Future changes in runoff over western and central Europe: disentangling the hydrological behavior of CMIP6 models

Deman, Juliette; Boé, Julien

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1409-2025

Articles | Volume 16, issue 5

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1409-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1409-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 16, issue 5

Research article

|

04 Sep 2025

Research article |

| 04 Sep 2025

Future changes in runoff over western and central Europe: disentangling the hydrological behavior of CMIP6 models

Juliette Deman and Julien Boé

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1409-2025-supplement

Data sets

RA5-Land hourly data from 1950 to present Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.e2161bac

GLEAM4: global land evaporation and soil moisture dataset at 0.1° resolution from 1980 to near present (https://www.gleam.eu) D. G. Miralles et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-04610-y

Version 4 of the CRU TS monthly high-resolution gridded multivariate climate dataset (https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/cru_ts_4.07/) I. Harris et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0453-3

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Short summary

This article investigates the large uncertainties in future runoff changes over western and central Europe in projections from global climate models under a high-emissions scenario. Two main types of response are identified among the models, with half of them projecting a decrease in annual runoff and the other half showing little or no change. The outlier behavior observed in some models can be largely attributed to changes in large-scale circulation or to the physiological effect of CO₂.