Seamless seasonal to multi-annual predictions of temperature and Standardized Precipitation Index by constraining transient climate model simulations

Acosta Navarro, Juan C.; Aranyossy, Alvise; De Luca, Paolo; Donat, Markus G.; Hrast Essenfelder, Arthur; Mahmood, Rashed; Toreti, Andrea; Volpi, Danila

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1723-2025

Articles | Volume 16, issue 5

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1723-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1723-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 16, issue 5

Research article

|

15 Oct 2025

Research article |

| 15 Oct 2025

Seamless seasonal to multi-annual predictions of temperature and Standardized Precipitation Index by constraining transient climate model simulations

Juan C. Acosta Navarro, Alvise Aranyossy, Paolo De Luca, Markus G. Donat, Arthur Hrast Essenfelder, Rashed Mahmood, Andrea Toreti, and Danila Volpi

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1723-2025-supplement

Data sets

The Climate Data Guide: Global surface temperatures: BEST: Berkeley Earth Surface Temperatures K. Cowtan and National Center for Atmospheric Research Staff https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/global-surface-temperatures-best-berkeley-earth-surface-temperatures

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Short summary

A computationally inexpensive climate model analog method yields skillful climate predictions across timescales, from seasons to multiple years, complementing existing climate prediction systems and potentially providing valuable information for sectors like agriculture and energy.