Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1409-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1409-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
Research article
 | 
04 Sep 2025
Research article |  | 04 Sep 2025

Future changes in runoff over western and central Europe: disentangling the hydrological behavior of CMIP6 models

Juliette Deman and Julien Boé

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Short summary
This article investigates the large uncertainties in future runoff changes over western and central Europe in projections from global climate models under a high-emissions scenario. Two main types of response are identified among the models, with half of them projecting a decrease in annual runoff and the other half showing little or no change. The outlier behavior observed in some models can be largely attributed to changes in large-scale circulation or to the physiological effect of CO2.
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