream sections of rivers, creating critical flood risks. This study simulates the backwater effects using a large-scale river model on a coastal-refined computational mesh. By decomposing the backwater drivers, we revealed their relative importance and long-term variations. Our analysis highlights the increasing strength of backwater effects due to sea level rise and more frequent storm surge.
Steven J. De Hertog, Felix Havermann, Inne Vanderkelen, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Dim Coumou, Edouard L. Davin, Gregory Duveiller, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1305–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Land cover and land management changes are important strategies for future land-based mitigation. We investigate the climate effects of cropland expansion, afforestation, irrigation, and wood harvesting using three Earth system models. Results show that these have important implications for surface temperature where the land cover and/or management change occurs and in remote areas. Idealized afforestation causes global warming, which might offset the cooling effect from enhanced carbon uptake.
Haicheng Zhang, Ronny Lauerwald, Pierre Regnier, Philippe Ciais, Kristof Van Oost, Victoria Naipal, Bertrand Guenet, and Wenping Yuan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1119–1144, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1119-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1119-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a land surface model which can simulate the complete lateral transfer of sediment and carbon from land to ocean through rivers. Our model captures the water, sediment, and organic carbon discharges in European rivers well. Application of our model in Europe indicates that lateral carbon transfer can strongly change regional land carbon budgets by affecting organic carbon distribution and soil moisture.
James P. J. Ward, Katharine R. Hendry, Sandra Arndt, Johan C. Faust, Felipe S. Freitas, Sian F. Henley, Jeffrey W. Krause, Christian März, Allyson C. Tessin, and Ruth L. Airs
Biogeosciences, 19, 3445–3467, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3445-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3445-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The seafloor plays an important role in the cycling of silicon (Si), a key nutrient that promotes marine primary productivity. In our model study, we disentangle major controls on the seafloor Si cycle to better anticipate the impacts of continued warming and sea ice melt in the Barents Sea. We uncover a coupling of the iron redox and Si cycles, dissolution of lithogenic silicates, and authigenic clay formation, comprising a Si sink that could have implications for the Arctic Ocean Si budget.
Louise Busschaert, Shannon de Roos, Wim Thiery, Dirk Raes, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3731–3752, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3731-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3731-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Increasing amounts of water are used for agriculture. Therefore, we looked into how irrigation requirements will evolve under a changing climate over Europe. Our results show that, by the end of the century and under high emissions, irrigation water will increase by 30 % on average compared to the year 2000. Also, the irrigation requirement is likely to vary more from 1 year to another. However, if emissions are mitigated, these effects are reduced.
Malgorzata Golub, Wim Thiery, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Inne Vanderkelen, Daniel Mercado-Bettin, R. Iestyn Woolway, Luke Grant, Eleanor Jennings, Benjamin M. Kraemer, Jacob Schewe, Fang Zhao, Katja Frieler, Matthias Mengel, Vasiliy Y. Bogomolov, Damien Bouffard, Marianne Côté, Raoul-Marie Couture, Andrey V. Debolskiy, Bram Droppers, Gideon Gal, Mingyang Guo, Annette B. G. Janssen, Georgiy Kirillin, Robert Ladwig, Madeline Magee, Tadhg Moore, Marjorie Perroud, Sebastiano Piccolroaz, Love Raaman Vinnaa, Martin Schmid, Tom Shatwell, Victor M. Stepanenko, Zeli Tan, Bronwyn Woodward, Huaxia Yao, Rita Adrian, Mathew Allan, Orlane Anneville, Lauri Arvola, Karen Atkins, Leon Boegman, Cayelan Carey, Kyle Christianson, Elvira de Eyto, Curtis DeGasperi, Maria Grechushnikova, Josef Hejzlar, Klaus Joehnk, Ian D. Jones, Alo Laas, Eleanor B. Mackay, Ivan Mammarella, Hampus Markensten, Chris McBride, Deniz Özkundakci, Miguel Potes, Karsten Rinke, Dale Robertson, James A. Rusak, Rui Salgado, Leon van der Linden, Piet Verburg, Danielle Wain, Nicole K. Ward, Sabine Wollrab, and Galina Zdorovennova
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4597–4623, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. To better understand how lakes are changing and to project their future behavior amidst various sources of uncertainty, simulations with a range of lake models are required. This in turn requires international coordination across different lake modelling teams worldwide. Here we present a protocol for and results from coordinated simulations of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide.
Inne Vanderkelen, Shervan Gharari, Naoki Mizukami, Martyn P. Clark, David M. Lawrence, Sean Swenson, Yadu Pokhrel, Naota Hanasaki, Ann van Griensven, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4163–4192, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4163-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4163-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Human-controlled reservoirs have a large influence on the global water cycle. However, dam operations are rarely represented in Earth system models. We implement and evaluate a widely used reservoir parametrization in a global river-routing model. Using observations of individual reservoirs, the reservoir scheme outperforms the natural lake scheme. However, both schemes show a similar performance due to biases in runoff timing and magnitude when using simulated runoff.
Zhu Deng, Philippe Ciais, Zitely A. Tzompa-Sosa, Marielle Saunois, Chunjing Qiu, Chang Tan, Taochun Sun, Piyu Ke, Yanan Cui, Katsumasa Tanaka, Xin Lin, Rona L. Thompson, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao, Yuanyuan Huang, Ronny Lauerwald, Atul K. Jain, Xiaoming Xu, Ana Bastos, Stephen Sitch, Paul I. Palmer, Thomas Lauvaux, Alexandre d'Aspremont, Clément Giron, Antoine Benoit, Benjamin Poulter, Jinfeng Chang, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Steven J. Davis, Zhu Liu, Giacomo Grassi, Clément Albergel, Francesco N. Tubiello, Lucia Perugini, Wouter Peters, and Frédéric Chevallier
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1639–1675, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1639-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1639-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In support of the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement on climate change, we proposed a method for reconciling the results of global atmospheric inversions with data from UNFCCC national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs). Here, based on a new global harmonized database that we compiled from the UNFCCC NGHGIs and a comprehensive framework presented in this study to process the results of inversions, we compared their results of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O).
Jinshi Jian, Xuan Du, Juying Jiao, Xiaohua Ren, Karl Auerswald, Ryan Stewart, Zeli Tan, Jianlin Zhao, Daniel L. Evans, Guangju Zhao, Nufang Fang, Wenyi Sun, Chao Yue, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-87, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-87, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Field soil loss and sediment yield due to surface runoff observations were compiled into a database named AWESOME: Archive for Water Erosion and Sediment Outflow MEasurements. Annual soil erosion data from 1985 geographic sites and 75 countries have been compiled into AWESOME. This database aims to be an open framework for the scientific community to share field-based annual soil erosion measurements, enabling better understanding of the spatial and temporal variability of annual soil erosion.
Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Hong-Yi Li, Zhenduo Zhu, Zeli Tan, and L. Ruby Leung
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 929–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-929-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-929-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Existing riverbed sediment particle size data are sparsely available at individual sites. We develop a continuous map of median riverbed sediment particle size over the contiguous US corresponding to millions of river segments based on the existing observations and machine learning methods. This map is useful for research in large-scale river sediment using model- and data-driven approaches, teaching environmental and earth system sciences, planning and managing floodplain zones, etc.
Aine M. Gormley-Gallagher, Sebastian Sterl, Annette L. Hirsch, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Edouard L. Davin, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 419–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-419-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-419-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our results show that agricultural management can impact the local climate and highlight the need to evaluate land management in climate models. We use regression analysis on climate simulations and observations to assess irrigation and conservation agriculture impacts on warming trends. This allowed us to distinguish between the effects of land management and large-scale climate forcings such as rising CO2 concentrations and thus gain insight into the impacts under different climate regimes.
Céline Gommet, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, Haicheng Zhang, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 393–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-393-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-393-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) leaching from soils into river networks is an important component of the land carbon (C) budget, but its spatiotemporal variation is not yet fully constrained. We use a land surface model to simulate the present-day land C budget at the European scale, including leaching of DOC from the soil. We found average leaching of 14.3 Tg C yr−1 (0.6 % of terrestrial net primary production) with seasonal variations. We determine runoff and temperature to be the main drivers.
Xi Wei, Josette Garnier, Vincent Thieu, Paul Passy, Romain Le Gendre, Gilles Billen, Maia Akopian, and Goulven Gildas Laruelle
Biogeosciences, 19, 931–955, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-931-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-931-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Estuaries are key reactive ecosystems along the land–ocean aquatic continuum and are often strongly impacted by anthropogenic activities. We calculated nutrient in and out fluxes by using a 1-D transient model for seven estuaries along the French Atlantic coast. Among these, large estuaries with high residence times showed higher retention rates than medium and small ones. All reveal coastal eutrophication due to the excess of diffused nitrogen from intensive agricultural river basins.
Hong-Yi Li, Zeli Tan, Hongbo Ma, Zhenduo Zhu, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Senlin Zhu, Sagy Cohen, Tian Zhou, Donghui Xu, and L. Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 665–688, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-665-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-665-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new multi-process river sediment module for Earth system models. Application and validation over the contiguous US indicate a satisfactory model performance over large river systems, including those heavily regulated by reservoirs. This new sediment module enables future modeling of the transportation and transformation of carbon and nutrients carried by the fine sediment along the river–ocean continuum to close the global carbon and nutrient cycles.
Alizée Roobaert, Laure Resplandy, Goulven G. Laruelle, Enhui Liao, and Pierre Regnier
Ocean Sci., 18, 67–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-67-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-67-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses a global oceanic model to investigate the seasonal dynamics of the sea surface partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) in the global coastal ocean. Our method quantifies the respective effects of thermal changes, biological activity, ocean circulation and freshwater fluxes on the temporal pCO2 variations. The performance of our model is also evaluated against a data product derived from observations to identify coastal regions where our approach is most robust.
Philip Pika, Dominik Hülse, and Sandra Arndt
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7155–7174, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7155-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7155-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
OMEN-SED is a model for early diagenesis in marine sediments simulating organic matter (OM) degradation and nutrient dynamics. We replaced the original description with a more realistic one accounting for the widely observed decrease in OM reactivity. The new model reproduces pore water profiles and sediment–water interface fluxes across different environments. This functionality extends the model’s applicability to a broad range of environments and timescales while requiring fewer parameters.
David Olefeldt, Mikael Hovemyr, McKenzie A. Kuhn, David Bastviken, Theodore J. Bohn, John Connolly, Patrick Crill, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Sarah A. Finkelstein, Hélène Genet, Guido Grosse, Lorna I. Harris, Liam Heffernan, Manuel Helbig, Gustaf Hugelius, Ryan Hutchins, Sari Juutinen, Mark J. Lara, Avni Malhotra, Kristen Manies, A. David McGuire, Susan M. Natali, Jonathan A. O'Donnell, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Aleksi Räsänen, Christina Schädel, Oliver Sonnentag, Maria Strack, Suzanne E. Tank, Claire Treat, Ruth K. Varner, Tarmo Virtanen, Rebecca K. Warren, and Jennifer D. Watts
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5127–5149, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5127-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5127-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Wetlands, lakes, and rivers are important sources of the greenhouse gas methane to the atmosphere. To understand current and future methane emissions from northern regions, we need maps that show the extent and distribution of specific types of wetlands, lakes, and rivers. The Boreal–Arctic Wetland and Lake Dataset (BAWLD) provides maps of five wetland types, seven lake types, and three river types for northern regions and will improve our ability to predict future methane emissions.
McKenzie A. Kuhn, Ruth K. Varner, David Bastviken, Patrick Crill, Sally MacIntyre, Merritt Turetsky, Katey Walter Anthony, Anthony D. McGuire, and David Olefeldt
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5151–5189, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5151-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5151-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Methane (CH4) emissions from the boreal–Arctic region are globally significant, but the current magnitude of annual emissions is not well defined. Here we present a dataset of surface CH4 fluxes from northern wetlands, lakes, and uplands that was built alongside a compatible land cover dataset, sharing the same classifications. We show CH4 fluxes can be split by broad land cover characteristics. The dataset is useful for comparison against new field data and model parameterization or validation.
Amanda R. Fay, Luke Gregor, Peter Landschützer, Galen A. McKinley, Nicolas Gruber, Marion Gehlen, Yosuke Iida, Goulven G. Laruelle, Christian Rödenbeck, Alizée Roobaert, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4693–4710, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4693-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4693-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The movement of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to the ocean is estimated using surface ocean carbon (pCO2) measurements and an equation including variables such as temperature and wind speed; the choices of these variables lead to uncertainties. We introduce the SeaFlux ensemble which provides carbon flux maps calculated in a consistent manner, thus reducing uncertainty by using common choices for wind speed and a set definition of "global" coverage.
Silje Lund Sørland, Roman Brogli, Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Emmanuele Russo, Jonas Van de Walle, Bodo Ahrens, Ivonne Anders, Edoardo Bucchignani, Edouard L. Davin, Marie-Estelle Demory, Alessandro Dosio, Hendrik Feldmann, Barbara Früh, Beate Geyer, Klaus Keuler, Donghyun Lee, Delei Li, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Seung-Ki Min, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Burkhardt Rockel, Christoph Schär, Christian Steger, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5125–5154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We review the contribution from the CLM-Community to regional climate projections following the CORDEX framework over Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia, and Africa. How the model configuration, horizontal and vertical resolutions, and choice of driving data influence the model results for the five domains is assessed, with the purpose of aiding the planning and design of regional climate simulations in the future.
Felipe S. Freitas, Philip A. Pika, Sabine Kasten, Bo B. Jørgensen, Jens Rassmann, Christophe Rabouille, Shaun Thomas, Henrik Sass, Richard D. Pancost, and Sandra Arndt
Biogeosciences, 18, 4651–4679, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4651-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4651-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
It remains challenging to fully understand what controls carbon burial in marine sediments globally. Thus, we use a model–data approach to identify patterns of organic matter reactivity at the seafloor across distinct environmental conditions. Our findings support the notion that organic matter reactivity is a dynamic ecosystem property and strongly influences biogeochemical cycling and exchange. Our results are essential to improve predictions of future changes in carbon cycling and climate.
Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Hannes Müller Schmied, Wim Thiery, Guoyong Leng, Peter Burek, Xingcai Liu, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Manolis Grillakis, Simon Newland Gosling, Yusuke Satoh, Oldrich Rakovec, Tobias Stacke, Jinfeng Chang, Niko Wanders, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Tim Trautmann, Ganquan Mao, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Luis Samaniego, Yoshihide Wada, Vimal Mishra, Junguo Liu, Petra Döll, Fang Zhao, Anne Gädeke, Sam S. Rabin, and Florian Herz
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3843–3878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse water storage compartments, water flows, and human water use sectors included in 16 global water models that provide simulations for the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. We develop a standard writing style for the model equations. We conclude that even though hydrologic processes are often based on similar equations, in the end these equations have been adjusted, or the models have used different values for specific parameters or specific variables.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Chunjing Qiu, Philippe Ciais, Rona L. Thompson, Philippe Peylin, Matthew J. McGrath, Efisio Solazzo, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Peter Bergamaschi, Dominik Brunner, Glen P. Peters, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, David Bastviken, Aki Tsuruta, Wilfried Winiwarter, Prabir K. Patra, Matthias Kuhnert, Gabriel D. Oreggioni, Monica Crippa, Marielle Saunois, Lucia Perugini, Tiina Markkanen, Tuula Aalto, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao, Chris Wilson, Giulia Conchedda, Dirk Günther, Adrian Leip, Pete Smith, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Antti Leppänen, Alistair J. Manning, Joe McNorton, Patrick Brockmann, and Albertus Johannes Dolman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2307–2362, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2307-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2307-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study is topical and provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of data availability from bottom-up and top-down CH4 and N2O emissions in the EU27 and UK. The data integrate recent emission inventories with process-based model data and regional/global inversions for the European domain, aiming at reconciling them with official country-level UNFCCC national GHG inventories in support to policy and to facilitate real-time verification procedures.
Yan Sun, Daniel S. Goll, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Betrand Guenet, Julian Helfenstein, Yuanyuan Huang, Ronny Lauerwald, Fabienne Maignan, Victoria Naipal, Yilong Wang, Hui Yang, and Haicheng Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1987–2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1987-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1987-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the performance of the nutrient-enabled version of the land surface model ORCHIDEE-CNP v1.2 against remote sensing, ground-based measurement networks and ecological databases. The simulated carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes among different spatial scales are generally in good agreement with data-driven estimates. However, the recent carbon sink in the Northern Hemisphere is substantially underestimated. Potential causes and model development priorities are discussed.
Robert Reinecke, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tim Trautmann, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Peter Burek, Martina Flörke, Simon N. Gosling, Manolis Grillakis, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Wim Thiery, Yoshihide Wada, Satoh Yusuke, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 787–810, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Billions of people rely on groundwater as an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Groundwater recharge is the primary process of regenerating groundwater resources. We find that groundwater recharge will increase in northern Europe by about 19 % and decrease by 10 % in the Amazon with 3 °C global warming. In the Mediterranean, a 2 °C warming has already lead to a reduction in recharge by 38 %. However, these model predictions are uncertain.
Adam Hastie, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, Fabrice Papa, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-37-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We used a model of the Congo Basin to investigate the transfer of carbon (C) from land (vegetation and soils) to inland waters. We estimate that leaching of C to inland waters, emissions of CO2 from the water surface, and the export of C to the coast have all increased over the last century, driven by increasing atmospheric CO2 levels and climate change. We predict that these trends may continue through the 21st century and call for long-term monitoring of these fluxes.
Lena R. Boysen, Victor Brovkin, Julia Pongratz, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Nicolas Vuichard, Philippe Peylin, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yanwu Zhang, Matthias Rocher, Christine Delire, Roland Séférian, Vivek K. Arora, Lars Nieradzik, Peter Anthoni, Wim Thiery, Marysa M. Laguë, Deborah Lawrence, and Min-Hui Lo
Biogeosciences, 17, 5615–5638, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We find a biogeophysically induced global cooling with strong carbon losses in a 20 million square kilometre idealized deforestation experiment performed by nine CMIP6 Earth system models. It takes many decades for the temperature signal to emerge, with non-local effects playing an important role. Despite a consistent experimental setup, models diverge substantially in their climate responses. This study offers unprecedented insights for understanding land use change effects in CMIP6 models.
Jinshi Jian, Xuan Du, Ryan D. Stewart, Zeli Tan, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-283, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-283, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Field soil loss due to surface runoff observations were compiled into a global database (SoilErosionDB). The database focuses on three erosion-related metrics – surface runoff, soil erosion, and nutrient leaching – and also records background information. Data from 99 geographic sites and 22 countries around the world have been compiled into SoilErosionDB. SoilErosionDB aims to be a data framework for the scientific community to share field-based soil erosion measurements.
Peter Landschützer, Goulven G. Laruelle, Alizee Roobaert, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2537–2553, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2537-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2537-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In recent years, multiple estimates of the global air–sea CO2 flux emerged from upscaling shipboard pCO2 measurements. They are however limited to the open-ocean domain and do not consider the coastal ocean, i.e. a significant marine sink for CO2. We build towards an integrated pCO2 product that combines both the open-ocean and coastal-ocean domain and focus on the evaluation of the common overlap area of these products and how well the aquatic continuum is represented in the new climatology.
Cited articles
Aben, R. C. H., Barros, N., van Donk, E., Frenken, T., Hilt, S., Kazanjian, G., Lamers, L. P. M., Peeters, E. T. H. M., Roelofs, J. G. M., de Senerpont Domis, L. N., Stephan, S., Velthuis, M., Van de Waal, D. B., Wik, M., Thornton, B. F., Wilkinson, J., DelSontro, T., and Kosten, S.: Cross continental increase in methane ebullition under climate change, Nat. Commun., 8, 1682, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01535-y, 2017.
Arístegui, J., Agustí, S., and Duarte, C. M.: Respiration in the dark ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1041, https:///doi.org/10.1029/2002GL016227, 2003.
Bastviken, D.: Methane, in: Encyclopedia of inland waters (Second Edition), edited by: Mehner, T. and Tockner, K., Oxford, Elsevier, 136–154, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-819166-8.00147-X, 2022.
Bastviken, D., Cole, J., Pace, M., and Tranvik, L.: Methane emissions from lakes: Dependence of lake characteristics, two regional assessments, and a global estimate, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 18, GB4009, https//doi/org/10.1029/2004GB002238, 2004.
Bastviken, D., Tranvik L. J., Downing, J. A., Crill, P. M., and Enrich-Prast, A.: Freshwater methane emissions offset the continental carbon sink, Science, 331, 50, https//doi/org/10.1126/science.1196808, 2011.
Behrenfeld, M. J. and Falkowski P. G.: Photosynthetic rates derived from satellite-based chlorophyll concentration, Limnol. Oceanogr., 42, https//doi/org/10.4319/lo.1997.42.1.0001, 1997.
Bodmer, P., Bors, C., Liu, L., and Lorke, A.: Large sediment methane production potential in reservoirs compared to lakes and rivers, Limnol. Oceanogr., https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.70063, 2025.
Boehrer, B. and Schultze, M.: Stratification of lakes, Rev. Geophys., 46, 2006RG000210, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006RG000210, 2008.
Bouffard, D., Doda, T., Ramón, C. L., and Ulloa, H. N.: Thermally driven cross-shore flows in stratified basins: a review on the thermal siphon dynamics, Flow, 5, https://doi.org/10.1017/flo.2024.31, 2025.
Bouwman, A. F., Beusen, A. H. W., and Billen G.: Human alteration of the global nitrogen and phosphorus soil balances for the period 1970–2050, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 23, GB0A04, https//doi/org/10.1029/2009GB003576, 2009.
Canadell, J. G., Monteiro, P. M. S., Costa, M. H., Cotrim da Cunha, L., Cox, P. M., Eliseev, A. V., Henson, S., Ishii, M., Jaccard, S., Koven, C., Lohila, A., Patra, P. K., Piao, S., Rogelj, J., Syampungani, S., Zaehle, S., and Zickfeld, K.: Global carbon and other biogeochemical cycles and feedbacks, In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 673–816, https//doi/org/10.1017/9781009157896.007, 2021.
Carlson, C. A., Ducklow, H. W., and Michaels, A. F.: Annual flux of dissolved organic carbon from the euphotic zone in the northwestern Sargasso Sea, Nature, 397, 405–408, https://doi.org/10.1038/371405a0, 1994.
Cole, J. J. and Caraco, N. F.: Atmospheric exchange of carbon dioxide in a low-wind oligotrophic lake measured by the addition of SF6, Limnol. Oceanogr., 4, https//doi/org/ 10.4319/lo.1998.43.4.0647, 1998.
Deemer, B. R. and Holgerson, M. A.: Drivers of methane flux differ between lakes and reservoirs, complicating global upscaling efforts, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 126, e2019JG005600, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JG005600, 2021.
Deemer, B. R., Harrison, J. A., Li, S., Beaulieu, J. J., DelSontro, T., Barros, N., Bezerra-Neto, J. F., Powers, S. M., dos Santos, M. A., and Vonk, J. A.: Greenhouse gas emissions from reservoir water surfaces: A new global synthesis, Bioscience, 66, 949–964, https//doi/org/ 10.1093/biosci/biw117, 2016.
DelSontro, T., Beaulieu, J. J., and Downing, J. A.: Greenhouse gas emissions from lakes and impoundments: Upscaling in the face of global change, Limnol. Oceanogr. Lett., 3, 64–75, https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.10073, 2018.
Delwiche, K. and Hemond, H. F.: An enhanced bubble size sensor for long-term ebullition studies, Limnol. Oceanogr. Methods, 15, 821–835, https://doi.org/10.1002/lom3.10201, 2017
Denfeld, B. A., Baulch, H. M., del Giorgio, P. A., Hampton, S. E., and Karlsson, J.: A synthesis of carbon dioxide and methane dynamics during the ice-covered period of northern lakes, Limnol. Oceanogr. Lett., 3, 117–131, https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.10079, 2018.
Doda, T., Ramón, C. L., Ulloa, H., N., Brennwald, M. S., Kipfer, R., Perga M.-E., Wüest, A., Schubert, C. J., and Bouffard, D.: Lake surface cooling drives littoral-pelagic exchange of dissolved gases, Sci. Adv., 10, eadi0617, https//doi/org/10.1126/sciadv.adi0617, 2024.
Dong, J., Fox-Kemper, B., Zhang, H., and Dong, C.: The Scale of Submesoscale Baroclinic Instability Globally, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 50, 2649–2667, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-20-0043.1, 2020.
Feng, M.: myFeng818/FLaMe-model-v1.0: FLaMe-model-v1.0 (v1.0), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16881039, 2025.
Frieler, K., Volkholz, J., Lange, S., Schewe, J., Mengel, M., del Rocío Rivas López, M., Otto, C., Reyer, C. P. O., Karger, D. N., Malle, J. T., Treu, S., Menz, C., Blanchard, J. L., Harrison, C. S., Petrik, C. M., Eddy, T. D., Ortega-Cisneros, K., Novaglio, C., Rousseau, Y., Watson, R. A., Stock, C., Liu, X., Heneghan, R., Tittensor, D., Maury, O., Büchner, M., Vogt, T., Wang, T., Sun, F., Sauer, I. J., Koch, J., Vanderkelen, I., Jägermeyr, J., Müller, C., Rabin, S., Klar, J., Vega del Valle, I. D., Lasslop, G., Chadburn, S., Burke, E., Gallego-Sala, A., Smith, N., Chang, J., Hantson, S., Burton, C., Gädeke, A., Li, F., Gosling, S. N., Müller Schmied, H., Hattermann, F., Wang, J., Yao, F., Hickler, T., Marcé, R., Pierson, D., Thiery, W., Mercado-Bettín, D., Ladwig, R., Ayala-Zamora, A. I., Forrest, M., and Bechtold, M.: Scenario setup and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a), Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, 2024.
Forster, P. M., Smith, C., Walsh, T., Lamb, W. F., Lamboll, R., Hall, B., Hauser, M., Ribes, A., Rosen, D., Gillett, N. P., Palmer, M. D., Rogelj, J., von Schuckmann, K., Trewin, B., Allen, M., Andrew, R., Betts, R. A., Borger, A., Boyer, T., Broersma, J. A., Buontempo, C., Burgess, S., Cagnazzo, C., Cheng, L., Friedlingstein, P., Gettelman, A., Gütschow, J., Ishii, M., Jenkins, S., Lan, X., Morice, C., Mühle, J., Kadow, C., Kennedy, J., Killick, R. E., Krummel, P. B., Minx, J. C., Myhre, G., Naik, V., Peters, G. P., Pirani, A., Pongratz, J., Schleussner, C.-F., Seneviratne, S. I., Szopa, S., Thorne, P., Kovilakam, M. V. M., Majamäki, E., Jalkanen, J.-P., van Marle, M., Hoesly, R. M., Rohde, R., Schumacher, D., van der Werf, G., Vose, R., Zickfeld, K., Zhang, X., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Zhai, P.: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2625–2658, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, 2024.
Garnaud, C., MacKay, M., and Fortin, V.: A one-dimensional lake model in ECCC's land surface prediction system, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 14, e2021MS002861, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002861, 2022.
Gatley, D. P., Herrmann, S., and Kretzschmar, H. J.: A twenty-first century molar mass for dry air, HVAC&R Research, 14, 655–66, https://doi.org/10.1080/10789669.2008.10391032, 2008.
Golub, M., Thiery, W., Marcé, R., Pierson, D., Vanderkelen, I., Mercado-Bettin, D., Woolway, R. I., Grant, L., Jennings, E., Kraemer, B. M., Schewe, J., Zhao, F., Frieler, K., Mengel, M., Bogomolov, V. Y., Bouffard, D., Côté, M., Couture, R.-M., Debolskiy, A. V., Droppers, B., Gal, G., Guo, M., Janssen, A. B. G., Kirillin, G., Ladwig, R., Magee, M., Moore, T., Perroud, M., Piccolroaz, S., Raaman Vinnaa, L., Schmid, M., Shatwell, T., Stepanenko, V. M., Tan, Z., Woodward, B., Yao, H., Adrian, R., Allan, M., Anneville, O., Arvola, L., Atkins, K., Boegman, L., Carey, C., Christianson, K., de Eyto, E., DeGasperi, C., Grechushnikova, M., Hejzlar, J., Joehnk, K., Jones, I. D., Laas, A., Mackay, E. B., Mammarella, I., Markensten, H., McBride, C., Özkundakci, D., Potes, M., Rinke, K., Robertson, D., Rusak, J. A., Salgado, R., van der Linden, L., Verburg, P., Wain, D., Ward, N. K., Wollrab, S., and Zdorovennova, G.: A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4597–4623, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022, 2022.
Grasset, C., Mendonça, R., Villamor Saucedo, G., Bastviken, D., Roland, F., and Sobek, S.: Large but variable methane production in anoxic freshwater sediment upon addition of allochthonous and autochthonous organic matter. Limnol. Oceanogr., 63, 1488–1501, https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.10786, 2018.
Grossart, H., Frindte, K., Dziallas, C., Eckert, W., and Tang, K. W.: Microbial methane production in oxygenated water column of an oligotrophic lake, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 19657–19661, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1110716108, 2011.
Guillemette, F., von Wachenfeldt, E., Kothawala, D. N., Bastviken, D., and Tranvik, L. J.: Preferential sequestration of terrestrial organic matter in boreal lake sediments, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 122, 863–874, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JG003735, 2017.
Guildford, S. J. and Hecky, R. E.: Total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and nutrient limitation in lakes and oceans: Is there a common relationship? Limnology and Oceanography, 45, 1213–1223, https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2000.45.6.1213, 2000.
Guo, M., Zhuang, Q., Tan, Z., Shurpali, N., Juutinen, S., Kortelainen, P., and Martikainen, P. J.: Rising methane emissions from boreal lakes due to increasing ice-free days. Environmental Research Letters, 15, 064008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8254, 2020.
Hanson, P. C., Hamilton, D. P., Stanley, E. H., Preston, N., Langman, O. C., and Kara, E. L.: Fate of allochthonous dissolved organic carbon in lakes: A quantitative Approach, PLoS One, 6, e21884, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0021884, 2011.
Hanson, P. C., Buffam, I., Rusak, J. A., Stanley, E. H., and Watras, C.: Quantifying lake allochthonous organic carbon budgets using a simple equilibrium model, Limnol. Oceanogr., 59, https//doi.org/10.4319/lo.2014.59.1.0167, 2014.
Holgerson, M. and Raymond, P.: Large contribution to inland water CO2 and CH4 emissions from very small ponds, Nat. Geosci., 9, 222–226, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2654, 2016.
Imberger, J.: The diurnal mixed layer, Limnol. Oceanogr., 30, 737–770, https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.1985.30.4.0737, 1985.
Imboden, D. M. and Wüest, A.: Mixing mechanisms in lakes, in: Physics and chemistry of lakes, edited by: Lerman, A., Imboden, D. M., and Gat, J. R., Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-85132-2_4, 1995.
Jackson, R., Saunois, M., Bousquet, P., Canadell, J. G., Poulter, B., Stavert, A. R., Bergamaschi, P., Niwa, Y., Segers, A., and Tsuruta, A.: Increasing anthropogenic methane emissions arise equally from agricultural and fossil fuel sources, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 071002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9ed2, 2020.
Jackson, R. B., Saunois, M., Martinez, A., Canadell, J. G., Yu, X., Li, M., Poulter, B., Raymond, P. A., Regnier, P., Ciais, P., Davis, S. J., and Patra, P. K.: Human activities now fuel two-thirds of global methane emissions, Environ. Res. Lett., 19, 101002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6463, 2024.
Johnson, M. S., Matthews, E., Du, J., Genovese, V., and Bastviken, D.: Methane emission from global lakes: New spatiotemporal data and observation-driven modeling of methane dynamics indicates lower emissions, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 127, e2022JG006793, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JG006793, 2022.
Lan, X., Thoning, K. W., and Dlugokencky, E. J.: Trends in globally-averaged CH4, N2O, and SF6 determined from NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory measurements, https://doi.org/10.15138/P8XG-AA10, 2024
Langenegger, T., Vachon, D., Donis, D., and McGinnis, D. F.: What the bubble knows: Lake methane dynamics revealed by sediment gas bubble composition, Limnol. Oceanogr., 64, 1526–1544, https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.11133, 2019.
Lauerwald, R., Regnier, P., Figueiredo, V., Enrich-Prast, A., Bastviken, D., and Lehner, B.: Natural lakes are a minor global source of N2O to the atmosphere, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 33, 1564–1581, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GB006261, 2019.
Lauerwald, R., Allen, G. H., Deemer, B. R., Liu, S., Maavara, T., Raymond, P., Alcott, L., Bastviken, D., Hastie, A., Holgerson, M. A., Johnson, M. S., Lehner, B., Lin, P., Marzadri, A., Ran, L., Tian, H., Yang, X., Yao, Y., and Regnier, P.: Inland water greenhouse gas budgets for RECCAP2: 2. Regionalization and homogenization of estimates, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 37, e2022GB007658, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GB007658, 2023.
Lewis, W. M.: Global primary production of lakes: 19th Baldi Memorial Lecture, Inland Waters, 1, 1–28, https://doi.org/10.5268/IW-1.1.384, 2011.
Liikanen, A., Murtoniemi, T., Tanskanen, H., Väisänen, T., and Martikainen, P. J.: Effects of temperature and oxygen availability on greenhouse gas and nutrient dynamics in sediment of a eutrophic mid-boreal lake, Biogeochemistry, 59, 269–286, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1016015526712, 2002
Maavara, T., Lauerwald, R., Regnier, P., and Van Cappellen, P.: Global perturbation of organic carbon cycling by river damming, Nat. Commun., 8, 15347, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms15347, 2017.
Maavara, T., Lauerwald, R., Laruelle, G. G., Akbarzadeh, Z., Bouskill, N. J., Van Cappellen, P., and Regnier, P. Nitrous oxide emissions from inland waters: Are IPCC estimates too high?, Glob. Change Biol., 25, 473–448, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14504, 2019.
MacKay, M. D.: A process–oriented small lake scheme for coupled climate modeling applications, J. Hydrometeorol., 13, 1911–1924, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-11-0116.1, 2012.
MacKay, M. D., Verseghy, D. L., Fortin, V., and Rennie, M. D.: Wintertime simulations of a boreal lake with the Canadian Small Lake Model, J. Hydrometeorol., 18, 2143–2160, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0268.1, 2017.
MacIntyre, S., Bastviken, D., Arneborg, L., Crowe, A. T., Karlsson, J., Andersson, A., Gålfalk, M., Rutgersson, A., Podgrajsek, E. and Melack, J. M.: Turbulence in a small boreal lake: Consequences for air-water gas exchange, Limnol. Oceanogr., 66, 827–854, https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.11645, 2021.
Martin, J. H., Knauer, G. A., Karl, D. M., and Broenkow, W. W.: VERTEX: carbon cycling in the northeast Pacific, Deep-Sea. Res. A., 34, 267–285, https://doi.org/10.1016/0198-0149(87)90086-0, 1987.
Mayorga, E., Seitzinger, S. P., Harrison, J. A., Dumont, E. Beusen, A. H. W., Bouwman, A. F., Fekete, B. M., Kroeze, C., and Van Drecht, G.: Global Nutrient Export from WaterSheds 2 (NEWS 2): Model development and implementation, Environ. Model. Softw., 25, 837–853, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.01.007, 2010.
Mayr, M. J., Zimmermann, M., Dey, J., Brand, A., Wehrli, B. and Bürgmann, H.: Growth and rapid succession of methanotrophs effectively limit methane release during lake overturn, Commun. Biol., 3, 108, https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-020-0838-z, 2020.
McGinnis, D. F., Greinert, J., Artemov, Y., Beaubien, S. E., and Wüest, A.: Fate of rising methane bubbles in stratified waters: How much methane reaches the atmosphere?, J. Geophys. Res., 111, C09007, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JC003183, 2006.
Mendonça, R., Müller, R. A., Clow, D., Verpoorter, C., Raymond, P., Tranvik, L. J., and Sobek, S.: Organic carbon burial in global lakes and reservoirs, Nat. Commun., 8, 1694, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01789-6, 2017.
Messager, M., Lehner, B., Grill, G., Nedeva, I., and Schmitt, O.: Estimating the volume and age of water stored in global lakes using a geo-statistical approach, Nat. Commun., 7, 13603, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms13603, 2016.
Mostovaya, A., Wind-Hansen, M., Rousteau, P., Bristow, L. A., and Thamdrup, B.: Sulfate- and iron-dependent anaerobic methane oxidation occurring side-by-side in freshwater lake sediment, Limnol. Oceanogr., 67, 231–246, https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.11988, 2022.
Natchimuthu, S., Sundgren, I., Gålfalk, M., Klemedtsson, L., and Bastviken, D.: Spatiotemporal variability of lake pCO2 and CO2 fluxes in a hemiboreal catchment, J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci., 122, 30–49, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JG003449, 2017.
Pajala, G., Sawakuchi, H. O., Rudberg, D., Schenk, J., Sieczko, A., Gålfalk, M., Seekell, D., Sundgren, I., Duc, N. T., Karlsson, J., and Bastviken, D.: The effects of water column dissolved oxygen concentrations on lake methane emissions – Results from a whole-lake oxygenation experiment, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 128, e2022JG007185, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jg007185, 2023.
Petrescu, A. M. R., Qiu, C., Ciais, P., Thompson, R. L., Peylin, P., McGrath, M. J., Solazzo, E., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Tubiello, F. N., Bergamaschi, P., Brunner, D., Peters, G. P., Höglund-Isaksson, L., Regnier, P., Lauerwald, R., Bastviken, D., Tsuruta, A., Winiwarter, W., Patra, P. K., Kuhnert, M., Oreggioni, G. D., Crippa, M., Saunois, M., Perugini, L., Markkanen, T., Aalto, T., Groot Zwaaftink, C. D., Tian, H., Yao, Y., Wilson, C., Conchedda, G., Günther, D., Leip, A., Smith, P., Haussaire, J.-M., Leppänen, A., Manning, A. J., McNorton, J., Brockmann, P., and Dolman, A. J.: The consolidated European synthesis of CH4 and N2O emissions for the European Union and United Kingdom: 1990–2017, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2307–2362, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2307-2021, 2021.
Petrescu, A. M. R., Qiu, C., McGrath, M. J., Peylin, P., Peters, G. P., Ciais, P., Thompson, R. L., Tsuruta, A., Brunner, D., Kuhnert, M., Matthews, B., Palmer, P. I., Tarasova, O., Regnier, P., Lauerwald, R., Bastviken, D., Höglund-Isaksson, L., Winiwarter, W., Etiope, G., Aalto, T., Balsamo, G., Bastrikov, V., Berchet, A., Brockmann, P., Ciotoli, G., Conchedda, G., Crippa, M., Dentener, F., Groot Zwaaftink, C. D., Guizzardi, D., Günther, D., Haussaire, J.-M., Houweling, S., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Kouyate, M., Leip, A., Leppänen, A., Lugato, E., Maisonnier, M., Manning, A. J., Markkanen, T., McNorton, J., Muntean, M., Oreggioni, G. D., Patra, P. K., Perugini, L., Pison, I., Raivonen, M. T., Saunois, M., Segers, A. J., Smith, P., Solazzo, E., Tian, H., Tubiello, F. N., Vesala, T., van der Werf, G. R., Wilson, C., and Zaehle, S.: The consolidated European synthesis of CH4 and N2O emissions for the European Union and United Kingdom: 1990–2019, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1197–1268, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, 2023.
Regnier, P., Dale, A. W., Arndt, S., LaRowe, D. E., Mogollón, J., and Van Cappellen, P.: Quantitative analysis of anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) in marine sediments: A modeling perspective, Earth-Sci. Rev., 106, 105–130, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2011.01.002, 2011.
Reynolds, C. S.: The ecology of phytoplankton, Cambridge University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511542145, 2006.
Rinta, P., Bastviken, D. Schilder, J., van Hardenbroek, M., Stötter, T., and Heiri, O.: Higher Late Summer Methane Emission from Central Than Northern European Lakes, J. Limnol., 76, https://doi.org/10.4081/jlimnol.2016.1475, 2017.
Rodríguez-Velasco, E., Peralta-Maraver, I., Martínez-García, A., García-Alguacil, M., Picazo, F., Gonçalves, R. J., Ramón, C. L., Morales-Baquero, R., Rueda, F. J., and Reche, I.: Idiosyncratic phenology of greenhouse gas emissions in a Mediterranean reservoir, Limnol. Oceanogr. Lett., 9, 364–375, https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.10409, 2024.
Rosentreter, J. A., Borges, A. V., Deemer, B. R., Holgerson, M. A., Liu, S., Song, C., Melack, J., Raymond, P. A., Duarte, C. M., Allen, G. H., Olefeldt, D., Poulter, B., Battin, T. I., and Eyre, B. D.: Half of global methane emissions come from highly variable aquatic ecosystem sources, Nat. Geosci., 14, 225–230, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00715-2, 2021.
Ruardij, P. and Van Raaphorst, W.: Benthic nutrient regeneration in the ERSEM ecosystem model of the North Sea, Neth. J. Sea Res., 33, 453–483, https://doi.org/10.1016/0077-7579(95)90057-8, 1995.
Saunois, M., Martinez, A., Poulter, B., Zhang, Z., Raymond, P. A., Regnier, P., Canadell, J. G., Jackson, R. B., Patra, P. K., Bousquet, P., Ciais, P., Dlugokencky, E. J., Lan, X., Allen, G. H., Bastviken, D., Beerling, D. J., Belikov, D. A., Blake, D. R., Castaldi, S., Crippa, M., Deemer, B. R., Dennison, F., Etiope, G., Gedney, N., Höglund-Isaksson, L., Holgerson, M. A., Hopcroft, P. O., Hugelius, G., Ito, A., Jain, A. K., Janardanan, R., Johnson, M. S., Kleinen, T., Krummel, P. B., Lauerwald, R., Li, T., Liu, X., McDonald, K. C., Melton, J. R., Mühle, J., Müller, J., Murguia-Flores, F., Niwa, Y., Noce, S., Pan, S., Parker, R. J., Peng, C., Ramonet, M., Riley, W. J., Rocher-Ros, G., Rosentreter, J. A., Sasakawa, M., Segers, A., Smith, S. J., Stanley, E. H., Thanwerdas, J., Tian, H., Tsuruta, A., Tubiello, F. N., Weber, T. S., van der Werf, G. R., Worthy, D. E. J., Xi, Y., Yoshida, Y., Zhang, W., Zheng, B., Zhu, Q., Zhu, Q., and Zhuang, Q.: Global Methane Budget 2000–2020, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 1873–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1873-2025, 2025.
Schindler, D. W.: Evolution of Phosphorus Limitation in Lakes, Science, 195, 260–262, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.195.4275.260, 1977.
Søndergaard, M., Lauridsen, T. L., Johansson, L. S., and Jeppesen, E.: Nitrogen or phosphorus limitation in lakes and its impact on phytoplankton biomass and submerged macrophyte cover, Hydrobiologia 795, 35–48, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-017-3110-x, 2017.
Stavert, A. R., Saunois, M., Canadell, J. G., Canadell, J. G., Poulter, B., Jackson, R. B., Regnier, P., Lauerwald, R., Raymond, P. A., Allen, G. H., Patra, P. K., Bergamaschi, P., Bousquet, P., Chandra, N., Ciais, P., Gustafson, A., Ishizawa, M., Ito, A., Kleinen, T., Maksyutov, S., McNorton, J., Melton, J. R., Müller, J., Niwa, Y., Peng, S., Riley, W. J., Segers, A., Tian, H., Tsuruta, A., Yin, Y., Zhang, Z., Zheng, B., and Zhuang, Q.: Regional trends and drivers of the global methane budget, Glob. Change Biol., 28, 182–200, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15901, 2021.
Stefan, H. G. and Fang, X.: Dissolved oxygen model for regional lake analysis, Ecological Modelling, 71, 37–68, https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3800(94)90075-2, 1994.
Stepanenko, V., Mammarella, I., Ojala, A., Miettinen, H., Lykosov, V., and Vesala, T.: LAKE 2.0: a model for temperature, methane, carbon dioxide and oxygen dynamics in lakes, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1977–2006, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1977-2016, 2016.
Su, G., Zopfi, J., Yao, H., Steinle, L., Niemann, H., and Lehmann, M. F.: Manganese/iron-supported sulfate-dependent anaerobic oxidation of methane by archaea in lake sediments, Limnol. Oceanogr., 65, 863–875, https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.11354, 2020.
Tan, Z., Zhuang, Q., and Anthony, K. W.: Modeling methane emissions from arctic lakes: Model development and site-level study, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 7, 459–483, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014MS000344, 2015.
Tan, Z., Zhuang, Q., Shurpali, N. J., Marushchak, M. E., Biasi, C., Eugster, W., and Anthony K. W.: Modeling CO2 emissions from Arctic lakes: Model development and site-level study, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 9, 2190–2213, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS001028, 2017.
Tan, Z., Yao, H., Melack, J., Grossart, H.-P., Jansen, J., Balathandayuthabani, S., Sargsyan, K., and Leung, L. R.: A lake biogeochemistry model for global methane emissions: Model development, site-level validation, and global applicability, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 16, e2024MS004275, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004275, 2024.
Thottathil, S. D., Reis, P. C. J., and Prairie, Y. T.: Methane oxidation kinetics in northern freshwater lakes, Biogeochemistry, 143, 105–116, https://www.jstor.org/stable/48701400 (last access: 1 December 2024), 2019.
Thullner, M. and Regnier, P.: Microbial controls on the biogeochemical dynamics in the subsurface, Rev. Mineral. Geochem., 85, 265–302, https://doi.org/10.2138/rmg.2019.85.9, 2019.
Van Drecht, G., Bouwman, A. F., Harrison, J., and Knoop, J. M.: Global nitrogen and phosphate in urban wastewater for the period 1970 to 2050, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 23, GB0A03, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GB003458, 2009.
Varadharajan, C.: Magnitude and spatio-temporal variability of methane emissions from a eutrophic freshwater lake, PhD thesis, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/54879 (last access: 15 March 2025), 2009.
Verseghy, D. L. and MacKay, M. D.: Offline implementation and evaluation of the Canadian Small Lake Model with the Canadian Land Surface Scheme over Western Canada, J. Hydrometeorol., 18, 1563–1582, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0272.1, 2017.
Wanninkhof, R.: Relationship between wind speed and gas exchange over the ocean revisited, Limnol. Oceanogr. Methods, 12, https://doi.org/10.4319/lom.2014.12.351, 2014.
Wanninkhof, R., Asher, W. E., Ho, D. T., Sweeney, C., and McGillis, W. R.: Advances in quantifying air-sea gas exchange and environmental forcing, Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 1, 213–244, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.marine.010908.163742, 2009.
Wetzel, R. G.: Limnology: Lake and river ecosystems, 3rd edn., Academic Press, San Diego, p. 389, https://doi.org/10.1016/C2009-0-02112-6, 2001.
William, R., Georgiy, K., and Matti, L.: Basin-scale circulation and heat fluxes in ice-covered lakes, Limnol. Oceanogr., 59, https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2014.59.2.0445, 2014.
Zhuang, Q., Guo, M., Melack, J.M., Lan, X., Tan, Z., Oh, Y., and Leung, L. R.: Current and future global lake methane emissions: A process-based modeling analysis, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 128, e2022JG007137, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JG007137, 2023.
Zimmermann, M., Mayr, M. J., Bouffard, D., Eugster, W., Steinsberger, T., Wehrli, B., Brand, A., and Bürgmann, H.: Lake overturn as a key driver for methane oxidation, bioRxiv [preprint], https://doi.org/10.1101/689182, 2019.
Short summary
A new process-based modelling framework, FLaMe-v1.0 (Fluxes of Lake Methane version 1.0), is developed to simulate methane (CH4) emissions from lakes at large scales. FLaMe couples the dynamics of organic carbon, oxygen and methane in lakes and rests on an innovative, computationally efficient lake clustering approach for the simulation of CH4 emissions across a large number of lakes. The model evaluation suggests that FLaMe captures the sub-annual and spatial variability of CH4 emissions well.
A new process-based modelling framework, FLaMe-v1.0 (Fluxes of Lake Methane version 1.0), is...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint